Ukraine Faces Dual Challenges: Russian Military Progress and Incoming Trump Administration

The Russian military’s gradual progression in eastern Ukraine is causing widespread human suffering. With the change of administration in Washington two months away, Ukraine is grappling with a dual predicament: how to halt the advance and how to ready itself for Donald Trump’s presidency. In Pavlohrad, approximately 60 miles (100km) west of the evolving front line, a shelter is continuously receiving evacuees from communities and urban areas affected by the conflict. Among them is Anastasiia Bolvihina, 31, accompanied by her two sons, Arseniy and Rostyslav. Their family cat rests amidst the limited possessions they managed to retrieve from Uspenivka, a village situated near the embattled city of Pokrovsk. The family remained in their home for as long as possible. However, due to continuous explosions, shuttered shops, and progressively blocked roads, they ultimately accepted their situation. They gathered some bags, secured their door, and departed. Anastasiia stated, “We hoped the war would pass us and end soon.” Having spent two months without electricity or internet access, she is now using her laptop on the bed to catch up on current events. When questioned about the distant political shifts in the US, she responded, “We hope things will be better and the war will end.” She added, “I hope the new president will be better than the current one.” Next door, in an auditorium that is dimly lit and heated by one bar heater, volunteers are assisting elderly evacuees. The scene depicts profound distress, with motionless, fatigued individuals either seated or reclined on camp beds, some appearing to be deep in contemplation. Kateryna Klymko, 83, from Sukhi Yaly near Kurakhove—another town gradually being occupied by Russian forces—has recently arrived. She briefly wept while recounting the destruction of her home and all her belongings by fire. Referring to the advancing Russian army, she remarked, “They bombed so much. It’s like the last judgement!” When asked if Ukraine could still achieve victory, she sighed, “God only knows. My heart aches from what I hear. We were bombed so much and so many people died there.” Additionally, Russia conducted a massive ballistic missile attack on Dnipro during the night. The impact was felt throughout the city, prompting all residents, including the BBC team, to seek refuge in bomb shelters. The Biden administration’s recent policy choices regarding Atacms and land mines are evidently aimed at assisting Ukraine in retaining control over its own territory and areas within Russia’s Kursk region. These elements might become part of negotiations next year, should Donald Trump choose that course of action. To date, the US president-elect has offered minimal indications of his strategy for resolving the conflict, apart from a characteristic boast to conclude the war within 24 hours. Ukrainian political figures, including President Zelensky, appear inclined to extend the benefit of the doubt to Trump. Former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba commented, “I think he has taken a very smart approach,” adding, “by clearly setting out the goal – ‘I’m going to fix it’ – but without getting into details.” Notwithstanding Trump’s public image as a zero-sum negotiator who expresses a peculiar admiration for Vladimir Putin, Dmytro Kuleba suggests that individuals often oversimplify him. Kuleba stated, “He can hold a bigger picture in his head, and I’m sure it will not be simply transactional.” As the incoming administration takes shape and attention shifts to fulfilling Trump’s objectives, the former foreign minister anticipates that a singular dominant factor will guide policy. He remarked, “President Trump will undoubtedly be driven by one goal, to project his strength, his leadership,” and “And show that he is capable of fixing problems which his predecessor failed to fix.” Kuleba posits that demonstrating strength will involve exerting pressure on both parties. He asserts that abandoning Ukraine is not a viable choice. Kuleba explained, “As much as the fall of Afghanistan inflicted a severe wound on the foreign policy reputation of the Biden administration, if the scenario you mentioned is to be entertained by President Trump, Ukraine will become his Afghanistan, with equal consequences.” He concluded, “And I don’t think this is what he’s looking for.” The previous weekend, President Zelensky indicated that Kyiv aims to conclude the war via “diplomatic means” in 2025. He also stated that the conflict would cease “sooner” if Trump were in the White House. This statement was characteristic of Zelensky, combining elements of praise and provocation. For numerous individuals who have borne the brunt of Russia’s invasion, peace is urgently desired, even if it necessitates additional sacrifices. In Dnipro, one of the nation’s numerous prosthetic centers sees a continuous flow of wounded soldiers. Demian Dudlya, 27, lost a leg during a missile attack on his unit 18 months prior. He has adapted to his carbon fiber prosthesis and is preparing for the upcoming Invictus Games. However, his outlook on the war is less hopeful. He stated, “I think most likely two regions [Donetsk and Luhansk] will be taken from us, and Crimea.” He added, “I am not confident we will push them back from those regions. We have neither people nor weapons.” Public opinion surveys present varied results but indicate an increasing desire among Ukrainians for the war to conclude promptly, particularly in the east where air raid sirens frequently sound daily. A rising segment of the population expresses readiness to cede territory in exchange for peace. When questioned about his expectations for Donald Trump’s presidency, 28-year-old Andrii Petrenko, who is currently receiving his first prosthetic limb after losing a leg three months ago, remarked, “I think that the end of the war will happen.” He elaborated, “Either they will agree and go to the 1991 borders, or the territories will be surrendered. The main thing is that the war ends and people stop dying.” Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding their approach to external linking is available.