Syria’s Leadership Transition: Recent Developments and International Reactions

The Assad family’s more than five-decade rule over Syria, characterized by firm control, has concluded. Bashar al-Assad assumed the presidency in 2000 following the passing of his father, Hafez, who had governed for nearly three decades. In 2011, his response to a peaceful, pro-democracy movement involved severe repression, initiating a destructive civil war that has resulted in over half a million fatalities and the displacement of 12 million individuals from their residences. An extensive offensive commenced thirteen days prior in north-western Syria, spearheaded by the Islamist militant organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) alongside associated rebel groups. These rebel forces rapidly seized Aleppo, the nation’s second-largest city, before advancing southward along the main road towards the capital, Damascus, amidst the collapse of the military. Russia declared on Sunday that Assad had resigned and departed Syria, mere hours after rebel entry into Damascus and public celebrations in the streets. Subsequently, it was revealed that Assad had traveled to Moscow and received asylum. Concurrently, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani reached Damascus, stating to Syrians: “The future is ours.” Over the preceding four years, the civil war had appeared to be largely concluded. Assad’s administration had re-established authority over the majority of Syrian cities, aided by Russia, Iran, and Iranian-supported militias such as Hezbollah, leading to largely static front lines. Nevertheless, significant portions of the country remained outside governmental oversight. The final rebel stronghold was situated in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, adjacent to Turkey, housing over four million residents, many of whom were displaced. This area was primarily controlled by HTS, though several allied rebel and jihadist groups also maintained a presence. Additionally, Turkish-backed rebel factions held territory with assistance from Turkish forces. HTS and its allies initiated their unexpected offensive on 27 November. Within three days, they secured control over most of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest urban center. They reported encountering minimal ground resistance following the swift withdrawal of government troops and security personnel. Concurrently, Turkish-supported rebel factions leveraged the government’s withdrawal by commencing a distinct offensive in areas north of Aleppo. These territories were under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia alliance backed by the United States. Assad pledged to “crush” the rebels with the assistance of his allies. Russian warplanes escalated attacks on rebel-controlled zones, and Iran-backed militias dispatched additional forces to support the military near Hama, the subsequent city southward en route to Damascus. However, Hama was captured by rebel forces on Thursday, following multiple days of intense combat that ultimately led to the military’s retreat. Rebels announced their subsequent objective was to seize Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, a goal they accomplished on Saturday night after merely one day of engagement. Simultaneously, other rebel groups arrived in the outskirts of Damascus. In the early hours of Sunday, HTS-led rebels declared their entry into Damascus and the release of prisoners from Saydnaya, the nation’s most infamous military detention facility. Under two hours thereafter, they proclaimed: “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.” The rebels further committed to constructing a “homeland for all, including all sects and social classes.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring organization based in the UK, reported a minimum of 910 fatalities, comprising 138 civilians, since the commencement of the rebel offensive. The Islamist militant group spearheading the offensive against Assad was established in 2012 under the name al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front, which swore allegiance to al-Qaeda in the subsequent year, was considered among the most potent and lethal factions opposing President Assad. However, its jihadist ideology generated apprehension, and it was perceived as conflicting with the predominantly secular primary rebel coalition, the Free Syrian Army. In 2016, Al-Nusra severed its connections with al-Qaeda and adopted the designation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham upon merging with other groups a year subsequent. Nevertheless, the UN, US, UK, and several other nations persist in classifying HTS as an al-Qaeda affiliate, often referring to it as al-Nusra Front. The US designated Abu Mohammed al-Jolani as a specially designated global terrorist and put forth a $10m reward for intelligence leading to his apprehension. HTS solidified its authority in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by defeating adversaries, including cells of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) group. It established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to govern the region in accordance with Islamic law. For multiple years, Idlib persisted as a conflict zone as Syrian government forces endeavored to reclaim control. Yet, in 2020, Turkey and Russia mediated a ceasefire to stop a government offensive aimed at retaking Idlib. The ceasefire mostly endured, notwithstanding intermittent clashes. HTS and its allies stated on 27 November that their offensive was initiated to “deter aggression,” alleging that the government and associated Iran-backed militias had intensified attacks on civilians. This occurred, however, at a juncture when the government was debilitated by protracted warfare, sanctions, and corruption, with its allies Russia and Iran engaged in other conflicts. The Iran-supported group Hezbollah had recently sustained losses due to Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Israeli attacks had neutralized Iranian military commanders within Syria, and Russia’s attention was diverted by the conflict in Ukraine. Lacking their support, Assad’s forces were left vulnerable. On Monday, outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalili stated that the majority of his former cabinet members were cooperating with the rebels “so that the transitional period is quick and smooth.” In a concise statement, the rebels indicated that their forces were nearing full control of Damascus and were safeguarding public assets. They also declared that Syria’s new government would commence operations immediately upon its formation. The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, representing groups formerly in opposition, affirmed on Sunday its dedication to “completing the transfer of power to a transitional governing body with full executive powers, paving the way for a free, democratic and pluralistic Syria.” The declaration did not reference HTS, but its vice-president, Dima Moussa, informed the BBC that the “transition requires coming together of all Syrian people, including those who are carrying arms.” Concurrently, hostilities persisted in other regions of Syria. HTS and its allied groups reported their forces were progressing in the western rural areas of Deir al-Zour, the largest city in eastern Syria. Turkish-supported rebel factions, operating under the Syrian National Army banner, were also moving north-west of Aleppo into areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Israel verified that it was targeting suspected government chemical weapon and missile locations in Syria, stating this action aimed to prevent them from falling into extremist hands. It also declared its intention to maintain a “limited” troop presence in a former demilitarized buffer zone within the Golan Heights, citing the abandonment of posts by Syrian troops. Former Assad loyalists seemingly retained control of the Mediterranean coast and mountainous areas in the country’s west. This region serves as a stronghold for Assad’s minority Alawite sect and hosts two vital Russian military installations: Hmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartous. Russian media outlets reported that Bashar al-Assad and his family received asylum. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia was as “surprised” as others by the developments and that Syria was “going through a very difficult period now, due to instability.” Iran conveyed a desire for “the swift end of military conflicts, the prevention of terrorist actions, and the commencement of national dialogue” involving all segments of Syrian society. Turkey commented that Syria had reached a point “where the Syrian people will shape the future of their own country.” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan asserted that the new government “must be established in an orderly manner” and cautioned that “the principle of inclusiveness must never be compromised.” US President Joe Biden characterized the downfall of the Assad government as a “fundamental act of justice” following decades of oppression, yet he warned that the assumption of power by Islamist rebels introduced a period of “risk and uncertainty.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the collapse of the Assad government was the “direct result” of his nation’s operations against Hezbollah and Iran. Iraq, a nation where potent Iran-backed militias deployed combatants to aid the Syrian military during the civil war, expressed support for initiatives to initiate dialogue in Syria “leading to the adoption of a pluralistic constitution that preserves the human and civil rights of Syrians.” Jordan’s King Abdullah, whose country had supported rebel factions early in the conflict, affirmed Jordan’s respect for the Syrian people’s will and decisions. He emphasized the necessity of preventing “any conflict that could lead to chaos.” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, described Assad’s ouster as “a positive and long-awaited development,” adding that the bloc’s primary concern was regional security. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.