Guernsey Businesses Report Decreased Economic Confidence

According to the Institute of Directors (IoD) Guernsey, its most recent survey indicated a “fall in confidence” during the period from May to November 2024. The economic confidence survey revealed that business leaders held “quite pessimistic” views regarding the island’s economy for the upcoming 12 months. A net positive confidence reading of -25% for the local economy was reported in the survey, which represents a decrease from the -18% recorded in May 2024. The IoD further noted that this percentage was “considerably higher” than that of the UK, which registered -58%. The IoD stated, “Respondents on balance expect their revenue over the next 12 months to be higher with a net positive percentage reading of +32%.” Richard Hemans, the economic lead for the IoD Guernsey branch, commented that the findings indicated confidence had “deteriorated with optimism about the Guernsey economy and profit expectations both falling.” He explained, “The survey was completed against the backdrop of the structural fiscal deficit and uncertainty over how it will be filled, stubborn inflation, the ongoing housing shortage and well-publicised difficulties with air and sea links.” Mr. Hemans further noted, “However, reflecting the results of our first survey, respondents remain confident about the prospects of their own organisations.” He continued, “Results show that they expect costs to increase at a slower rate and plans to increase employment are in place, which is positive.” He mentioned that this data, along with recent research on social capital, would inform the IoD’s future initiatives. The complete survey findings are accessible on the IoD’s website. The subsequent Directors’ Economic Confidence Survey is scheduled for May 2025.