Pennsylvania Voters’ Decisive Influence in the Election

Bill Donovan recognizes the significance of each vote in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. For this reason, the 78-year-old Democrat traveled to various universities across Pittsburgh, engaging with students in coffee shops and on sidewalks to facilitate their voter registration. Mr Donovan intends to support Vice-President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election and volunteers with a non-profit voter registration organization aimed at increasing Democratic participation in the state. Holding 19 electoral votes, the highest number among swing states, Pennsylvania has emerged as a critical objective in this election cycle, drawing attention to the role of ordinary citizens. Mr Donovan stated that this situation must be utilized. “A lot of people are saying this is where it’s going to be decided… and I think they might be right,” he told the BBC. “That gives us just a little more incentive to keep going when we feel like going home.” The voting patterns in Pennsylvania are frequently regarded as an indicator of the national election outcome; historically, the candidate who secured victory in the state in 10 out of the past 12 presidential elections ultimately became president. The state has a record of closely contested elections. Former President Donald Trump secured Pennsylvania in 2016. Subsequently, President Joe Biden achieved a narrow victory four years later. As election day approaches, surveys indicate a tie between Harris and Trump. The influence associated with voting in Pennsylvania is precisely why Dimitri Chernozhukov, a 21-year-old university student at Lafayette College in Easton, decided to pursue his education in the state. “My vote matters here,” said the soon-to-be, two-time Trump voter. “When I was registering in Pennsylvania, I made sure all the forms were correct because this vote matters.” Pennsylvania has experienced a high volume of campaign visits from both Harris and Trump, who, accompanied by their running mates, have collectively conducted over 50 appearances within the state since mid-July. Kari Holmes, a pastor in eastern Pennsylvania, observes the intense focus on her state and acknowledges the responsibility of being among its highly sought-after voters. She has collaborated with other religious leaders to motivate voters of color—a demographic actively courted by campaigns—to participate in the election. “This is the time to feel the gravity of our vote as voters of colour in this very important commonwealth,” Ms Holmes, who plans to vote for Harris, said. Given approximately nine million registered voters in Pennsylvania, voter participation is crucial for either campaign to achieve success in November. Voter registration data indicates an almost even division in political affiliation, comprising approximately 3.9 million registered Democrats and 3.6 million registered Republicans. Additionally, there are about 1.4 million registered voters identifying as Independent or with third parties, a group both campaigns have actively pursued. Marc Pane, owner of an auto-repair business in Scranton, is one of the millions of registered Republicans eager to vote for Trump this November. “It could come down to Pennsylvania,” Mr Pane said. “We could make or break the election. It’s important. Our vote is important, more so than ever and I’m really kind of happy it’s us.” In Pennsylvania, Democrats primarily reside in urban centers such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, situated along the eastern and western boundaries. The central, rural regions of the state tend to be strongly Republican. Specifically, Erie County in western Pennsylvania and Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania are considered bellwether counties, indicating their voting patterns frequently align with national trends. These two counties supported Trump in 2016 but shifted to Biden in 2020. “They have the balance of urban, rural, suburban and it’s really a place to look on election night to see what’s happening,” Christopher Borick, who directs the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, informed the BBC. Lori McFarland, the chair of the Lehigh County Democrats, dedicates her efforts to securing support for Harris among residents of Lehigh County, which borders Northampton County. She expresses uncertainty regarding whether all voters fully grasp the significance of their choice by 5 November. “It’s challenging to not get overexcited, stay calm, stay focused and know what the job is,” Ms McFarland said. “There is pressure because both the campaigns [and] the world is looking at not only Lehigh and Northampton counties, they are also looking at Erie County.” “We are the three major counties that feel like it’s falling on us, it’s overwhelming,” she told the BBC. The concentrated effort to engage voters in this vital swing state results in a surge of political advertisements. From 22 July to October 8, the Harris campaign allocated $159.1m (£122.6m) to advertising within Pennsylvania, as per a recent AdImpact report. During the identical timeframe, the Trump campaign expended $120.2m (£92.4m). Andy Jones, a Trump supporter in Allegheny County, commented that television and radio advertisements, billboards, and yard signs in western Pennsylvania are “out of control”. He characterized the situation as a competition among his neighbors to determine who could “out-sign” the other on their properties. “People are definitely charged up around here,” he said. “It’s an important state.”