The Future of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Sean Dyche at Everton

Everton forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin has registered a total of just 17 goals over the last four seasons. During the second half of Everton’s goalless Premier League match against Brentford on Saturday, an Everton supporter was heard shouting, “Dyche, change it you dinosaur.” Everton manager Sean Dyche responded by introducing striker Beto and midfielder Orel Mangala soon after, but these changes proved ineffective, as the team could not overcome an opponent that had been reduced to 10 players for over 45 minutes. As December approaches, Everton faces upcoming fixtures against Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal. The club has not scored in its last three matches, and its number nine, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, has not found the net in his previous eight appearances. Commenting on the team’s goal drought, with only 10 goals scored in 12 games this season, Dyche stated, “It’s been a reality for a long time.” He added, “Developing people who score goals is the toughest challenge as a manager. “We were conceding far too many so we had to change that. We changed it and now we have to stay effective on the offensive side. “We have to find killer moments more often than not and we didn’t. It’s been a long-standing thing here. Most managers do it by chequebook, but we can’t do that so the development continues.” Everton’s number nine, Calvert-Lewin, transferred to the club from Sheffield United in 2016 for £1.5m, and has since accumulated 56 goals in 225 Premier League matches. His most productive season occurred in 2020-21 under Carlo Ancelotti, when he scored 21 goals in 39 appearances across all competitions, averaging a goal every 157 minutes. However, he has found it difficult to reproduce this performance level under successive managers Rafael Benitez, Frank Lampard, and Dyche. Persistent fitness problems and a dip in form have resulted in him scoring only five, two, and eight goals in the last three seasons, respectively, in addition to two goals this current term. His current contract is set to conclude in the summer, and although discussions for a new agreement with Calvert-Lewin commenced in May, the proposed deal has yet to be signed. Sources within the club indicate they are still optimistic about reaching a consensus with the athlete. Former Everton captain Alan Stubbs informed BBC Sport, “That decision comes from Dominic.” He continued, “Everton as a club will not want to lose him for nothing, but for me, it looks like his head is elsewhere.” Stubbs concluded, “We are at a crossroads for the next chapter of Dominic’s career and for Everton to move on.” Only three years prior, Calvert-Lewin was a consistent member of the England national team under Gareth Southgate, earning 11 caps for the Three Lions and netting four goals. Throughout his Premier League career, the 27-year-old has maintained a scoring rate of a goal every 270 minutes. This statistic is comparable to Brighton forward and fellow Englishman Danny Welbeck, who scores every 268 minutes, and surpasses Tottenham’s Dominic Solanke’s rate of a goal every 292 minutes. In the current season, Calvert-Lewin has scored two goals in 12 matches, originating from an expected goal (xG) ratio of 3.89. In contrast, players such as Welbeck, Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood, and Brentford forward Yoane Wissa have exceeded their respective xG figures. Calvert-Lewin has previously been associated with potential transfers to Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea, and Newcastle attempted to secure a deal for him during the summer. He will be eligible to engage in discussions with foreign clubs starting in January. The question arises whether Everton would feel his absence significantly. The team’s win ratio remains comparable both with and without him in the lineup, recorded at 35% when he participates versus 33% when he is absent. Since Dyche assumed management in January 2023, the former Burnley coach has favored a 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1 tactical setup. This approach positions Calvert-Lewin as a solitary forward, and this perceived lack of offensive support may have negatively impacted his recent goal-scoring performance. The aforementioned call to “change it Dyche” seems to be supported by data. This season, Everton has implemented the fewest substitutions per game among all Premier League teams, with statistics indicating that the initial change typically occurs after the 60-minute mark. The manager’s disinclination to modify his tactical approach has resulted in Calvert-Lewin and fellow striker Beto starting only a single match together since the Portuguese forward’s transfer to Merseyside at the commencement of the previous season. Amid ongoing discussions regarding a club takeover, stringent financial limitations resulting in a depleted squad, and a points deduction for violating financial regulations, Dyche has successfully prevented relegation for the last two seasons. Nevertheless, the current season appears to present another struggle for survival, with Everton positioned in 15th place, merely three points clear of the relegation zone. Everton has experienced only one defeat in their last eight matches, which was a 1-0 loss against struggling Southampton. In September, club sources indicated that Dyche’s role was considered “safe,” attributing this to the credit he had accumulated for his performance during his tenure. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the takeover has left the club in an unstable condition, suggesting he will likely retain his position until the acquisition is finalized. However, the opinion among supporters and pundits regarding the 53-year-old seems to be evolving. His win rate of 32.5% is lower than that of former managers Roberto Martinez, Ronald Koeman, and Marco Silva, all of whom were dismissed. Everton supporter Mike Richards, in his weekly column for BBC Sport, wrote, “Rightly praised for the job he did in his first 18 months at the club, there is a sense within the fanbase that his race is run.” Upon the final whistle on Saturday, the prevailing sentiment was unmistakably clear, as loud jeers resonated throughout Goodison Park. Regarding the crowd’s reaction, Dyche commented, “They can direct it at whoever they want. They expect us to win. I expect us to win.” Stubbs further stated, “We are too one-dimensional and too predictable, teams can work us out easily. I see players that are tired mentally and physically drained.” When questioned about Dyche’s potential continuation as manager next season, Stubbs responded, “I personally don’t think so, the end of the season needs to be a clean slate for whoever is coming in.” With the Friedkin Group’s acquisition of the club anticipated to be finalized next month, the challenging series of matches remaining before the end of the year could significantly determine the future of Dyche’s management at Everton.