West Country prepares for renewed wet and windy conditions

The West Country is anticipating a further period of highly unstable weather, as the Met Office has cautioned about the potential for significant rainfall and powerful winds to emerge from Friday into Saturday. Low-pressure systems are expected to approach from the Atlantic, introducing a succession of wet and blustery conditions, initially on Thursday and subsequently from late Friday into Saturday. The weather system forecast for Friday carries a higher likelihood of causing disruptive weather across southern England. Nevertheless, the precise development and subsequent trajectory of the storm remain somewhat unclear. Even minor variations in these elements will significantly impact the specific locations where winds will be strongest and rainfall most intense. Despite this, the level of forecast confidence was deemed sufficient for the UK Met Office to issue a yellow severe weather warning earlier on Wednesday. This warning is currently effective from 15:00 GMT on Friday until 06:00 on Sunday. Presently, the warning encompasses all of England and Wales, though additional revisions may be necessary as more detailed forecast information becomes available. Should the anticipated impacts justify an upgrade to an amber warning, the Met Office might opt to assign a name to the storm, which would then be the fourth named storm of this season. The existing warning indicates that inland areas could widely experience wind gusts ranging from 40mph to 50mph, with isolated instances potentially reaching 60mph. Coastal regions exposed to the elements might encounter gusts of 70mph or greater. Certain forecast computer models project a band of powerful winds spreading eastward across our region, particularly from Friday evening and continuing into the night. This aspect warrants specific attention, as Storm Bert (23-24 November) may have already weakened or damaged some trees, rendering them especially susceptible to subsequent strong winds. Nevertheless, the storm’s precise ultimate path could potentially prevent the West Country from experiencing the most severe winds. However, the prevailing advice for now is to ‘be prepared’. Similarly, the distribution of the most intense rainfall from this system is subject to some unpredictability. Nonetheless, a widespread accumulation of between 15 to 25mm (one inch) of rain is possible, with certain localities potentially receiving substantially higher amounts. This period of heavy rain in early December follows an autumn that was exceptionally wet for various parts of our region. For Gloucestershire, specifically, the Met Office reports it was the county’s wettest on record, based on a data set extending back to 1836. According to the meteorological calendar, which segments each year into distinct seasonal ‘slices’ for climate statistical purposes, winter in the northern hemisphere commences on the first of December and concludes on the last day of February. The impending wet and windy conditions could establish a pattern for subsequent phases of the current winter. Seasonal forecasters anticipate an overall wetter-than-average season, with an elevated probability of windy or even stormy conditions at various times, particularly during January and February. However, these types of forecasts are limited to outlining general trends and probable anomalies (departures from climate averages). They are unable to predict the precise weather conditions expected on any specific future dates of the winter – notwithstanding occasional media reports asserting the contrary! It is advisable to monitor Met Office warnings, as updates to those currently issued for Friday and the weekend are always a possibility. For further information, follow BBC Gloucestershire on Facebook, X, and Instagram. Story ideas can be submitted via email or WhatsApp at 0800 313 4630. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our approach to external linking is available.