US Election Night: What to Expect and Key Timings

Following an exceptionally dramatic campaign, US election day has arrived. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has been extremely tight, and further developments are anticipated once polling stations close on 5 November. This guide for election night outlines essential aspects to monitor while awaiting the outcome, regardless of how long that process takes. All timings provided are first in GMT, followed by US Eastern time (EST). After months of speculation regarding the American electorate’s decision, an initial indication of their perspectives and motivations emerged at 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT). Early exit poll information indicated that democracy and the economy represent the most significant concerns for voters. US exit polls operate differently from those in the UK; instead of forecasting the final result, they offer understanding into public priorities and viewpoints, and subsequently, how various demographic segments cast their ballots. Surveyors integrate election day interviews with telephone surveys conducted nationwide and within the seven swing states. Throughout the evening, analysts are expected to frequently discuss these states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While the presidential vote’s outcome is largely predetermined in most states, voting in swing states is challenging to forecast and can favor either Republicans (red) or Democrats (blue). Both campaigns have intensively focused on voters in these crucial regions, which could determine control of the White House. By 00:00 GMT (19:00 EST), polling stations will conclude operations in Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia; however, these are not considered swing states, meaning their results are anticipated to be predictable. Nevertheless, voting will also conclude in Georgia, the initial swing state of the night. A win for either contender there could provide a significant indication of the election’s potential direction. In the previous election, Joe Biden secured a narrow victory in Georgia. The state also became central to “false claims” made by Trump, who faces accusations of “criminally conspiring to overturn his 2020 defeat.” The candidate who receives the most votes in Georgia will be awarded 16 vital votes from a total of 538 within the electoral college framework. Both Harris and Trump aim to secure a majority of 270 electoral college votes to claim the White House. This threshold holds greater significance than the “popular vote” or their overall national support. Shortly thereafter, at 00:30 GMT (19:30 EST), polls will close in three additional states, including North Carolina. Beyond the presidential race, considerable attention is focused on the state governor’s contest, which features state Attorney General Josh Stein competing against Trump-endorsed candidate Mark Robinson, whose campaign has encountered “scandals.” Polling stations also close simultaneously in Ohio, the state where Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, serves as a senator. Concurrently, both campaigns will convene at their respective headquarters for the night; Trump’s location is confirmed to be in West Palm Beach, Florida. Harris is anticipated to spend part of the evening at Howard University in Washington DC, her former educational institution. At this juncture, certain states may begin to be “called” by US media organizations. These outlets employ analytical models to project, or “call,” the voting outcome of a state, even prior to the completion of the entire vote tabulation. This occurs when media outlets determine that a candidate has established an insurmountable lead over their challenger. In several tightly contested swing states, this process could extend for a considerable duration. The models utilized by media organizations incorporate diverse data sources, including exit polls and official vote counts. The BBC obtains this information from Edison Research, a specialized firm. At 01:00 GMT (20:00 EST), additional polling places will close, notably in crucial Pennsylvania, which represents the largest prize among the 2024 swing states, offering 19 electoral votes. This is the state where Trump survived an assassination attempt when “a gunman opened fire at his rally, killing one person.” Pennsylvania is also situated within the Rust Belt, a region formerly characterized by manufacturing that has undergone industrial decline in recent decades. In this state, a few counties, such as Erie and Northampton, possess the potential to influence the outcome. Approximately at this time, 01:30 GMT (20:30 EST), further exit poll data is anticipated, encompassing a national analysis of voting patterns by age, race, and educational attainment. This initial data is provisional and undergoes refinement over several weeks. Polling stations will close at 02:00 GMT (21:00 EST) in additional closely observed battleground states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Michigan contains the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the US, and for many of them, the Israel-Gaza war constitutes a significant electoral concern. Biden secured victory in Michigan in the previous election, as he did in Wisconsin, which served as the venue for this year’s Republican National Convention. Polling also concludes in Arizona, a central point in the national immigration discussion, followed an hour later by Nevada, where both political parties have sought to attract working-class voters by pledging to eliminate taxes on tips. By 04:00 GMT (23:00 EST), polls will have closed throughout the remaining contiguous states on the US mainland. The final two states will close a little later: Hawaii at 05:00 GMT (00:00 EST) and Alaska at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday (01:00 EST). Historically, the overall race was typically projected for one candidate or the other shortly after polls closed at 23:00 EST in California. A concession speech from the unsuccessful candidate usually ensued not long afterward. However, few analysts anticipate a swift conclusion this year, with some indicating that determining the winner could require days instead of hours. In recent electoral cycles, a rise in postal votes has generally prolonged the process. Additionally, tens of millions of individuals cast their ballots early, prior to election day. Furthermore, states operate under varying regulations concerning when they commence tabulation. Initial vote counts can also be misleading. A candidate establishing an early advantage via in-person votes might ultimately be surpassed once postal votes and other ballot types are incorporated later. This scenario occurred in Michigan in 2020, where Trump initially led with in-person votes but was subsequently overtaken by Biden. Despite the significant attention on the presidency, citizens will also elect new members of Congress, responsible for enacting legislation and proposing spending initiatives. All 435 positions in the House of Representatives are subject to election. In the Senate, where members approve crucial government appointments, 34 seats are being contested. Presently, Republicans hold control of the House, whereas Democrats maintain control of the Senate. These two legislative bodies can serve as a counterbalance to White House proposals if the majority party in either chamber opposes the president. Additionally, voters in Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota will be consulted on how their respective states should regulate abortion, an issue that has emerged as one of the most emotionally charged topics of this election. For those still following, it is commendable to have reached this point, though it is possible that a longer wait will be necessary to ascertain the victor. A closer contest necessitates more extensive vote tabulation before a winner can be declared in any specific location, and the potential for recounts always exists. A complete national count typically spans days or weeks. For instance, in 2020, the outcomes in Pennsylvania and Nevada were projected four days after election day, and in Arizona, over a week later by most media sources. An extremely close competition might resemble the 2020 election. Alternatively, the 2024 election could be likened to the 2000 presidential contest between George W Bush and Al Gore, which was challenged and ultimately resolved by the US Supreme Court, with Bush confirmed as the victor. The closely contested vote anticipated by surveys and commentators for 2024 could potentially facilitate legal challenges from either campaign. Such a scenario would signify that the night merely marks the commencement of the unfolding drama, rather than providing a definitive conclusion to the 2024 election. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher analyzes the White House race in his bi-weekly “US Election Unspun” newsletter. Readers in the UK can subscribe “here.” Individuals outside the UK can subscribe “here.” Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content of external websites. Information regarding our approach to external linking is available for reading.