Middle East Leaders Weigh Trump’s Potential Return Amidst Regional Dynamics

With leaders from numerous Arab and Islamic countries convening in Saudi Arabia’s capital for a summit, considerable discussion revolves around the implications of a potential second Trump term for the Middle East. While Europe has expressed concerns regarding Donald Trump’s well-known unpredictability, Gulf Arab states generally perceive him as a stabilizing influence. Khalaf al-Habtoor, a notable UAE business leader, stated in his officially sanctioned Arab News opinion piece: “In a Middle East where security is paramount, Trump’s focus on strengthening alliances and curbing extremist forces offers a way forward.” In Saudi Arabia, Trump’s standing is considerably higher compared to Joe Biden. Trump selected Riyadh for his initial international visit as President in 2017, a decision reportedly facilitated by Rupert Murdoch. Via his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, Trump maintains cordial ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, also identified as MBS. The Crown Prince has not overlooked or pardoned Biden’s declaration that Saudi Arabia should be treated as a pariah due to its human rights record. Trump’s tenure in office presented a varied legacy concerning the Middle East. He garnered favor with Israel and provoked discontent in the Arab world by acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and recognizing Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights. However, he also brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, leading to the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco establishing complete diplomatic ties with Israel, and Sudan agreeing to follow suit. Trump adopted, and continues to hold, a hawkish stance regarding Iran. In 2018, he withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Labeling it “the worst deal in history”, he echoed the sentiments of numerous regional governments who believed the accord, intended to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations, did not address Iran’s ballistic missile program and provided funds to the Revolutionary Guards, which were subsequently used to support proxy militias across the region. During 2020, Trump authorized the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, an action that enraged Iran but pleased many Gulf Arab nations. However, the current Middle East differs from the region Trump departed from the White House. Israel is engaged in conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, and has also exchanged attacks with the Houthis in Yemen and their Iranian supporters. Under the Biden administration, American influence in the region appears to have diminished, with the White House largely failing to curb its close ally, Israel, as it conducts military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. A potential return of Trump to the White House is widely considered likely to grant Israel greater latitude to target sites in Iran—such as oil and nuclear installations—which the Biden administration had designated as restricted. Former Israeli intelligence officer Joshua Steinrich commented: “His staunch support for Israel and aggressive stance towards Iran’s destabilising efforts made him a key ally in the region, and his return to power is expected to intensify efforts to limit Iran’s influence.” Nevertheless, another shift has occurred in the region. With China acting as mediator, Saudi Arabia and Iran have consented to resolve their disagreements, concluding seven years of animosity, most notably exemplified by the conflict in Yemen where the Saudi air force attacked Iran-supported Houthi rebels. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s military head traveled to Tehran for a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, and both nations are now discussing enhancing their collaboration on defense and security. Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab neighbors in the area have regarded Iran as a significant security threat. However, the unexpected drone attack on Saudi oil installations in 2019, blamed on Iran-supported militants in Iraq, served as a stark reminder to the Gulf Arab states of their susceptibility to Iranian aggression. Consequently, as an Arab and Islamic summit advocates for an end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, there exists a blend of optimism and some apprehension regarding the implications of a second Trump presidency for the Middle East.