Holyrood’s Legislative Challenges: Prospects for Major Reforms Amidst Political Deadlock

This past week has been largely focused on budgetary discussions and the impact financial resources can have on a government. However, political influence has also been significant, as the Scottish government has abandoned some major justice reforms, and its plans for a National Care Service appear increasingly uncertain. The repercussions of Humza Yousaf’s decision to terminate the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens, which led to the end of his own premiership, persist. John Swinney is acutely aware that his administration lacks a majority in the Holyrood chamber. Given this situation, which is now affecting the legislation they aim to enact, what are the chances of any significant reforms successfully navigating parliament before the upcoming election? It was announced this week that extensive reforms to the justice system would be scaled back, following Justice Secretary Angela Constance’s admission that there was “not enough cross-party support” for them. Proposals for judge-only rape trials were withdrawn, alongside a suggestion to reduce jury sizes. What remains is primarily the proposal to abolish the Not Proven verdict, a plan originated by Nicola Sturgeon’s government in 2022. The National Care Service, one of the most substantial legacy projects from the Sturgeon era, seems increasingly imperiled after the Greens joined other opposition parties in rejecting its current proposed form. The legislation intended to establish the service could become stalled at the committee stage, with little likelihood of ministers introducing amendments that would satisfy any party. Even if the bill were to pass, the entities crucial for the system’s operation—such as councils, health boards, and staff unions—have also expressed opposition. Finance Secretary Shona Robison had previously reduced several government commitments due to budgetary pressures. This resulted in the reintroduction of peak rail fares, the elimination of free bus travel for asylum seekers, and a decision to align with Westminster in means-testing winter fuel payments. These financial cutbacks followed Mr. Yousaf’s administration having discarded numerous more contentious policies. Highly Protected Marine Areas were reduced in scope, the Deposit Return Scheme was postponed indefinitely, and efforts to defend Sturgeon-era gender reforms through the courts were abandoned. Mr. Swinney has adopted a similar approach by advocating for a UK-wide strategy on banning conversion therapy, with the hope that Sir Keir Starmer will bear the brunt of any ensuing culture wars, rather than Mr. Swinney leading the initiative as Ms. Sturgeon did with self-identification. So, what legislative initiatives remain? Several bills are currently before Holyrood, but they largely operate within less controversial areas. Significant education reforms are progressing through parliament, involving the replacement of the SQA and Education Scotland, though these are now familiar proposals, having first been announced in 2021. Questions also persist regarding the ultimate appearance of the new system, as ministers opted for a less radical approach to exams than advisers had suggested. The Housing Bill, which aims to introduce a new system of rent controls, is also on the agenda. However, it too faces criticism for being overly cautious; the Greens argue the rent controls do not go far enough, and Labour contends the bill will not result in the construction of a single new house. MSPs are poised to pass a bill establishing a new system of climate targets, but this development stems solely from the failure to achieve the previous targets. Additionally, there is the Land Reform Bill, which was announced in the 2021 program for government and has been slowly advancing through various consultation phases. Land reform campaigner Andy Wightman, a former MSP, has characterized it as “the least ambitious land reform bill ever introduced to the Scottish Parliament.” Potentially the most contentious measure before parliament is the proposal for assisted dying for terminally-ill adults, which was tabled by Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur. It remains uncertain how senior government members will vote on this issue. When it comes to politically sensitive matters, Holyrood is undeniably gridlocked. Russell Findlay is repositioning the Conservatives to a stance that is, if anything, even more opposed to the SNP’s big-government philosophy. Labour is eager to secure power for itself. The Greens are still feeling the sting of recent events, and the Lib Dems are anticipating a recovery in the next election. With that election now on the horizon, there is little incentive for parties to foster cooperation. Furthermore, limited time remains for the government to introduce a transformative new proposal and guide it through parliament. Mr. Swinney’s program for government acknowledged this stark political reality by proposing very few new legislative ideas. There are some notable proposals, such as a bill to criminalize misogyny, but these represent the culmination of work that has been underway for years. The misogyny bill is based on a review published in March 2022, and its proposals are expected to garner broad support in parliament. The first minister’s primary objective is the eradication of child poverty, but no significant new reforms are planned; instead, the Swinney strategy appears to involve integrating existing services and policies more efficiently. Financial pressures have eased somewhat, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves pledging an additional £3.4bn for Holyrood next year. Nevertheless, the current political climate dictates that almost all of the government’s negotiation efforts will be directed towards passing its own budget. Discussions will be held with all parties, but specific overtures are being made to the Greens in an attempt to finalize a deal. There might be an opportunity, using these additional funds from the Treasury, to reinstate some of the Greens’ favored projects and persuade them to at least abstain. However, beyond that budget bill, it is increasingly difficult to envision MSPs in a partisan parliament, led by a government entering its 18th year in power, reaching agreement on anything substantial.