Global Perspectives on Donald Trump’s Election Victory

Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House has garnered international attention. His “America First” foreign policy, as it is known, might lead to a reduction of US engagement in global conflict zones. Five BBC correspondents offer their evaluations of the potential impact in their respective regions. From James Waterhouse, Ukraine correspondent, Kyiv: “Do not try to predict Trump’s actions. No one knows how he is going to act.” These remarks from a Ukrainian MP highlight the political predicament confronting Kyiv. A Trump triumph was broadly anticipated with apprehension in this location, due to concerns about its implications for future US assistance. The Republican previously pledged to conclude the conflict within a day and has consistently voiced disapproval of US military support for Ukraine. Currently, his potential actions are uncertain. A front-line soldier states, “He could ask Putin to freeze this war, and he says ‘OK’.” The soldier adds, “It’s the worst scenario because in a couple of years the Russians will advance again and might destroy us.” “The second scenario is if Putin refuses,” the soldier continues. “There is a chance Trump will react radically. That is a more promising scenario.” Ukraine’s expectation is that this would entail the US increasing its military assistance further, given the possibility of a Ukrainian defeat. Individuals near the front lines, weary of Russian aggression, perceive Trump as a potential path to relief. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, whom Trump once called “the greatest salesman in history,” promptly extended congratulations. He emphasized the political and economic prospects a collaboration could offer and seeks to maintain the ability to continue fighting in exchange. An additional factor is present. Trump will need to evaluate not only continued military aid for Ukraine but also the manner and extent of his response to North Korea’s increasing participation in Russia’s invasion. From Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor, Sochi: One might anticipate the Kremlin to be elated by Trump’s recapture of the White House. During his campaign, he notably refrained from criticizing Vladimir Putin. In contrast, Kamala Harris referred to the Russian president as “a murderous dictator.” Trump had also expressed doubts regarding the extent of US military aid to Kyiv. Nevertheless, the Kremlin is publicly making considerable efforts to convey an impression of disinterest in a Trump victory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, “I’m not aware of any plans [for President Putin] to congratulate Trump.” He added, “Don’t forget that [America] is an ‘unfriendly country’ which is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.” The subdued expectations stem from the outcome of Trump’s initial term: the Kremlin had harbored significant hopes that a Trump presidency would revolutionize US-Russian relations, which did not materialize. Despite this, at the political discussion club I am currently attending in the mountains overlooking Sochi, prominent Russian political scientists appear to be anticipating “Trump the sequel.” A commentator informed me of his belief that under Trump, the US will “retreat” from its position as a global superpower. Another proposed that the US election aligned with the Kremlin’s “overall vision of the world,” where “liberal globalism has depleted its efficiency.” From Paul Kirby, Europe digital editor: As numerous European leaders from within and outside the EU convene in Budapest on Thursday, right-leaning figures will commemorate Donald Trump’s election triumph, while others will ponder future developments. Viktor Orban, Hungary’s host and an ally of Trump, was the first to post his joyful message on Facebook: “It’s in the bag!” However, for numerous other EU leaders, a second Trump administration could indicate forthcoming challenges concerning security, trade, and climate change. Shortly after extending congratulations to the Republican candidate, France’s Emmanuel Macron announced an agreement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to strive for a “more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock provided insight into this context. Having recently returned from Ukraine, she stated that Europeans must now “think big and make investments in our European security big,” with the US serving as a partner. Her Polish and Nato counterpart, Radoslaw Sikorski, reported having communicated with Trump’s senior team and concurred that “Europe must urgently take greater responsibility for its security.” The possibility of substantial US tariffs on EU imports also presents a significant concern. EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Trump but offered a pertinent reminder that “millions of jobs and billions in trade” depended on their transatlantic relationship. From Lucy Williamson, Middle East correspondent, Jerusalem: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, was among the initial figures to congratulate Trump and has previously referred to him as Israel’s greatest friend ever in the White House. Trump had previously gained approval in this region by canceling a US nuclear agreement with Iran, which Israel opposed. He also reversed long-standing US policy by acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, states that Trump’s initial term in office was “exemplary” from Israel’s perspective. However, he cautions: “We have to be very clear-sighted about who Donald Trump is and what he stands for.” Mr Oren observes that the former president views wars as costly, and Trump has pressed Israel to conclude the conflict in Gaza swiftly. “If Donald Trump comes into office in January and says, ‘okay, you have a week to finish this war’, Netanyahu is going to have to respect that.” In Gaza, where the Israeli military has been engaged in conflict with the Palestinian group Hamas, the dire situation has concentrated the attention of some inhabitants. Ahmed, who lost both his wife and son when their home was demolished, remarks that Trump “has some strong promises.” He adds, “We hope he can help, and bring peace.” Mamdouh, another displaced resident, expressed indifference regarding the outcome of the US election, stating he merely desired assistance. From Laura Bicker, China correspondent, Beijing: China is preparing for Donald Trump’s return, with concerns that his presidency could initiate a new trade conflict. During his previous term as president, Trump levied tariffs on Chinese imports exceeding $300 billion. For this upcoming period, he has indicated that tariffs might surpass 60%. Beijing will not remain passive; it intends to retaliate. However, China’s economy is already experiencing difficulties, and it will not be inclined towards a second prolonged trade war. Trump’s erratic policies and inflammatory statements also pose a challenge for Chinese leaders, who favor stability. Nevertheless, within the struggle for power and influence, certain analysts identify an opening for Beijing. The Biden administration has dedicated the past four years to cultivating alliances throughout Asia with nations such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, all as part of an endeavor to curb China’s influence. Trump’s “America first” doctrine has previously led to the isolation and weakening of these US alliances. He favors pursuing deals over nuanced diplomacy and frequently assigns a monetary value to America’s partnerships. In 2018, he requested additional funds from South Korea for the continued stationing of US troops within the nation. It is clear that China aims to contest the US-led global order. Beijing has already established partnerships with developing economies throughout the “Global South.” Should Washington’s influence diminish in Asia and globally, this could represent a victory for President Xi. Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondent, analyzes the presidential contest in his bi-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. UK readers can subscribe here, while those outside the UK can subscribe here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content of external websites. Information regarding our policy on external linking is available.