Nottingham Forest’s Current Form: An Analysis of Their Performance and Prospects

Chris Wood has accumulated 23 Premier League goals for Forest since his initial loan arrival in the 2022-23 season. This tally surpasses Stan Collymore’s 22 top-flight goals for the team and is just one goal shy of Bryan Roy’s enduring record of 24. Is Nottingham Forest exhibiting characteristics reminiscent of ‘Leicester 2016’? However, consider the following details… The overall situation can be summarized as follows: Forest currently holds the third position in the Premier League, marking their highest standing since 1998, following three consecutive victories in the top flight, a feat not achieved since 1999. Their initial 10 matches reflect Leicester’s performance at the beginning of the 2015-16 season, a period when the Foxes astonished the football world by securing the Premier League title against 5,000-1 odds. Forest’s record of five wins, four draws, and one defeat precisely matches Leicester’s equivalent record. Nevertheless, Forest boasts three additional clean sheets compared to Claudio Ranieri’s team nine years prior, along with a goal difference that is seven goals superior. Striker Chris Wood, though a distinct player, has proven as influential as Jamie Vardy, scoring eight goals. The team also possesses the second-strongest defense in the league, a significant improvement given they narrowly avoided relegation by four points last season. This video content is unavailable. The Football News Show poses the question: Is Nottingham Forest overly dependent on striker Chris Wood? Forest’s efforts to acquire an additional striker to complement and compete with Wood were unsuccessful, as Eddie Nketiah transferred from Arsenal to Crystal Palace, and Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez stayed at De Kuip. Nuno stated in September, “In the transfer window we were looking for many options that could help us. The main thing was we looked for someone who could improve us and someone who wanted to be with us. These two things are very important.” Despite initial concerns about a lack of attacking depth, Wood’s exceptional start has alleviated these worries. The 32-year-old New Zealand international has contributed over half of Forest’s 14 goals this season and has registered 22 goals in 30 Premier League starts since his permanent transfer from Newcastle in June 2023. Of those league goals, nineteen have been scored under the management of Nuno since the Portuguese coach’s arrival last December. Since December 23, 2023, only Erling Haaland of Manchester City has scored more non-penalty goals than Wood’s 18. Furthermore, Wood holds the fourth-highest conversion rate (32.8%) in the Premier League since Nuno’s appointment and is exceeding his expected goals figure (14.04) by nearly five goals. Nuno has maintained a firm approach with Wood, particularly following international commitments, describing the striker as a “competitor” who is consistently prepared. The acquisition of Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina has contributed to strengthening Forest’s defense, which was previously susceptible to set-pieces. Although Wood has been responsible for scoring goals, the club’s management consistently emphasizes that their fundamental strength originates in defense. Matz Sels, now established as the primary goalkeeper, has recorded the joint-highest number of clean sheets in the Premier League this season, alongside Andre Onana of Manchester United and Alisson Becker of Liverpool. Nikola Milenkovic’s transfer from Fiorentina, for a sum slightly below the reported £12m, appears to be a shrewd acquisition, as he has forged an effective defensive partnership with Brazilian Murillo. In the previous season, Forest allowed 23 of their 68 goals to be scored from set-pieces, which was four more than the relegated teams Luton and Sheffield United. This season, however, they have conceded only one goal from such situations. The figure from last season was nearly twice their expected set-piece goals against of 12.25, underscoring a vulnerability to corners and free-kicks. Demonstrating a significant improvement, Forest currently holds the league’s best expected goals against (xG against) figure from set-pieces this season, at merely 1.23. While attributing Forest’s success solely to the prominent defender and striker might be an oversimplification, their current strategy is undeniably effective. Since their return to the Premier League in 2022-23, Forest has been involved in controversies, with owner Evangelos Marinakis being a notable public figure. Although Forest appears to have rapidly transformed from the team that finished 17th last season after a four-point deduction, seven players from Saturday’s 3-0 victory against West Ham were also in the starting lineup for the final day win at Burnley last term. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo benefited from a pre-season this year, and despite the club making only six senior signings during the summer, defender Milenkovic and midfielder Elliot Anderson immediately enhanced the first-team’s quality. This comparatively quiet transfer period marked a departure from the summer of 2022, when Forest acquired a then-record 22 players after their promotion. The approach at the City Ground has been one of evolution rather than revolution, and despite adjustments made over the past 11 months since Nuno succeeded Steve Cooper, the team has progressed significantly from its state two years ago. During Forest’s 1-0 triumph against Crystal Palace last month, with Morgan Gibbs-White suspended, only one player from the 2022 spending spree started the match: goalkeeper Dean Henderson, who was playing for the opposing team. At the season’s outset, there was a consensus that the club required a discreet campaign, aiming for a mid-table finish to evade scrutiny after two seasons marked by difficulties, disputes, and disorder. A points deduction in March, resulting from a profit and sustainability breach, preceded a contentious social media post concerning VAR Stuart Attwell a month later, which led to the club being fined £750,000 this season. Owner Evangelos Marinakis is presently serving a five-game suspension for spitting towards officials, having lost his appeal on Monday, indicating Forest has once again avoided a low-profile existence. However, their most significant impact this season is being made through their on-field performances. Nuno rejoined the Premier League following a period in Saudi Arabia, and his appointment as Steve Cooper’s replacement last December was met with some skepticism. Although he had secured the Saudi Pro League and Super Cup titles with Al-Ittihad, his previous brief and challenging tenure at Tottenham might have led Forest supporters to feel somewhat unenthusiastic about his hiring. His four-year period at Wolves concluded when the team’s performance stagnated at Molineux, and the squad could not sustain its impressive ascent from the Championship to the Europa League quarter-finals. Yet, prior to this decline, he assembled a squad, aided by agent Jorge Mendes, featuring young talents such as Ruben Neves alongside experienced players like Joao Moutinho. He is gradually replicating this strategy at the City Ground with the introduction of six senior players, including defender Milenkovic, who has contributed to Forest’s defensive solidity, resulting in only seven goals conceded to date. Only Liverpool, with six goals conceded, has a better record. Individuals who have reported on Nuno during his tenures at Wolves, Spurs, or now Forest are aware that he is not particularly vocal in press conferences. He is a precise strategist regarding on-pitch activities, which, over the past year, has progressively enhanced Forest’s outlook, though he has also capitalized on the groundwork established by his predecessor, Cooper. Cooper’s impact and rapport were vital in securing Morgan Gibbs-White, with whom he won the Under-17 World Cup as England youth manager. Additionally, the current Leicester manager brought Wood to the club and ensured their Premier League status. Nuno has further developed this success, despite occasionally displaying emotional outbursts on the touchline. In August, he received a £40,000 fine and a one-game suspended ban for remarks made after last season’s 2-0 loss to Everton, despite pledging to curb criticism of officials. This suspension was activated in September when he was sent off for disputing Gibbs-White’s red card during the draw at Brighton, leading him to observe Forest’s last three matches from the stands.