US Election’s Influence Felt by Ukraine’s Frontline Troops

Inna, clearing shattered glass from her storefront, understands that the destiny of her nation rests with American voters situated over 5,000 miles distant. She states, “We hope that the woman, Kamala Harris, will win and support us.” A Russian bomb had previously broken her shop’s windows, an incident frequently observed in Zaporizhzhia. A 10-metre (32ft) wide crater marks the center of the street. She further remarks, “Of course we are worried about the outcome [of the election],” adding, “We want to defeat the enemy!” Achieving this objective, even with a slim possibility, necessitates assistance from the United States for Ukraine. In 2023, Ukraine initiated a counteroffensive in this south-eastern sector of the front line, with the aim of expelling Russian forces. However, due to minimal advancement, Ukraine’s primary goal has shifted to mere endurance. Towns and cities endure daily impacts from missiles and glide bombs, while its military personnel withstand continuous Russian assaults. Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris has indicated that military assistance would persist should she secure victory; however, her authority might be limited by a Republican-controlled Congress. Furthermore, the flow of military backing, which has exceeded $50bn to date, appears less probable to be maintained if Donald Trump serves a second term. The individual who assumes the role of the next US president will significantly influence Ukraine’s boundaries and all its inhabitants. Should, for instance, they compel Ukraine to cede territory and stabilize the front lines, areas such as Zaporizhzhia might abruptly face division, akin to North and South Korea following the 1950s ceasefire that ceased hostilities but never formally concluded the conflict. Trump has stated his intention to “work out something” to resolve the conflict and implied that Ukraine might need to relinquish some land. A secondary US alternative involves withdrawing its full support, which would imply that, over time, Russian forces could ultimately overtake the entire region and additional parts of Ukraine. The third possibility, Ukraine achieving full liberation of its occupied territories, appears progressively improbable. This absence of advancement on the battlefield has led to a growing discussion across the Atlantic regarding the merits of aiding Ukrainian soldiers such as Andriy. He commands his unit’s array of US-manufactured armored vehicles at the front. When not transporting personnel, these vehicles are positioned beneath camouflage netting along tree lines. He clarifies, “If aid stops or slows, the burden will fall on the shoulders of the infantry.” He continues, “We’ll fight with what we have, but everyone knows Ukraine can’t do it on its own.” Andriy and his Ukrainian comrades are anxiously anticipating the US election scheduled for 5 November. This state of unpredictability is hindering military aspirations and impeding political endeavors to obtain further assistance. Western partners frequently observe America’s precedent when determining the manner or extent of their support for Kyiv’s military campaign. Andriy states, “When we hear how one candidate, who is less willing to help us, is leading in the polls, it’s upsetting and frustrating.” He adds, “But we’re not going anywhere.” Within the autumnal agricultural landscape, the soldiers are eager to showcase the American equipment they utilize, including drones, grenade launchers, and mounted machine guns. They assert that all these items are significantly better than their Soviet-era counterparts. President Zelensky is also endeavoring to present his nation as an an investment prospect to its allies, whether through Ukraine’s natural resources or commercial enterprises. Drone operator Serhiy details their process for providing direct feedback to Western manufacturers. He remarks with a smile, “We have an online chat with them, and we make suggestions.” He concludes, “Improvements are already happening.” As evidenced by drone production, the conflict in Ukraine is compelling domestic innovations. It also provides an opportunity for Western corporations to test their merchandise in an active combat zone. Western aid, amounting to billions of dollars, has additionally spurred reforms in certain governmental sectors. Kyiv aims to demonstrate its value as a reliable investment. The query remains whether these developments will be overshadowed by a conflict that is progressively favoring Russia. Recognizing that a military’s strength often mirrors its society’s resilience, we proceeded to encounter an individual who personally endured Russian cruelty. Lyubov’s daughter and grandchildren sought refuge in the US when the full-scale invasion commenced. Our previous meeting occurred two years prior in her front-line village of Komyshuvakha, following the destruction of her residence by invading forces. On this occasion, she appeared more content, despite her prolonged proximity to the conflict. Within the comfortable setting of her new apartment, I inquired if Ukraine ought to negotiate a conclusion to the war. She responded, “What about those who gave their lives?” She continued, “I see the end of the war only when we reach the 1991 borders of our country, when Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk were ours.” Ukrainian news broadcasts feature nearly incessant reporting on the US election, including war forecasts predicated on the prospective victor. Kamala Harris is unequivocally regarded as Ukraine’s favored candidate, and reporters are working to counter Russian disinformation targeting her. Nevertheless, throughout Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions, an increasing populace desires an immediate cessation of the conflict, viewing a Donald Trump presidency as the most promising opportunity for relief. We conversed with numerous individuals in the vicinity of the contested eastern town of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are steadily advancing. A sentiment prevails here that Ukraine should have engaged in negotiations at the outset of the full-scale invasion, thereby averting the subsequent loss of life and devastation. Both parties participated in discussions during the initial months of 2022. However, revelations of alleged Russian war crimes ceased diplomatic efforts and reinforced Ukraine’s determination to continue fighting. As one woman articulated, “Death is not worth territory.” She added, “We have to stop this war, and Trump is the person who knows how to do that.” For some, eleven years of Russian aggression is sufficient. Among Ukraine’s parliamentary politicians, this sentiment is not openly expressed. Although cross-party consensus to continue the fight persists, President Zelensky’s “victory plan” has drawn criticism for lacking a more defined timeline. Regarding Lyubov, she refrained from stating her preference for the White House victor: “I would like a true friend of Ukraine to win, who will continue to support us. But who it is going to be, I cannot tell you.” While I commend Lyubov’s inner fortitude, she embodies a progressively common and uneasy paradox: a yearning for Russia’s defeat coupled with a wish for the conflict to cease promptly. The oscillation between US interventionist and isolationist policies is keenly observed and experienced in Ukraine. Since its decisive vote for independence in 1991, amidst the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been compelled to contend for its sovereignty. The nation has positioned itself at the boundary of a geopolitical fault line, striving to align with Western nations while Russia exerts opposing influence. Moscow’s comprehensive invasion signifies that Ukraine requires America’s assistance to prevent its fragmentation. Further reporting contributed by Hanna Chornous, Sara Monetta and Hanna Tsyba. From the present until the US election on 5 November, BBC correspondents globally are investigating the potential repercussions of its result in their respective locations, and how individuals worldwide perceive this presidential contest. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the material on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.