Russia’s Oreshnik Missile: Emerging Details and Expert Analysis

On Thursday, the Ukrainian city of Dnipro experienced a Russian air strike that eyewitnesses characterized as uncommon, leading to explosions lasting three hours. This assault involved a missile strike of such intensity that Ukrainian officials subsequently stated it exhibited features of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Western officials promptly refuted this claim, asserting that such an attack would have activated a nuclear alert in the US. Several hours following the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a televised address that Russia had deployed a “new conventional intermediate-range” missile, designated Oreshnik, which translates to hazel tree in Russian. Putin stated that the weapon achieved a speed of Mach 10, equivalent to 2.5-3km per second (10 times the speed of sound), and added that “there are currently no ways of counteracting this weapon.” He further indicated that a significant military-industrial facility in Dnipro, involved in missile and armament production, had been struck. He characterized the attack as a “successful” test, as the “target was reached.” The following day, addressing senior defence officials, Putin affirmed that testing of the missile would persist, “including in combat conditions.” Despite Putin’s characterization of the weapon, a definitive consensus regarding its nature appears to be lacking. Ukrainian military intelligence asserts that the missile represents a new variant of ICBM, identified as Kedr (cedar). They report it traveled at Mach 11, taking 15 minutes to reach its destination from a launch site over 1,000km (620 miles) distant in Russia’s Astrakhan region. According to their assessment, the missile carried six warheads, each containing six sub-munitions. This hypothesis is supported by BBC Verify’s analysis of video footage from the strike. While much of the footage is indistinct or of low quality, it distinctly displays six flashes in the night sky, each consisting of a cluster of six separate projectiles. The impact site is an industrial zone situated southwest of Dnipro city. Should Putin’s description prove accurate, the missile falls within the upper range of the hypersonic definition, a speed rarely attained. Speed is a critical factor, as a missile’s increased velocity reduces its travel time to the target, thereby diminishing the reaction window for a defending military. Typically, a ballistic missile reaches its target by traversing an arcing trajectory into the atmosphere and then descending towards its intended destination. During its descent, it accelerates and accumulates kinetic energy, which provides it with increased maneuverability. This enables it to execute evasive maneuvers, such as a “defending wriggle,” as it approaches the target, making interception by surface-to-air missile systems (like Ukraine’s US-built Patriot defence missile system) especially challenging. While militaries are accustomed to defending against such threats, increased speed exacerbates the difficulty of interception. This is likely why Putin underscored the missile’s speed when announcing this new weapon type. Ukraine has intercepted approximately 80% of missiles launched by Russia, a remarkable statistic. However, the enhanced speeds of these ballistic missiles are designed to attempt to lower that interception rate. Ilya Kramnik, a Russian military expert, informed the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestiya that the new missile, whose development had previously been classified, is probably at the higher end of medium-range missiles. He stated, “It is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles [with a range of] 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental.” This capability could place nearly all of Europe within its reach, but not the US. Kramnik further remarked, “It is obviously equipped with a separating warhead with individual guidance units.” He posited that it might be a scaled-down variant of the Yars-M missile complex, which is an ICBM. Reports indicated that Russia commenced production of an updated version of this missile complex last year, featuring significantly more mobile independent warheads. Dmitry Kornev, another expert, informed the publication that the Oreshnik might have been developed from the shorter-range Iskander missiles—already frequently deployed in Ukraine—but incorporating a new-generation engine. He noted that an Iskander equipped with an enlarged engine was utilized at the Kapustin Yar test site in southern Russia last spring, suggesting this could have been the Oreshnik. The missile used in Thursday’s strike on Ukraine was launched from this same location. Military analyst Vladislav Shurygin conveyed to Izvestiya that the Oreshnik possesses the capability to defeat any current modern missile defense systems. He also stated that it could obliterate deeply buried, well-protected bunkers without employing a nuclear warhead, though no evidence of underground facilities being destroyed at the Dnipro plant has emerged. Igor Korotchenko, another Russian analyst, informed Tass news agency that the missile featured multiple independently guided warheads, asserting that the “practically simultaneous arrival of the warheads at the target” proved exceptionally effective. Justin Crump, CEO and founder of the risk advisory firm Sibylline, communicated to BBC Verify that the missile has the potential to significantly test Ukraine’s air defenses. He remarked, “Russia’s short range ballistic missiles have been one of the more potent threats to Ukraine in this conflict,” adding, “Faster, more advanced systems would increase that an order of magnitude.”