John Swinney’s Assessment of the SNP’s Renewed Momentum

Scotland’s political landscape has experienced significant upheaval this year, particularly for John Swinney. In April, the seasoned SNP politician was a backbencher in Holyrood, considering retirement in 2026. However, Humza Yousaf’s resignation led to Mr. Swinney’s return to government. He subsequently campaigned as his party faced one of its most severe electoral defeats, a result he stated “could have easily been a wipeout.” Currently, he asserts the SNP has regained momentum and is preparing for a Holyrood election, where he intends to serve a full term as first minister until 2031. The first minister discussed the significant events of 2024 during an interview with BBC Scotland’s Podlitical podcast. At the beginning of the year, the SNP was in a challenging position. Humza Yousaf assumed office following a contentious leadership election, and he appeared to face continuous obstacles. Major announcements he planned were frequently overshadowed by new developments from Police Scotland regarding Operation Branchform, the investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances. Mr. Yousaf aimed to foster greater discussion regarding the SNP’s direction, departing from the centralized approach of his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon. This resulted in ongoing scrutiny and dissent concerning policy, leading to the abandonment of some controversial proposals and significant debate about the party’s governmental alliance with the Greens. Ultimately, Mr. Yousaf ended the partnership with the Greens abruptly. Within days, the Greens indicated their readiness to retaliate through a confidence vote in Holyrood. The first minister was compelled to resign. Facing an precarious situation, the SNP appointed John Swinney. His acceptance of the position, which he had chosen not to pursue a year prior, was perceived as an act of loyalty to his party rather than personal aspiration. He acknowledges that his “sense of duty prevailed,” stating, “I felt I had to come back in and strengthen and rebuild my party and its reputation with the public.” The magnitude of the challenges became evident shortly after, when a general election was announced. Mr. Swinney recounted observing the exit poll results, which indicated the SNP would lose the majority of its seats, and reflecting, “this could actually have been worse.” He elaborated, “The conditions that I inherited, we could quite easily have been wiped out,” adding, “I don’t think it would have taken much for that to have happened, when you look at the vote shares and all that went on.” This perspective does not diminish the seriousness of the outcome; the reduction from 48 seats to nine constituted “an absolutely colossal setback.” Nevertheless, Mr. Swinney maintained confidence in his ability to recover from the situation. “That’s why my party turned to me,” he stated. “They knew if there was one person on the planet who could turn things around for the SNP, it was John Swinney.” Such assertiveness might typically be associated more with Alex Salmond than with John Swinney. Mr. Swinney previously served as a key aide to Mr. Salmond and later held a comparable position under Nicola Sturgeon. However, he indicates that his leadership strategies were primarily influenced by discussions with backbenchers, including Lib Dem Willie Rennie. The two conversed for “quite a while” during a late-night gender reform debate at Holyrood, leading Mr. Swinney to a clear understanding that he had lost the practice of engaging with opposition MSPs. While on the back benches, he had increased opportunities for such conversations, and upon rejoining the government, he was “determined I wasn’t going to lose that important understanding of the need to connect.” As the head of a minority administration, Mr. Swinney recognizes the necessity of fostering cooperation and identifying shared interests with political adversaries to achieve legislative progress. Nevertheless, this approach does not preclude political engagement. The draft budget emerged from intense negotiations between the SNP and Labour, parties that compete for a comparable voter demographic and consider each other primary electoral opponents. This represented a significant change in the government’s rhetoric and potentially in parliamentary dynamics. In September, Finance Secretary Shona Robison outlined substantial in-year spending reductions to achieve fiscal balance, discussing austerity in a somber manner. Two months subsequent, she presented notable new programs and conveyed a message of “hope.” While