Implications of Donald Trump’s Victory for the UK

Donald Trump’s electoral success presents a complex situation for the United Kingdom, primarily due to the president-elect’s significant unpredictability. Globally, the question “what will he say or do next” is expected to be a recurring one for the upcoming four years. Currently, foreign ministries worldwide, including the one in London, are transitioning their hypothetical strategies for this situation into concrete plans. While preparations have been completed, their ultimate impact might be limited. The dynamic between Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer from north London, and Donald Trump, the outspoken New York billionaire, raises questions. Initial indications regarding their personal compatibility do not appear immediately favorable. Furthermore, the potential involvement of another prominent billionaire, Elon Musk, within a Trump administration is being considered, particularly following his recent provocations directed at the Labour government on X. This suggests that relations with Washington are likely to experience considerable volatility. This scenario echoes previous experiences, as was noted last week in a reflection on Theresa May’s tenure as prime minister during Donald Trump’s initial term. Within the current government, two recent diplomatic achievements involving Trump’s team are being emphasized. The first success involves a dinner attended by the prime minister and Foreign Secretary David Lammy with the president-elect at Trump Tower in New York during September. According to sources, Trump adjusted his schedule to accommodate a meeting with Starmer and Lammy, an action perceived as a “good gesture” towards the incoming president. Secondly, the prime minister secured an early telephone conversation with Donald Trump soon after Trump survived an assassination attempt. These two opportunities for dialogue with Trump are attributed to a notable diplomatic initiative by the British Embassy in Washington, under the leadership of Ambassador Dame Karen Pierce. Individuals close to the foreign secretary report that he has also dedicated months, even prior to the election, to cultivating an understanding of Donald Trump and his associates. During a visit to Washington DC in May, he highlighted in a speech that this marked his seventh trip to the US capital within three and a half years. He informed an audience at the Hudson Institute, “I’ve been to the United States more times than I’ve been to France. I’ve lived in America, I’ve studied in America, I’ve got family in America. My father is buried in Texas.” He characterized Trump as “often misunderstood,” referred to Vice President Elect JD Vance as “my friend,” and stated, “I totally get the agenda…that drives America First,” which alludes to the phrase Trump employed in his Inauguration Speech in January 2017 to articulate that “every decision…will be made to benefit American workers and American families.” This represents a considerable effort at engagement and an attempt to demonstrate comprehension of Donald Trump and his achievements, particularly from an individual who previously labeled him a “tyrant in a toupee.” Nevertheless, privately there is an acknowledgment that the path forward is unlikely to be straightforward. An illustration of this is the recent controversy concerning alleged interference by the Labour Party in the US election, following an ill-advised social media post from a Labour staff member. One former diplomat commented, “It just shows you he doesn’t give a stuff about his relationship with the UK.” Therefore, the expectation is for a relationship characterized by turbulence, contention, and a transactional approach, focusing on identifying areas for agreements with Trump, who highly values his reputation as a deal maker. Consequently, Lammy has already endeavored to articulate an interpretation of Donald Trump’s fundamental inclinations. This includes the recognition that Europe must contribute more to its own defense funding. It also encompasses the understanding that America’s focus is increasingly directed towards Asia, particularly because, as Lammy stated, “the Chinese navy is now the largest in the world and Chinese shipbuilding capacity 230 times larger than the United States.” Furthermore, there is an understanding that, frankly, Europe prioritizes Ukraine more than the United States does. A Whitehall source articulated this perspective by stating, “We want America to support Kyiv as much as it can, but the differences between the Republicans and the Democrats shouldn’t be exaggerated.” However, this holds true only to a certain extent; significant anxieties are anticipated in European capitals and elsewhere that this outcome could jeopardize Ukraine. These concerns are compounded by the potential for elevated import taxes, or tariffs, in addition to frequent verbal outbursts on social media. Consequently, efforts to mitigate the challenges of this period have progressed rapidly: the foreign secretary recently held a meeting with Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former Secretary of State. The government has also been fostering connections with Robert O’Brien, who served as national security adviser during Donald Trump’s first term, and Elbridge Colby, whom some consider a potential candidate for his next national security adviser. However, the true efficacy of this preparatory work is soon to be determined. A second Trump term is commencing, and global attention will be fixed upon it. Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondent, offers insights into the presidential election campaign in his twice-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers within the UK can subscribe here, while those outside the UK can sign up here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.