Macron Consults Centrist Bayrou Amidst Impending PM Selection

On Friday, President Emmanuel Macron held a meeting with centrist leader François Bayrou amidst growing speculation regarding his selection for the next Prime Minister, an effort aimed at resolving several months of political instability. This meeting occurred nine days after French Members of Parliament removed Michel Barnier from his position as prime minister through a no-confidence vote. President Macron had previously stated that a successor would be named by the close of Thursday. Nevertheless, as Thursday progressed, there was no official announcement confirming Bayrou’s appointment, despite preparations for a transfer of power, including a red carpet, being visible at the prime minister’s official residence. French political affairs have remained in a stalemate since President Macron initiated snap parliamentary elections over the summer. The upcoming appointment of a new prime minister will mark his fourth such selection within the current year. A BFMTV opinion poll conducted on Thursday indicated that 61% of French voters expressed concern about the prevailing political climate. Manuel Bompard, leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, criticized the situation as a “pathetic spectacle”. President Macron concluded a visit to Poland prematurely on Thursday. He was initially anticipated to announce his new prime minister that evening but subsequently delayed the announcement until Friday morning. Following this, he held a meeting with Bayrou, aged 73, at the Elysée Palace. The discussion lasted approximately one hour and forty-five minutes and was characterized as tense by French media outlets. President Macron has affirmed his commitment to serve until his second term concludes in 2027, notwithstanding Barnier’s removal from office the previous week. Should he select Bayrou, who leads the centrist MoDem party, the subsequent challenge will involve establishing a government capable of avoiding a similar fate to Barnier’s in the National Assembly. It is speculated that he will either endeavor to incorporate centre-left parties into the government or forge an agreement to prevent them from removing the next prime minister. President Macron has previously conducted round-table discussions with leaders representing all major political parties, with the exception of the far-left France Unbowed, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen. Other individuals considered strong contenders to succeed Michel Barnier, whose tenure as prime minister lasted only three months, included Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu and former centre-left prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve. French media cited former foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, another potential candidate, stating he declined the position due to being in his late 70s. Barnier, a former Brexit negotiator, was removed from office after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally collaborated with left-wing Members of Parliament to oppose his proposals for €60 billion (£50 billion) in tax increases and expenditure reductions. His objective was to decrease France’s budget deficit, which is projected to reach 6.1% of the nation’s economic output (GDP) this year. Within the political framework of France’s Fifth Republic, the president serves a five-year term and subsequently designates a prime minister. The prime minister’s proposed cabinet is then formally appointed by the president. Notably, President Macron initiated early parliamentary elections during the summer, following unsatisfactory results in the June EU elections. This electoral outcome resulted in a political impasse for France, characterized by three significant political blocs: the left, the centre, and the far right. Ultimately, he selected Barnier to establish a minority government, which depended on Marine Le Pen’s National Rally for its continued existence. With that government now having collapsed, President Macron seeks to re-establish stability independently of her party. Three centre-left political parties—the Socialists, the Greens, and the Communists—have distanced themselves from the more radical left-wing LFI and have engaged in discussions regarding the formation of a new government. Nevertheless, they have articulated a clear preference for a leftist prime minister of their choosing if they are to participate in a broad-based government. Greens leader Marine Tondelier stated on French television on Thursday, “I told you I wanted someone from the left and the Greens and I think Mr Bayrou isn’t one or the other,” further remarking that she questioned how the centrist faction, having been defeated in parliamentary elections, could occupy the prime ministerial position while upholding existing policies. The relationship between the centre-left parties and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical LFI appears to have deteriorated following the three parties’ choice to engage in discussions with President Macron. Subsequent to the LFI leader urging his former allies to avoid a coalition agreement, Olivier Faure of the Socialists commented on French television that “the more Mélenchon shouts the less he’s heard”. Concurrently, Marine Le Pen has advocated for the incoming government to consider her party’s policies concerning the cost of living, by constructing a budget that “doesn’t cross each party’s red lines”. Michel Barnier’s interim government has proposed legislation designed to extend the provisions of the 2024 budget into the following year. However, a new budget for 2025 will require approval once the subsequent government assumes power.