Managerial Changes and Relegation Survival Prospects

Gary O’Neil and Russell Martin were dismissed from their managerial roles concurrently. On Sunday, two Premier League clubs opted for a change in management, dismissing their respective managers. Southampton, currently at the bottom of the league and nine points from safety, terminated the contract of Russell Martin, the manager who led them to promotion last season. Wolves, positioned five points away from safety, dismissed Gary O’Neil following his tenure of one and a half seasons. This raises the question of whether a managerial change effectively aids a team’s survival when they are situated in the relegation zone. Wolves and Southampton currently occupy the bottom two positions in the Premier League standings. Excluding the current season, teams in the drop zone have changed managers 91 times. In 36 of these instances, the teams successfully avoided relegation. This represents a 40% success rate, indicating that such a challenging decision can yield positive outcomes. Among those 36 successful cases, five teams were precisely five points from safety at the time of the managerial departure, mirroring Wolves’ current situation. Sam Allardyce successfully guided two of these five teams to safety: Blackburn in the 2008-09 season and Sunderland in 2015-16. Tony Parkes, serving as a caretaker manager, secured Blackburn’s survival from a similar precarious position in 1996-97, and Harry Redknapp led Tottenham to safety in 2008-09. Tony Pulis assisted Crystal Palace in avoiding relegation during the 2013-14 season, though they were only three points from safety when he succeeded caretaker Keith Millen. However, only one of these five occurrences took place this late in a season: when Blackburn dismissed Paul Ince on 16 December 2008 and appointed Allardyce two days later. The remaining four managerial changes involving teams five points from safety all occurred in October. A positive indicator for Wolves is their recent history as the second most recent team to change managers while in the bottom three and subsequently avoid relegation. This occurred when Julen Lopetegui took over from Bruno Lage, following an interim period with Steve Davis, just prior to the 2022 World Cup. Conversely, no team has ever changed managers while nine points or more adrift from safety and managed to avoid relegation. Indeed, only two teams have ever successfully avoided relegation after being nine or more points from safety at any point during a season. These teams were Blackburn in 1996-97, approximately a week after Parkes succeeded Ray Harford, and West Ham in 2006-07. West Ham, who had replaced Alan Pardew with Alan Curbishley earlier in that season, were 10 points from safety with nine matches remaining, yet they secured survival by winning seven of those games. Southampton has experienced success with managerial changes while in the relegation zone on three occasions: following Ian Branfoot’s departure in 1993-94, Stuart Gray’s exit in 2001-02, and Mark Hughes’s departure in 2018-19. However, this strategy proved unsuccessful for them twice in the 2022-23 season, with the departures of Ralph Hasenhuttl in November and Nathan Jones in February. Nevertheless, in none of those previous instances was the club in such a dire predicament. Furthermore, Southampton is confirmed to be at the bottom of the table at Christmas, a position from which only four teams have previously survived in Premier League history. West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester (2014-15), and Wolves (2022-23) are the four clubs that achieved this feat. Examining more recent history, over the five seasons preceding the current campaign, 16 teams changed managers while in the relegation zone, with only five of them ultimately avoiding relegation. Last season, Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United consistently occupied the bottom three positions for the majority of the season. Sheffield United made a managerial change, but Burnley and Luton did not, and all three teams were relegated.