Scrutiny of Elon Musk’s Assertions Regarding Democrats “Importing” Voters

Following his endorsement of Donald Trump for president in July, Elon Musk, who owns X, has made hundreds of posts concerning the US election, garnering over four billion views. BBC Verify, in collaboration with data company Node XL, examined all of his posts since that time—exceeding 8,000—and utilized keywords to identify the election topics he most frequently shared with his 200 million followers. Immigration and voting stand out as central themes, with Mr. Musk interacting with online misinformation regarding “illegal aliens” participating in the current election. Furthermore, he has consistently asserted that Democrats are “importing” immigrants to vote for their party in upcoming elections. However, voting and immigration specialists consulted have disputed these assertions, highlighting that non-citizens are prohibited from voting in federal elections and that, even if some individuals were to eventually qualify for citizenship, such a process would span numerous years. Mr. Musk has interacted with posts on X implying that undocumented immigrants are currently casting ballots in this election. On 30 October, he addressed an allegation that unauthorized voters could request mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania. Mr. Musk responded to the allegation, which local election officials have dismissed, by asking: “Is this real?” Non-citizens are legally barred from voting in US federal elections, with penalties encompassing a year in prison, a fine, and potential deportation. Multiple studies, conducted by both conservative and left-leaning organizations, indicate that occurrences of non-citizens voting in US federal elections are exceedingly rare. Since July, Mr. Musk has published at least 22 posts concerning the “importation” of voters from other countries. The phrasing in numerous such posts is unclear regarding whether he intends this to affect the current election or subsequent ones. In seven of these posts, he has stated that these individuals are being directed specifically into swing states. On 20 October, in a post that accumulated 21 million views, he declared: “Triple digit increases of illegals in swing states over the past 4 years. Voter importation at an unprecedented scale!” Accompanying this post, he disseminated a table illustrating substantial percentage increases in “unauthorized migrants” across Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, dating from 2021. This table, lacking a source, had been shared by “America,” a political action committee established by Mr. Musk to back Trump. Evidence for these statistics was not discoverable, though migration specialists directed attention to the most recent Department of Homeland Security report, which provides state-by-state estimates from 2018 to 2022. These estimates reveal that in several states, such as Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, the population of “unauthorised immigrants” either stayed consistent or decreased during this timeframe. While they do indicate significant numbers residing in these states under both the Biden administration and the Trump presidency, Mr. Musk has consistently implied that undocumented immigrants will acquire citizenship and influence future elections in favor of the Democrats. In a post on 25 October, which garnered nearly 17 million views, he stated: “Their stated plan is to give them citizenship as soon as possible, turning all swing states Dem. America would then become a one-party, deep blue socialist state.” Voting and immigration experts characterized this assertion as improbable. Democrats have articulated an aspiration for certain undocumented migrants in the US to achieve “an earned pathway” to citizenship, yet it is not their official policy to extend this to all. Michelle Mittelstadt of the Migration Policy Institute commented, “Some undocumented migrants who arrive in the US could have a route to citizenship – but that would typically take a decade or longer, if they even have a path at all, which many of them will not.” Across multiple posts, Mr. Musk references a 1986 bill that provided amnesty to roughly three million undocumented immigrants in the US. This legislation was approved by Congress and enacted by Republican President Ronald Reagan. It pardoned individuals who entered the US unlawfully but did not confer immediate citizenship upon them. Walter Olson, a voting rights expert from the conservative think tank, the Cato Institute, informed us: “Perhaps Musk imagines that a president or administration can simply decree mass naturalisation of noncitizens without going through the prescribed individual legal processes, and that Congress and the courts would simply then accept this. That’s not how it works.” On 25 October, Mr. Musk published on X: “Massive numbers flown directly to swing states and put on the fast track to citizenship. Voter importation.” This post, which accumulated nearly 19 million views, contained a chart labeled “inadmissible aliens” that Mario Nawfal had shared. Mr. Nawfal has received community notes (X’s user-driven fact-checking mechanism) on multiple occasions for presenting unsubstantiated claims. According to Node XL, he is among the individuals Mr. Musk has most frequently engaged with on X in recent months. The origin of the figure stating 823,000 “inadmissible aliens” remains unknown. The chart cites @fentasyl, an anonymous X account identified as a “data expert,” but lacks an explicit source. It depicts a significant rise in migrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti entering the US starting in 2023. This seems to allude to the Humanitarian Parole Scheme, initiated in January 2023. This program enables thoroughly screened migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to reside and work lawfully in the US, provided they have a US sponsor. A substantial number of individuals, specifically 531,000 people, have arrived through this scheme by the end of September 2024. Nevertheless, these individuals are not authorized to vote and are not placed on “a fast track to citizenship.” Their stay in the US is limited to a maximum of two years. While some might qualify to apply for protected status, which could prolong their temporary residency, even with such status, they would remain ineligible to vote in a federal election. Individuals who do not meet the criteria must depart the country or confront deportation procedures. Ms. Mittelstadt stated, “There is no direct path to a green card for people entering the US from Nicaragua, Venezuelan or Haiti on the Humanitarian Parole Scheme.” She further noted, “They could apply for asylum but these claims can take years, and if granted it doesn’t give you the right to vote.” Attaining US citizenship, and thereby the right to vote in a federal election, necessitates undergoing naturalization. To be eligible to apply, an individual must have been a lawful permanent resident for five years; or married to a US citizen and a lawful permanent resident for three years; or be an active member of the military. By August 2024, 3.3 million immigrants had completed the naturalization process to become citizens during the Biden administration. Under the Trump administration, this number was approximately three million individuals. It is also important to recognize that newly naturalized citizens do not automatically vote for the Democratic party. A recent survey indicated that 54 percent of naturalized citizens expressed an intention to vote for Harris in November, whereas 38 percent stated they would vote for Trump. We have sought a statement from X and requested additional substantiation for Mr. Musk’s assertions.