Irish General Election: RTÉ Exit Poll Indicates Close Three-Way Contest

An exit poll conducted in the Republic of Ireland indicates a highly competitive general election, with Sinn Féin securing 21.1% of first preference votes and Fine Gael close behind at 21%, suggesting the outcome is too close to determine definitively. The survey also shows Fianna Fáil receiving 19.5% of first preference votes. Furthermore, it suggests that 20% of second preference votes are allocated to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while Sinn Féin garners 17%. This exit poll, released at 22:00 local time, was conducted by Ipsos B&A on behalf of RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin. It carries a margin of error of 1.4%. For comparison, in the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin achieved 24.53% of first preference votes, Fianna Fáil received 22.18%, and Fine Gael secured 20.86%. The poll conducted on Friday also shows first preference support for the Green Party at 4%; Labour at 5%; the Social Democrats at 5.8%; People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1%; Independents at 12.7%; Independent Ireland at 2.2%; and other parties collectively at 1.9%. This survey is based on 5,018 interviews completed directly after voters cast their ballots at polling stations across 43 constituencies throughout the Republic of Ireland. The findings from this poll precede the official vote counting, which is scheduled to commence at 09:00 local time on Saturday and is anticipated to extend through the weekend. A final result for some of the 43 constituencies might not be available until early next week. Elected candidates are referred to as Teachtaí Dála (TDs), with 174 seats needing to be filled; however, the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is automatically re-elected. Over 680 candidates vied for the remaining 173 seats. An overall majority necessitates 88 seats, yet no individual party has presented enough candidates to secure a majority independently. The inaugural session of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is set for 18 December, though it is improbable that coalition negotiations will be concluded by that date. The government will be formally established once the Dáil approves a vote to appoint a new taoiseach (Irish prime minister). There is limited expectation that the new government will be operational prior to 2025. Following the last general election in 2020, it took four months for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to finalize an agreement to establish the preceding Irish government. Sinn Féin emerged as the principal opposition party, and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have already dismissed them as a prospective coalition partner should a comparable result occur in this election. Alongside the three largest parties, the Dáil also includes several smaller parties and a substantial contingent of independent candidates. Historically, the political landscape in the Republic has been primarily controlled by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. These two parties originated from a division in nationalist sentiment concerning the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty. While Fianna Fáil was formerly perceived as more centrist and Fine Gael as more conservative, their distinctions have diminished, and both are currently regarded as centre-right parties. The current election represents the initial significant electoral challenge for Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach Simon Harris. He assumed the position in April, becoming the youngest individual to govern the Republic of Ireland at 37 years old, following the resignation of his predecessor, Leo Varadkar. Sinn Féin is an Irish republican and democratic socialist political party, serving as the primary opposition. Mary Lou McDonald assumed leadership of the party in 2018, and since then, the Dublin-based politician has endeavored to separate her party from critiques regarding its historical connections to IRA violence. In 2020, Sinn Féin achieved substantial advancements, leading the popular vote and securing 37 seats. Subsequently, it has grown to be the largest party across Northern Ireland’s local councils, its assembly, and at Westminster. Additional parties presenting candidates for this election comprise Labour, the Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, Aontú, and the recently established Independent Ireland. The exit poll indicates a gender disparity concerning first preference votes. Data reveals Sinn Féin received support from 22% of male voters and 20% of female voters. Fine Gael’s male voter share in the poll was 20%, whereas 22% of its voters were female. Fianna Fáil garnered 19% of male votes and 20% of female votes. Regarding vote transfers, 39% of Fianna Fáil’s second preferences were directed to a candidate from another party, while 30% went to a Fine Gael candidate. Approximately 5% of these transfers were for Sinn Féin. The survey additionally discovered that around 37% of Fine Gael transfers were directed to a second candidate, with 32% favoring a Fianna Fáil candidate. An analysis provided by Enda McClafferty, political editor for BBC News NI. While exit polls are not an exact science, they serve as a reliable gauge of voting patterns. In 2020, the poll accurately forecast a tight contest among Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, with merely three seats ultimately distinguishing the parties. Should this exit poll prove accurate, Sinn Féin would likely be content with its showing. Its performance places it marginally ahead of Fine Gael, though below the nearly 25% Sinn Féin achieved in 2020. The party commenced the election campaign following a series of detrimental controversies and unfavorable results in the European and local council elections in June, where it garnered only 12% of the vote. Throughout the three-week campaign, it succeeded in regaining lost support by pledging to deliver change. However, fulfilling that commitment might prove difficult if the exit poll’s projections are correct. The poll indicates that Fine Gael, with 21%, and Fianna Fáil, with 19.5%, could potentially form the next government, aided by two smaller parties and several independent candidates. Conversely, Sinn Féin’s route to power appears more arduous; despite its ambition to head a coalition of left-leaning parties, it might face difficulty in securing sufficient numbers given the performance of those smaller parties. Nevertheless, the complete electoral outcome will only become apparent once all results have been tallied. Previously, Fine Gael leader Simon Harris was the initial major party leader to cast his vote. Harris, accompanied by his family, went to Delgany National School in County Wicklow soon after polling stations commenced operations at 07:00 local time. Micheál Martin, the tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) and leader of Fianna Fáil, voted alongside his family at St Anthony’s Boys National School in Ballinlough, County Cork. Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin cast her ballot at Deaf Village Ireland on the Navan Road in Dublin. The situation was somewhat unique for Holly Cairns, leader of the Social Democrats, who gave birth on the day of the election. In other locations, officials made special efforts to accommodate island residents on election day. Presiding Officer Caroline Sharkey and Garda (Irish police officer) Ronan Steede traveled by boat to Gola Island, situated off the County Donegal coast in the west of Ireland, enabling 31 registered voters to cast their ballots in an islander’s living room. Election results will be broadcast on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and during Sunday Politics on BBC One NI at 10:00 GMT. The BBC News NI website plans to feature a live page providing continuous updates throughout the weekend. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC disclaims responsibility for the content of external websites. Information regarding our external linking policy is available.