Syria’s Evolving Future: HTS Leader Among Multiple Key Actors

An unnamed source characterized the sentiment of Arab foreign ministers arriving in Doha on Saturday evening for critical discussions to prevent a descent into disorder and violence in Damascus, stating, “They arrived here worried about the Islamists.” Within hours of their arrival, the influential Islamist faction leading the rebel advance announced its entry into the core of the Syrian capital. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir-al Shams, declared “the capture of Damascus” with triumph. He is now using his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, instead of his alias, signifying his rapid ascent to a more prominent national position. He is expected to be a crucial figure in shaping Syria’s new governance following the abrupt and remarkable conclusion of the Assad family’s fifty-year authoritarian rule. However, the head of this organization, which is banned by both the UN and Western governments, is not the sole key actor in Syria’s rapidly evolving situation. Marie Forestier, a senior Syria advisor for the European Institute of Peace, warned, “The story is not written yet.” She, along with other knowledgeable observers present at the annual Doha Forum, highlighted that the capital was entered by a different rebel faction, recently identified as the Southern Operations room, which collaborated with city residents. This force primarily consists of combatants from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), who had close ties with Western powers during the initial phase of Syria’s 2011 uprising. Ms Forestier characterized the beginning of this significant new phase, marked by widespread street celebrations but also important questions about future developments, by stating, “The game starts now.” The rapid and largely unopposed advance of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir-al Shams (HTS) prompted a swift movement by rebel forces across other Syrian regions and an increase in armed local groups eager to assert control in their respective territories. Thomas Juneau, a Middle East expert from the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, also present in Doha, commented, “Fighting the Assad regime was the glue that kept this de facto coalition together.” He added that “Now that Assad has fled, continued unity among the groups that toppled him will be a challenge.” Among these groups is the Syrian National Army, an umbrella alliance of Turkish-backed militias that, similar to HTS, controlled a segment of northwest Syria. In the northeast, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also made territorial advances and intend to maintain them. Nevertheless, the prominent and ambitious leader of HTS has become the focal point. His public statements and past actions are currently being examined by Syrians, neighboring governments, and the international community. The commander, whose militia initially formed as an Al-Qaeda affiliate, separated from the jihadist organization in 2016 and has since sought to improve his public image. For years, he has conveyed conciliatory messages internationally; he is now assuring Syria’s diverse minority communities that they face no threat. Ms Forestier stated, “There is a cautious welcome to his messages.” She added, “But we cannot forget the past eight years of his authoritarian rule and his background.” HTS, functioning as both a political and paramilitary entity, governed the conservative province of Idlib through an operational administration known as the Salvation Government, which permitted limited religious freedom but also implemented repressive policies. In Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and the initial urban area captured by HTS during its rapid offensive, its combatants have been endeavoring to demonstrate their capacity to govern. The group has also conveyed assurances to nations such as Iraq that the conflict will not extend beyond their frontiers. Other neighboring countries, including Jordan, are concerned that Islamist achievements nearby could invigorate disaffected militant factions within their own territories. Turkey, anticipated to be a crucial participant, harbors its own apprehensions. It considers the SDF a terrorist organization connected to Turkey’s outlawed PKK Kurdish group and is prepared to intervene militarily and politically, as it has for years, should its interests be jeopardized. On Saturday, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated at the Doha Forum that it was “inadmissible” for a group he identified as terrorists, clearly referring to HTS, to assume control in Syria. Later that evening, Geir Pederson, the UN’s Special Envoy for Syria, remarked that there was a “new understanding of a new reality.” Regional foreign ministers, including Iran and Russia, who were previously strong allies of President Assad and were caught off guard by these dramatic developments, continue to advocate for an inclusive political process. Mr Pedersen reiterated this call. Following his meetings in Doha, where numerous senior diplomats, scholars, and officials from around the globe were discussing the latest news from Syria, he stated, “This dark chapter has left deep scars, but today we look forward with cautious hope to the opening of a new one—one of peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syrians.” Numerous observers present appeared hesitant to quickly determine the nature of governance that will arise in a nation recognized for its diverse Christian and Muslim communities. When questioned about potential concerns regarding a strict Islamist-led system, one Western diplomat responded, “I don’t want to go down that line of thinking yet.” He added, “We’re just getting started with HTS, who have led a bloodless coup.” Juneau concurred, stating, “For now, it is good to simply appreciate the truly historical collapse of one of the most brutal regimes of the past decades.”