Scotland’s Christmas Forecast: Potential for Record Warmth

Those anticipating a white Christmas may face disappointment, as Scotland could potentially experience its warmest Christmas Day on record. Forecasters project that temperatures in the north east of Scotland might reach up to 14C on December 25. The current Scottish record stands at 15.1C, which was registered at Dyce in Aberdeenshire in 2011 and at Urquhart in Ross and Cromarty in 2016. The UK record is 15.6C, recorded at Killerton in Devon in 1920. Gillian Smart, a BBC Scotland weather forecaster, commented that the record is “within touching distance.” She stated: “We’re in for a largely dry and unseasonably mild Christmas Day, as our very changeable December weather continues.” Smart added: “For most it is dry under the influence of high pressure to the south but there’s a chance we could see some unseasonably high temperatures for north east Scotland in particular” and concluded: “It seems a mild rather than a white Christmas to come.” Should any snow occur in the UK, the Scottish Highlands are most likely to receive a fresh covering, which is not uncommon for this time of year. Stormy conditions are anticipated over the weekend, with yellow warnings for strong winds in effect for all of Scotland on Saturday, and for all areas except Orkney and Shetland on Sunday. Gusts between 50-60mph are expected in many regions, with a possibility of winds reaching 70mph around some coastal areas and high ground. This could lead to delays in public transport and some disruptions to the road network, which might have a greater impact than usual given the increased pre-Christmas weekend travel. Additionally, dangerous coastal conditions, including large waves, are expected. Dan Harris from the Met Office remarked: “Current indications are that more settled conditions are likely to develop from Christmas Eve onwards, with the majority of the UK coming under the influence of high pressure.” He noted: “The exception however may be northwest Scotland where there is a reasonable chance of further wind and rain.” Harris continued: “Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority.” He further stated: “Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance of further rain across northwest Scotland.” Concluding, he said: “Temperatures are expected to be widely mild, so if you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed.” While the term “white Christmas” is often linked with Bing Crosby’s singing, it is worth examining what truly constitutes an official white Christmas. For the day to be classified as an “official” white Christmas, only one snowflake needs to be observed within the 24-hour period – an event that occurs quite frequently. Despite being unseasonably warm, last Christmas was designated a white Christmas due to some snowfall in Aviemore and Tulloch Bridge. Since 1960, more than 50% of Christmases have been officially classified as white. The Met Office maintains weather stations across the country, from Edinburgh Castle to Pittodrie Stadium, which are used for meteorological measurements. It is not necessary for treetops to glisten; merely one of these weather stations needs to record a flurry of snow for the Met Office to declare it a white Christmas. However, the idyllic Christmas card scene of widespread lying snow, akin to those Crosby knew, is considerably rarer. This has occurred only four times since 1960, most recently during the very snowy December of 2010, when over 80% of weather stations reported snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day. Therefore, while a significant amount of snow is unlikely, the possibility of an officially defined white Christmas remains.