Syrian Refugees in Turkey Weigh Return Following Assad’s Fall

Syrian refugees in Turkish cities have celebrated the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, welcoming the sudden collapse of his administration, and many are now contemplating a potential return to their homeland. Thousands of Syrians have converged on Turkey’s borders with Syria, prompting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to announce the opening of a border crossing “to prevent any congestion and ease traffic.” However, nearly three million Syrians currently reside in Turkey, having sought refuge from their country’s civil war since its onset in 2011, and they now face a significant decision regarding their future actions. “There is still no water in many regions in Syria, electricity comes at certain times of the day. It is not even clear who will govern the country and how, but we need to return to get Syria back on its feet,” states Ibrahim, a chemical engineer who has resided for 12 years in Turkey’s Hatay province, which borders Syria. Despite the inherent risks, Ibrahim is among the Syrian refugees who intend to return as soon as feasible, even though it will necessitate rebuilding their lives from the ground up. Many Turkish citizens also desire the prompt return of Syrians, and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has affirmed that Turkey will facilitate their “safe and voluntary return home.” Columnist Mehmet Tezkan articulated a widespread sentiment by suggesting there was no justification for Syrians to remain. The living conditions for Syrians in Turkey have become increasingly challenging over the past two years, as Turkish citizens contend with an economic crisis marked by escalating inflation. Anti-immigrant sentiment within society has grown, and the Erdogan government has implemented stricter immigration policies. Turkey had previously engaged in discussions with the ousted Assad regime regarding the repatriation of its refugees. Nevertheless, most Syrians in Turkey are expected to observe how the upcoming tumultuous months unfold before making such a momentous decision. “There will be some movement, but I don’t expect millions of people to leave at once, as everyone thinks,” warns migration expert Prof Murat Erdogan. He adds that if this mass departure does not occur, “then a new atmosphere of tension may emerge.” Metin Corabatir, who heads the Asylum and Migration Research Centre, forecasts a “gradual return” occurring within a year at best, contingent upon the necessary preparations being made. “There are still risks in Syria in terms of both security and daily life. An internationally recognised government must take office in Damascus,” he informed the BBC. Ibrahim concurs that many refugees will find little to return to in their homes: “In some areas there are no houses, no schools left. Even big cities like Aleppo are in a bad situation.” He continues, “But this country has come out of a 13-year war and we cannot wait for everything to be ready for us. As the Syrian people, we will try to rebuild everything little by little.” Ibrahim further explains that the identity of Syria’s next government is less crucial than Syrians returning to shape their future. “Whoever comes will be better than Assad,” he asserts. “If we don’t return, who will go to the elections, who will decide how the country will be governed?” Metin Corabatir highlights that the initial significant influx into Turkey occurred as Syrians fled the Assad regime between 2011 and 2013. The subsequent exodus was driven by Syrians escaping the rise of the militant Islamist group IS and the spread of political instability. “It’s not easy to tell how the groups that come to power will behave, and Syrians will naturally expect to see that,” he states. He further questions, “What kind of regime will be created there? The team that came says ‘we are not jihadists, we will allow diversity’ – but only time will tell to understand whether this is real or not.” All Syrians residing in Turkey possess temporary protection status. The majority of them live in Istanbul and the two border cities of Gaziantep and Sanliurfa. Having been in Turkey for an extended period, many Syrian families have established roots, enrolling their children in Turkish schools and universities. Syrians in Turkey also experience precarious living conditions. Many work without registration, earning salaries below the minimum wage, and frequently lacking insurance. A simultaneous mass return of all Syrians could significantly impact the Turkish economy. Murat Erdogan cautions against Turkey pressuring Syrians to return home all at once, citing major concerns regarding infrastructure, specifically a shortage of schools, jobs, and hospitals. The United Nations estimates that 90% of the population within Syria currently lives below the poverty line. “It may take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild these devastated cities. Which country will provide the resources?” Mr Erdogan questions. “The deep poverty and the collapse of infrastructure in Syria are likely to continue for a long time. These are not problems that will be easily fixed in the short term.” Metin Corabatir also warns of the danger posed by unexploded bombs and mines when refugees return home: “They also need to find out in advance what condition their homes are in the destroyed cities.” He adds, “We are talking about millions of people. The fact that they left their homes, reached Syria and settled there; all of this is greatly underestimated.” Corabatir believes that Turks should not perceive the Syrians living among them as a monolithic group that will simply pack up and depart simultaneously.