Israel Capitalizes on Syrian Instability to Target Military Infrastructure

Following numerous air strikes against Syrian military infrastructure and the capture of strategic locations, such as a mountain peak offering an unobstructed view of Damascus, Israel seems to be leveraging what it perceives as an unprecedented window of opportunity. The Syrian command structures were reportedly in disarray, with vital posts seemingly abandoned after the collapse of the Assad regime. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has stated that its air force and navy executed over 350 strikes since Saturday night, neutralizing an estimated 70-80% of Syria’s strategic military assets spanning from Damascus to Latakia. These targets encompassed fighter aircraft, radar and air defense installations, naval vessels, and weapons stockpiles, according to the IDF. Defence Minister Israel Katz stated, “The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success.” Additionally, the IDF has deployed ground forces eastward from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into a demilitarized buffer zone within Syria, and, as it now acknowledges, slightly past it. Katz reported that he instructed the military to “establish a sterile defence zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria, without a permanent Israeli presence.” An Israeli commentator remarked that the preceding 72 hours “stood out even for people who thought they had already seen everything.” Yoav Limor wrote in the Israel Hayom newspaper, “It didn’t strip the Syrian military of specific capabilities only – it sent it back to the starting line, bereft of any significant strategic capabilities.” Udi Etzion commented on the Walla news site, “The IDF operation to destroy Syria’s military capabilities is the largest it has ever undertaken.” Former Israeli Air Force officers, in online posts, noted that certain attacks conducted during this operation were based on plans developed years prior. A military analyst indicated that some targets had been identified by Israel as early as the mid-1970s. Concurrently, Israeli media reported that troops have secured positions in the Golan, including the summit of Mt Hermon, which is known as Jabal al-Sheikh in Arabic. Kobi Michael, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), was quoted by the Ynet news website as stating, “The territory guarantees strategic control over the whole southern Syrian arena, which generates an immediate threat to Israel.” He added, “There is no higher vantage point than the Syrian part of the Golan.” Officials emphasize that Israel’s actions are driven by its national security interests in the aftermath of the Assad regime’s collapse. They assert that the objective is to prevent weapons previously held by the regime from being acquired by undesirable entities – specifically, Syrian extremist factions or its long-standing adversary, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. Hezbollah and its supporter, Iran, were strong allies of Assad, assisting him in maintaining power throughout Syria’s protracted civil war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a video message on Tuesday, “We will not allow an extreme Islamic terrorist entity to act against Israel beyond its border, putting its citizens at risk.” Syria and Israel engaged in conflict during the Middle East Wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973, and officially consider each other enemy states. Bashar al-Assad’s Syria was a notable regional military power. In recent years, Israel had conducted hundreds of strikes against it, which were seldom openly acknowledged. Israel’s strategy involved maintaining a degree of deniability for itself and for Assad, to avoid compelling him to retaliate. These operations primarily aimed at preventing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, given that the primary transport route was overland from Syria to Lebanon, as well as targeting arms manufacturing facilities and Syrian air defense systems, which presented a risk to Israeli warplanes on missions. Israel refrained from large-scale attacks that might have escalated into a broader conflict and endeavored to prevent clashes with Russia, which had become Assad’s foremost supporter in recent years. Certain defense analysts propose that Israel sought to avoid undermining the Syrian regime, concerned about the potential chaos that could ensue if its adversaries gained control. For many years, Israel and Syria, under its secular Baathist regime, adhered to established red lines; it was a familiar opponent. However, the rapid progress of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) necessitated the swift development of a new Israeli strategy. UN peacekeepers are still present in the buffer zone, which was established in Syrian territory after the 1973 Middle East War, and have asserted that Israel’s deployment of ground forces into this area constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement that created it. Israeli officials contend that the ceasefire agreement is no longer valid, given that the other signatory party no longer exists, and that its actions are temporary and restricted to self-defense. A UN peacekeeping spokesperson stated that peacekeepers were “unable to move freely within the buffer zone following recent events,” further emphasizing that it was “imperative that the UN peacekeepers are allowed carry out their mandated tasks without hindrance.” UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric commented, “We’re against these types of attacks. I think this is a turning point for Syria. It should not be used by its neighbours to encroach on the territory of Syria.” Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, and the Arab League have all released official statements, with several characterizing the actions as a land grab exploiting recent developments, and a breach of Syria’s sovereignty and international law. France and Germany have also voiced criticism of Israel’s actions; France demanded Israel’s troop withdrawal from the buffer area, while Germany cautioned Israel, alongside Turkey to Syria’s north, against jeopardizing the prospects of a peaceful transition in Syria. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated, “We must not allow the internal Syrian dialogue process to be torpedoed from the outside.” The US has pressed Israel to guarantee that its incursion remains “temporary.” Nevertheless, among Israelis, there has been widespread public backing for the nation’s pre-emptive measures. Multiple media outlets are highlighting the potential threat presented by Syria’s new Islamist leaders, given that HTS is still broadly classified as a terrorist organization. In the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Amihai Attali commended Israel’s military and political establishments, asserting that they had learned a crucial lesson from the lethal Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, which surprised the country. He wrote, “One of the most important lessons of the invasion, massacre and mass-kidnappings is that we cannot afford the privilege of trying to interpret enemy intentions.” He concluded, “We can’t afford to make mistakes on that front. We don’t have the margin of error for that.”