Satellite Imagery Reveals Damage to Iranian Military Sites from Israeli Strikes

Analysis of satellite imagery conducted by BBC Verify indicates destruction at several Iranian military locations following Israeli air strikes on Saturday. These locations encompass sites that specialists identify as facilities for missile manufacturing and air defence, with one having prior connections to Iran’s nuclear initiative. Post-strike satellite pictures reveal structural damage to buildings at a significant weapons development and manufacturing complex in Parchin, situated approximately 30km (18.5 miles) east of Tehran, which experts identify. According to specialists from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), this particular site has been associated with rocket manufacturing. A comparison of high-resolution satellite photographs from 9 September and 27 October suggests substantial damage to a minimum of four structures. One of these structures, identified as Taleghan 2, was previously connected to Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In 2016, the IAEA discovered uranium particles at this location, prompting inquiries regarding prohibited nuclear activities. Khojir, located approximately 20km north-west of Parchin, represents another location seemingly hit during the Israeli air strikes. Fabian Hinz of the ISS states, “Khojir is known as the area with the highest concentration of ballistic missile-related infrastructure within Iran.” This site experienced a significant, unexplained explosion in 2020. Satellite photographs indicate that a minimum of two buildings within the complex sustained severe damage. Analysts from Sibylline, a risk intelligence firm, concluded that the damage inflicted upon Iranian facilities, thought to be involved in rocket fuel production at both Parchin and Khojir, will eventually diminish Iran’s capacity to “fire another salvo of the scale necessary to breach Israeli air defences”. Satellite imagery captured subsequent to the Israeli strikes also shows damage at a military installation in Shahroud, situated approximately 350km to the east of Tehran. This area, found in the northern province of Semnan, holds importance due to its involvement in manufacturing long-range missile components, as stated by Fabian Hinz of the IISS. The Shahroud Space Centre, managed by the Revolutionary Guards Corps, is located nearby; Iran launched a military satellite from there in 2020. Israel asserted that it successfully struck Iran’s aerial defence systems at multiple sites, but verifying this claim using available satellite imagery proves challenging. We have acquired satellite imagery that seems to depict damage to a location identified by experts as a radar installation. This site is situated on Shah Nakhjir mountain, near the western city of Ilam, and Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East specialist at Janes, a defence intelligence company, suggests it might have been a recently modernized radar defence system. While the installation itself was created decades ago, satellite photographs examined by open-source specialists indicate it has undergone substantial refurbishment in recent years. Furthermore, we have identified what appears to be damage to a storage facility at the Abadan Oil Refinery, located in the south-western province of Khuzestan. Nevertheless, the cause of this damage remains unknown, and it is probable that other areas across Iran have sustained damage from debris or malfunctioning defence systems. The New York Times reported, citing Israeli officials, that the Abadan oil refinery was among the targets of its air strikes on Saturday morning. On Saturday, Iranian authorities confirmed that Israel had targeted Khuzestan province. The Abadan oil refinery stands as the nation’s largest, with a production capacity of 500,000 barrels daily, as stated by its chief executive. Satellite imagery does not consistently provide definitive evidence for identifying damaged structures. For instance, a verified photograph showing smoke ascending near the Hazrat Amir Brigade Air Defence base implied a successful targeting. However, satellite imagery of that area taken on Sunday contains excessive shadows, preventing confirmation of any damage to the location. Iran initiated a missile assault on Israel in early October, marking the second such instance this year, following an attack involving 300 missiles and drones in April. Further reporting contributed by Tom Spencer and Daniele Palumbo.