Vladimir Putin’s Next Actions: An Assessment Following Recent Escalations

The question, “What will Vladimir Putin do next?” has been frequently raised this week, which is understandable. This week, the Kremlin leader reduced the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Additionally, this week saw the US and UK cross another of Putin’s red lines by authorizing Ukraine to launch Western-supplied longer-range missiles into Russian territory. Furthermore, President Putin effectively issued a threat to the UK, America, and any other nation providing Ukraine with such weaponry for that specific purpose. “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” the Russian leader stated during a Thursday evening address to the nation. Consequently, “What will Vladimir Putin do next?” stands as a highly pressing question. As the BBC’s Russia Editor, one might anticipate an answer from me. To be frank, I do not possess that answer. It is possible that even Putin himself does not know the answer, which intensifies the gravity of the situation. Rather than providing definitive answers, here are some observations. This week, the Kremlin accused the “collective West” of escalating the conflict in Ukraine. However, nearly three years of conflict in Ukraine have demonstrated that Vladimir Putin consistently employs escalation as a method to achieve his objectives, which include control over Ukraine or, at a minimum, peace on Russia’s conditions. Instances of escalation in this conflict include Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his declaration of four Ukrainian territories as part of Russia, his deployment of North Korean troops to the Kursk region, his decision on Thursday to target the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, and subsequent threats to strike the West. I previously characterized Vladimir Putin as a vehicle lacking a reverse gear and brakes, speeding uncontrollably down a highway with the accelerator pedal fully depressed. From my perspective, the situation remains largely unchanged. One should not anticipate the “Putinmobile” to suddenly slow down or de-escalate now, despite longer-range missile strikes on Russia. Escalation, however, presents a different scenario and remains a distinct possibility. Ukraine is preparing for additional Russian attacks, potentially involving even heavier bombardments. Western governments will be evaluating the threat level in response to Putin’s warnings. Even prior to the Kremlin leader’s television address, concerns had emerged in the West regarding a potential increase in hybrid Russian warfare. Last month, the head of MI5 cautioned that Russian military intelligence was involved in a campaign to “generate mayhem on British and European streets.” “We’ve seen arson, sabotage and more,” he further stated. In June, Putin had previously indicated that Moscow might arm adversaries of the West if Ukraine were permitted to strike deep into Russia using Western long-range missiles. “We believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us,” he said, “why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?” Putin warns West as Russia hits Ukraine with new missile. The question “What will Putin do next?” is frequently succeeded by the query: “Would Putin use a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine war?” The Russian president has provided several clear indications. Upon announcing the commencement of his “special military operation”—the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—he issued a warning to “those who may be tempted to interfere from the outside.” “No matter who tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and our people,” the Kremlin leader declared, “they must know that Russia will respond immediately. “And the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” Western leaders largely dismissed these statements as nuclear saber-rattling. Since the war’s outset, Western governments have crossed multiple Russian “red lines,” including providing Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems, and subsequently F-16 fighter jets. The “consequences” threatened by the Kremlin did not materialize. In September, Putin announced a reduction in the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, with the corresponding decree published this week. This served as a clear warning to Europe and America against permitting longer-range missile strikes on Russian territory. This particular red line has now also been crossed. In his address to the nation, Putin confirmed Western reports indicating that Ukraine had launched US-supplied Atacms and British-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets within Russia. Earlier this week, when the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets inquired of a retired lieutenant-general about Russia’s appropriate response to an Atacms attack on the Bryansk region, he stated: “Starting World War Three over strikes on an arms depot in Bryansk region would probably be short-sighted.” It would be reassuring to believe that the Kremlin shares this perspective. However, Vladimir Putin’s address to the nation offered no evidence to support that notion. His message to Ukraine’s Western supporters seemed to convey: this is a red line I am serious about, and I challenge you to cross it. “Even Putin doesn’t know whether he can use a nuclear weapon, or he can’t. It depends on his emotions,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov recently informed me. “We know he’s a very emotional man. The decision to begin this war was also an emotional step. Because of that we must take seriously his idea of the changing of the nuclear doctrine. They say the fear of war must return and will contain both sides, but this is also a tool of escalation. “In this interpretation we must admit that Putin, under some circumstances, can use at least a tactical nuclear weapon in the framework of a limited nuclear war. It will not solve the problem. But it will be the start of a suicidal escalation for the whole world.” Tactical nuclear weapons are defined as small warheads designed for battlefield use or a limited strike. Vladimir Putin may be influenced by emotions. He is also evidently motivated by resentment toward the West and seems resolute in not retreating. However, he is also aware that the global landscape could soon undergo significant changes. In two months, Joe Biden will conclude his term, and Donald Trump will assume office in the White House. President-Elect Trump has voiced skepticism concerning US military assistance for Ukraine and has been strongly critical of Nato. He also recently stated that engaging in discussions with Vladimir Putin would be “a smart thing.” All of these factors are likely favorable to Putin. This suggests that, notwithstanding the recent threats and warnings, the Kremlin might opt against a significant escalation at this moment. This scenario is contingent on the Kremlin’s calculation that Donald Trump will facilitate an end to the war on terms advantageous to Russia. Should that calculation change, Moscow’s response could also change.