Statistical Analysis: The Argument for an Aspinall vs. Jones Bout

Jon Jones holds the unique distinction in UFC history of defending his title across three distinct reigns. The UFC has not had an undisputed heavyweight champion for slightly over a year. After Tom Aspinall secured the interim title last November, current champion Jon Jones successfully defended his belt decisively at UFC 309, concluding his rivalry with American counterpart Stipe Miocic. Jones, aged 37, has largely expressed disinterest in an immediate fight with Aspinall, instead indicating a preference for a match against Alex Pereira. However, he has also mentioned a willingness to “negotiate” terms for a fight against the British fighter. UFC president Dana White has stated that a title unification bout between Aspinall and Jones would represent the “biggest heavyweight fight in UFC history”. Aspinall, 31, is considered the frontrunner to face Jones. BBC Sport has examined the statistics, presenting the argument for Aspinall (15-3) to challenge Jones (28-1-1NC) and outlining their comparative data. Jones, a former light-heavyweight champion who became the youngest title holder in UFC history at 23, is widely considered among the sport’s all-time greats, having secured victory in 28 of his 30 mixed martial arts bouts. His sole loss occurred in 2009 via disqualification against Matt Hamill, and his 2017 win over Daniel Cormier was later declared a no-contest following Jones’ subsequent failure of a doping test. Jones has articulated his reluctance to fight Aspinall by stating that the potential bout “does nothing” for his legacy, further asserting that the younger fighter has not “proven or done anything”. Nevertheless, statistical data indicates that the Mancunian has achieved remarkable figures across his nine UFC appearances. He currently holds several UFC records, specifically: the shortest average fight time at 2:02, the shortest bottom position time at 0:01, and the highest striking differential at 5.18. Additionally, Aspinall ranks second in the all-time record books for: knockdown average per 15 minutes at 4.09, and strikes landed per minute at 8.07. However, his most notable statistic might be his 93% first-round finish rate, having secured an exceptional 14 out of 15 career victories within the initial five minutes. Aspinall’s remarkable efficiency means he has never competed beyond the second round. This particular statistic raises questions regarding his endurance capabilities, despite his previous statement to BBC Sport that cardio is among his secret weapons. While Jones has fewer first-round finishes than Aspinall, with eight, he has consistently demonstrated his capacity to triumph in diverse stylistic matchups. Whether through dominant grappling, as seen against Ciryl Gane last year, or by securing a decision after a grueling contest, such as his victory over Alexander Gustafsson in 2013, Jones typically finds a path to victory. Although Aspinall lacks victories over numerous former champions and Hall-of-Famers, a distinction held by Jones, he has defeated five of the top-eight ranked heavyweights. In terms of striking, Aspinall primarily targets the head, leveraging his formidable knockout power, whereas Jones tends to diversify his attacks. Potential grappling exchanges between the two fighters would be compelling. Aspinall spends 0.09% of his UFC fight time in the bottom position, marking the lowest percentage in UFC history, while Jones ranks as the third lowest at 0.19%. Jones also boasts the second-highest takedown defense in UFC history at 95%. Aspinall possesses a 100% takedown defense rate, but the UFC only includes this statistic in its official records once a fighter has defended against a minimum of 20 takedowns, a threshold Aspinall has not yet reached. Having previously downplayed the possibility of fighting Aspinall, Jones characterized a potential matchup with Pereira as a “legacy bout”. Pereira, the 37-year-old former middleweight champion, secured the light-heavyweight title in 2023 and has since completed three successful defenses this year, each ending in a knockout. Despite his strong performance, the Brazilian does not lead any statistics in the UFC’s all-time record lists, though he does hold a divisional record for significant strike accuracy at 67.2%. Should Jones and Pereira compete at heavyweight, the Brazilian would also have the chance to become the UFC’s inaugural three-division champion. Notwithstanding White’s concerns, Pereira’s fan appeal and the high stakes of the potential contest—pitting Jones’ undefeated streak against Pereira’s bid for a third championship—suggest that few would object to such a fight. Aspinall has publicly teased Jones for pursuing Pereira, implying that the American is avoiding him, to which Jones responded by humorously changing his social media display picture to an image of a duck adorned with a UFC title.