Latino Voters’ Role in Trump’s Working-Class Coalition Victory

Donald Trump achieved a conclusive election win against Kamala Harris, bolstered by segments of the electorate traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. The Republican president-elect demonstrated robust backing from white working-class voters, who were instrumental in his initial ascent to the White House in 2016. He also garnered substantial support from Latino voters and performed more strongly than anticipated among younger Americans, particularly males. Exit polls indicate that Trump saw a significant 14 percentage-point increase in support among Latino voters, a demographic that has been a cornerstone of the Democratic voter base for many decades, when compared to the 2020 election. Trump’s realignment of the voting landscape was most evident in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states, collectively known as the “blue wall,” were crucial to Joe Biden’s 2020 triumph. In this election, Trump secured victories in all three, thereby thwarting Democratic aspirations for Harris to achieve a win, even after initial election night defeats in the southern states of North Carolina and Georgia. During his victory address in Florida, Trump, who is also projected to win the popular vote, attributed his success to “the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition” in American history. He informed an enthusiastic audience, “They came from all quarters. Union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American.” He concluded, “We had everybody, and it was beautiful.” In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, Trump received a substantial surge of backing from the state’s expanding Latino community. Exit polls indicated that Latinos constituted approximately 5% of the total vote in Pennsylvania. Trump secured 42% of this demographic’s vote, a rise from 27% in his 2020 contest against Joe Biden. While vote counting is ongoing and figures may adjust, these polls generally reflect current electoral patterns. Within Pennsylvania’s “Latino belt,” an eastern industrial region that has shown a rightward political shift over the past two elections, several voters expressed no astonishment at the outcome. Samuel Negron, a Pennsylvania state constable and a member of Allentown’s sizable Puerto Rican community, stated, “It’s simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago.” Mr. Negron, along with other Trump adherents in the predominantly Latino city, cited additional factors contributing to their community’s inclination towards Trump, such as social concerns and a belief that their family values now resonate more closely with the Republican Party. Nevertheless, the predominant reason cited was the economy, particularly inflation. Mr. Negron further explained, “Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents.” He continued, “A lot of us have woken up, in my opinion, from Democratic lies that things have been better. We realised things were better then.” Prior to the election, surveys also indicated that numerous Latinos, both nationwide and specifically in Pennsylvania, were attracted to Trump’s proposals for restricting migrants at the US-Mexico border and implementing significantly more stringent immigration legislation. Daniel Campo, a Venezuelan-American, commented that Trump’s assertions of encroaching “socialism” brought to mind the circumstances he departed from in his native country. He stated, “I understand what [migrants] are leaving. But you have to do it the right way. I came the right way.” He added, “Things have to be done legally. Many of us were worried that the borders were just open” during the Biden-Harris administration. The combined effect of the Latino electorate’s movement towards Trump, his sustained appeal among white working-class voters, and his enhanced backing from non-college educated voters broadly, presented an insurmountable challenge for the Harris campaign. However, Trump also strengthened his standing in some unexpected areas. In 2020, Joe Biden held a 24-point lead among voters under 30. This election cycle, that advantage diminished to only 11 points. Although Black voters nationally continued to predominantly support Harris (85%), Trump’s backing within this demographic in Wisconsin more than doubled, rising from 8% in 2020 to 22% in the current election. Among Wisconsin’s most critical electoral battlegrounds were the three counties encircling Milwaukee, collectively referred to as the Wow counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. Harris did not substantially enhance Biden’s 2020 vote share in these suburban locales, and her support also declined in the state’s more rural, predominantly white regions where Trump holds sway. Initial results further suggest that Harris did not secure as many votes as Biden in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s largest and most diverse urban center. Michael Wagner, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, commented that her direct overtures to working-class voters likely had limited impact due to the prevailing national political environment. Ted Dietzler cast his ballot at a fire station situated on the periphery of the small city of Waukesha. Donning a Green Bay Packers hat, he stated, “I’m voting Trump because of the border, the economy, and no more wars.” Dietzler remarked, “We saw a huge difference when Trump was president,” and mentioned his attraction to Trump’s welcoming of former Democrats such as Robert F Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard, both of whom are expected to assume positions within the Trump administration. He asserted, “Inflation is a big deal, and I don’t think Harris quite gets it.” He concluded, “I think we’ll all just be better off with Trump back.” Trump’s nationwide economic message also resonated with working-class voters in Michigan, a Midwestern state. With almost all ballots tallied, Trump holds a lead of approximately 85,000 votes in the state he lost in 2020. He expanded his proportion of votes in rural regions and in Macomb County, an area populated by numerous working-class voters in the Detroit suburbs. Nahim Uddin, a delivery driver and former Ford car-worker, was one such voter who cast his ballot for Trump, believing the former president would reduce prices. The 34-year-old stated, “I went to go purchase a car – the interest rates had skyrocketed.” He added, “That’s the whole reason I voted for him.” Similarly, Yian Yian Shein, a small business owner in Warren, shared this sentiment, expressing that Trump would decrease income taxes and assist individuals like herself. Democrats attempted to customize their economic messages in Michigan, highlighting their investments in electric vehicle production and obtaining an endorsement from United Automobile Workers president Shawn Fain, a vocal critic of Trump. However, Republicans managed to “neutralise” these messages by contending that the shift to electric vehicles would result in job losses, according to Michigan State University professor Matt Grossmann. Ultimately, the factor that harmed Democrats’ standing among blue-collar voters across various demographic segments was the perception that they were responsible for elevated prices and constrained household budgets. University of Michigan professor Jonathan Hanson stated, “Largely, voters have felt economic pain due to the post-Covid inflationary period, and they’re taking it out on Biden” and Harris. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher analyzes the presidential race in his twice-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. UK readers can subscribe here, while those outside the UK can sign up here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.