Harris’s Electoral Prospects Tied to Female Voters

In pivotal states such as Arizona and Michigan, young women are participating in early voting. Kamala Harris is relying on their participation to sway the election in her favor. On an unusually mild autumn morning at the University of Michigan’s Ann Arbor campus, numerous students queued to cast their ballots at the institution’s early voting facility. Among those present was Keely Ganong, a third-year student who expressed enthusiasm for voting for Harris. “She’s just a leader that I would to look up to to represent my country,” she stated. Her friend, Lola Nordlinger, commented, “Gender equality is on the forefront of the issues,” referring to abortion rights. She added, “A woman’s choice is something that’s so personal to her, and it really should be no one else’s decision.” Ms. Ganong noted that voting is a prevalent topic of discussion across campus, with election day less than a week away. The 20-year-old asserted, “Student voices are definitely going to make a difference” in the election. Adrianna Pete, a 24-year-old who was volunteering on campus to educate students about the democratic process, concurred, saying, “I feel like a lot of women are rising up.” These young women largely represent typical Harris supporters. A recent survey conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics indicates that Harris holds a substantial 30-point lead among women aged 18-29. Specifically among college students, regardless of gender, she leads by 38 points, as revealed by a recent Inside Higher Ed/Generation Lab survey. With polls showing tight races both nationally and in key states like Michigan, Harris will depend on a high turnout from these young women to secure an electoral victory. This sentiment is well understood by Hannah Brocks, 20, who last week waited in a lengthy queue to attend a well-attended Harris and Walz rally held in a local park in Ann Arbor. She has been active in her school’s young Democrats club, engaging in door-to-door canvassing, distributing flyers, and making phone calls to encourage votes for Harris. “I just like the way she talks about people in general,” Ms. Brocks remarked. “It’s just so much love and empathy in the way she talks about other people.” This advantage among young women could be further enhanced if voter turnout in this election mirrors the patterns of 2020, when approximately 10 million more women cast ballots than men, according to the Center for American Women in Politics. Early voting exit polls suggest a comparable demographic split this cycle, with roughly 55% women and 45% men, according to a Politico analysis; however, analysts caution that the voting preferences of these women are unknown. Yet, despite considerable focus on this election being framed as a contest between genders, the reality is considerably more intricate. The same Harvard poll indicated Harris’s lead among white women under 30 was 13 points over Trump, in contrast to a 55-point lead among non-white women under 30. When white women of all age groups are polled, Harris’s lead virtually disappears. This pattern could be recurring – in 2016, more white women supported Trump than Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump’s lead with white women expanded. Democrats generally have encountered particular difficulties with white, non-college educated voters, both male and female. For Harris to win, she will need not only strong turnout among her young female supporters but also to persuade some women who do not fit that demographic. “The best avatar for a voter writ large is a woman in a swing state who didn’t go to college,” states pollster Evan Roth Smith of Blueprint, a Democratic public opinion research firm. While these women tend to place more trust in the Republican Party on matters such as immigration and the economy, Mr. Smith suggests that abortion could be the issue that sways them toward Harris. The vice-president has pledged to reinstate abortion rights, whereas Trump has claimed responsibility for the Supreme Court’s decision to revoke Roe v. Wade, which previously guaranteed women a national right to abortion. Women attending a Harris rally in the battleground state of Arizona informed the BBC that the stakes this year feel particularly high. The state features a ballot measure that would enable voters to determine whether the right to abortion should be enshrined in the state’s constitution. Currently, abortion is prohibited after 15 weeks, with limited exceptions. Mary Jelkovsky expresses optimism that the presence of abortion on the ballot in Arizona could contribute to a Democratic surge. Wearing a bright blue sweatshirt emblazoned with “vote with your vag,” the 26-year-old informed the BBC that she and her husband have begun trying to conceive. She finds the notion that pregnancy could now be compelled upon someone, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, difficult to comprehend. Ms. Jelkovsky noted that the Supreme Court’s ruling initiated significant discussions with her friends and family. She revealed that she discovered several loved ones had undergone abortions, including one for a life-saving reason. “It’s personal but it’s so important to have these conversations,” she remarked. “For us [women], this election couldn’t be more important.” The Harris campaign anticipates that the abortion issue will not only motivate Democrats to vote but also convince Republican women to switch their allegiance. These “silent” Harris voters, as political analysts refer to them, could potentially enhance her numbers in especially close contests. Arizonian Rebecca Gau, 53, was a lifelong Republican until Trump’s presidential candidacy. When she cast her ballot for Joe Biden in 2020, she described it as a protest vote. However, this election cycle, she expresses excitement about voting for Harris. “I felt like she could represent me as a practical American woman,” she conveyed to the BBC earlier in October. She stated her weariness of “toxic masculinity” and believes that other Republican women, like herself, share this sentiment. “I don’t care what the political persuasion is – women are fed up,” she declared. However, not all Republican women are persuaded. Tracey Sorrel, a Texan who is a member of the BBC’s Voter Panel, indicated her belief that Harris would extend abortion rights too far. Ultimately, despite her dislike for some of his statements, Ms. Sorrel affirmed she will vote for Trump. “I’m not voting personality. I’m voting policy. I don’t have to marry the man,” she stated. With additional contributions from Robin Levinson King and Rachel Looker. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.