Russia’s Costly Battlefield Gains Achieved Through ‘Meat-Grinder’ Tactics

As 2024 approaches its conclusion and winter commences, Russian forces continue to push back their Ukrainian adversaries. In total, Russia has seized and reclaimed approximately 2,350 sq km (907 sq miles) of territory in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s western Kursk region. Nevertheless, the human cost has been severe. Britain’s defence ministry reports that Russia sustained 45,680 casualties in November, a higher number than in any month since its full-scale invasion in February 2022. According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence assessment, Russia experienced a daily average loss of 1,523 men, encompassing both killed and wounded. It further states that on 28 November, Russia’s losses exceeded 2,000 men in a single day, marking an unprecedented occurrence. “We’re seeing the Russians grinding out more advances,” an official stated anonymously. “But at enormous cost.” Officials clarified that these casualty figures were compiled from open-source material, sometimes cross-referenced with classified data. Overall, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that Russia has lost approximately 125,800 soldiers during its autumn offensives. The ISW indicates that Russia’s “meat-grinder” tactics mean Moscow is sacrificing over 50 soldiers for each square kilometre of captured territory. Ukraine does not permit the publication of its own military casualties, leading to an absence of official estimates for the past few months. The Russian defence ministry claims that more than 38,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been lost (killed and wounded) in Kursk alone – a figure that is impossible to verify. Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, reports that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, with an additional 35,000 missing. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied US media reports of as many as 80,000 Ukrainian troop fatalities, stating the number was “much less”. He did not provide his own specific figure. However, when considered together, the Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures highlight the terrifying intensity of the fighting occurring in Kursk and Ukraine’s eastern regions. Western officials see no indication of this situation changing. “The Russian forces are highly likely to continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by using mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains,” one official remarked. The pace of Russia’s advance has accelerated in recent weeks (though it still does not match the speed of its rapid advances in the initial months of the war), with this acceleration being tempered solely by a significant shift in the ratio of artillery fire between the two sides. Where Russia was once capable of firing as many as 13 shells for every one Ukraine fired back, the ratio is now approximately 1.5 to 1. This dramatic turnaround is partly explained by increased domestic production, as well as successful Ukrainian attacks on depots containing Russian and North Korean ammunition. But artillery, while important, no longer plays such a decisive role. “The bad news is that there’s been a massive increase in Russian glide bomb use,” one Western official said, “with devastating effects on the front line.” Russia’s deployment of glide bombs – launched from jets flying well inside Russian-controlled airspace – has increased 10-fold over the past year, the official stated. Glide bombs and drones have transformed the conflict, as each side races to innovate. “We’re at the point where drone warfare made infantry toothless, if not obsolete,” Serhiy, a front line soldier, communicated via WhatsApp. Regarding manpower, both Ukraine and Russia continue to face difficulties, albeit for distinct reasons. Ukraine has been unwilling to reduce its conscription age below 25, thereby excluding all individuals aged 18 to 24, apart from volunteers. Russia, conversely, retains the capacity to replenish its losses, though President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to initiate a fresh round of mobilisation points to various domestic considerations. Soaring inflation, overflowing hospitals, and issues with compensation payments to bereaved families are all contributing factors. In some regions of Russia, bonuses offered to volunteers willing to enlist for the war in Ukraine have risen as high as three million roubles (about £23,500; $30,000). “I’m not suggesting that the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse,” the official commented. “I’m just saying that pressures continue to mount there.” Recent events in Syria could add to Moscow’s challenges, as the Kremlin evaluates the resources it can afford to devote to its defence of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, with the situation in Syria developing rapidly, officials state it is too early to ascertain the impact of these events on the war in Ukraine. “There’s certainly potentially longer-term prioritisation dilemmas for Russia,” one official remarked. “It depends how the situation in Syria goes.” Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.