Is Chelsea’s Defense a Hindrance to Their Title Aspirations?

“Attack wins you games – defence wins you titles,” stated legendary Premier League manager Sir Alex Ferguson, who demonstrated considerable expertise in securing the Premier League title, having guided Manchester United to 13 such victories. Even though Chelsea occupies second place in the league standings, trailing leaders Liverpool by only two points (though having played one additional match), manager Enzo Maresca consistently maintains that his team is not yet a contender for the title. The Opta predictions supercomputer further indicates that the Blues possess a lower probability of securing the league championship this season (5.8%) compared to Arsenal, who are in third position (10.4%). Chelsea currently tops the form table for the last five games and remains mathematically well within contention; therefore, the question arises as to why some observers do not consider them genuine title contenders. The potential explanation could be found in their defensive capabilities. Despite Chelsea’s substantial financial investment in the squad since its acquisition two years prior, certain areas, specifically the goalkeeper position and the defensive line, continue to present concerns. Before Wesley Fofana’s recent injury, he had been developing an effective partnership with Levi Colwill in the central defensive role. Nevertheless, at ages 24 and 21 respectively, both players are still young and lack some of the necessary experience, which is expected to accumulate over time. On the defensive flanks, Marc Cucurella has once more displayed inconsistent performances, alternating between strong play and erratic moments, while captain Reece James’ recurring fitness issues have led to disruptions across the team. Furthermore, regarding goalkeeper Robert Sanchez, whom the defenders are tasked with protecting, his performances continue to elicit strong reactions from supporters, both positive and negative. However, what do the statistical figures indicate? Somewhat unexpectedly, Chelsea shares the third-lowest position for goals conceded in the league this season (19), trailing only Liverpool (13) and Arsenal (15). Nevertheless, the frequency of these conceded goals and the caliber of scoring opportunities allowed to opponents are points of concern. As per Opta data, the Blues’ expected goals against (xGA) figure stands at 23.56, ranking them 10th highest in the league. Additionally, they have achieved only three clean sheets in 16 matches, significantly fewer than Liverpool, who have recorded seven in 15 games. Of greater concern are the errors that have directly resulted in goals; Chelsea has committed five such errors to date, surpassing the other teams in the top four, which have two (Liverpool) and none (Arsenal and Nottingham Forest). The accompanying graph illustrates the historical performance of past Premier League champions, suggesting that Chelsea’s current record does not align with title-winning form. Every one of the last 10 league champions maintained a goals-conceded-per-game average below one; Manchester City in 2018-19 recorded the lowest at 0.61, while Leicester in 2015-16 had the highest at 0.95, with the overall average being 0.81. In contrast, Chelsea’s current figure for the ongoing season is 1.19 goals per game, whereas league leaders Liverpool stand at 0.87. Conversely, at the offensive end of the field, there is cause for optimism; Chelsea leads the league in scoring with 37 goals, and their goals-scored-per-game figure of 2.31 is highly indicative of a title-winning side. How concerned are Chelsea supporters about the team’s defense? Is it possible for them to secure the title with their current goalkeeper and defensive unit?