Welsh Tory Leader Andrew RT Davies Faces Confidence Vote

Andrew RT Davies is scheduled to undergo a vote of confidence regarding his leadership on Tuesday, initiated by members of his Conservative group within the Senedd. This development follows both private and public dissatisfaction concerning some of his social media activity, alongside uncertainties regarding the party’s strategic direction. Furthermore, recent polling data for the 2026 Senedd election presents a challenging outlook for the Conservatives. Current indications suggest the vote is expected to be closely contested, described by some sources as “tight” and “50-50”. Neither faction seems assured of securing a majority. Should Davies prevail, there remains a possibility that he or his colleagues might perceive his leadership position as unsustainable. A scenario could arise where some MSs resign from his shadow cabinet following a narrow victory for Davies. This echoes the situation earlier this year that ultimately led to the downfall of former First Minister Vaughan Gething, when multiple cabinet members resigned. Questions also arise as to whether Davies might step down if he recognizes a complete division within his group, or if he might win and remain in post, yet face a significant challenge in persuading his colleagues of his suitability as their leader. The situation is characterized by considerable uncertainty and tension, as the leadership’s future and the party’s strategic path are in question. This is compounded by the growing imperative to confront unfavorable polling results in anticipation of the 2026 Senedd election. A recent ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll, released over the weekend, indicated that the Tories were positioned in fourth place with 19% support, trailing Labour and Reform at 23%, and Plaid Cymru at 24%. Few Conservative MSs have publicly disclosed their stance on the confidence vote, with a significant number choosing to refrain from comment. This silence can be interpreted in various ways when they are questioned about their support for the leader. Other individuals have expressed a preference to avoid public discussion, while some have openly endorsed Andrew RT Davies. Gareth Davies, the MS for Vale of Clwyd, stated on X two days prior that “as current things stand Andrew RT Davies has still my support in being leader.” Additionally, there are reports of negative briefings targeting certain MSs who are thought to be advocating for a change in leadership. An unnamed Welsh Conservative source specifically mentioned Shadow Economy Minister Samuel Kurtz, remarking: “Is anyone surprised?“Kurtz is openly in favour of expanding the Senedd and he’s totally opposed to RT’s strategy of taking on Reform. This is set to be the night of the wet knives.” Samuel Kurtz, who also serves as the group’s chair, has been approached for comment. Certain grassroots Welsh Conservatives have also expressed support for Davies via social media, indicating that he enjoys backing from the broader party membership across Wales. Should Davies depart, his replacement would represent a significant void. Welsh Conservative MSs would be required to either unite behind a single alternative candidate, or, if multiple contenders emerge, two names would ultimately be presented to the wider membership, culminating in a campaign and a subsequent vote. Under such circumstances, an interim leader would be necessary. Approximately a year ago, the announcement of Mark Drakeford’s intention to step down as First Minister and a highly anticipated Welsh government budget were only weeks away. The current situation suggests a recurrence of political intensity. The year 2024 has been far from tranquil in Welsh politics, and the events of tomorrow are yet to unfold. The Barn Cymru ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll surveyed 1,121 adults during the period of November 25-29. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.