Ghana Becomes Fifth African Nation This Year to See Opposition Win, Setting New Record

Ghana’s Vice-President, Mahamudu Bawumia, acknowledged his defeat in Saturday’s elections, extending congratulations to opposition leader and former President John Mahama for his win. Initial results indicate this outcome may represent one of the most significant losses in decades for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), which has governed since 2016. Citizen discontent stemmed from several factors: an escalating cost of living, multiple prominent scandals, and a substantial debt crisis that hindered the government’s ability to fulfill crucial commitments. Consequently, the NPP’s share of the presidential vote might have fallen below 45% for the first time since 1996. The election in Ghana concludes a notable 12-month period in African politics, during which five power transitions have occurred, surpassing all previous records. This “annus horribilis” for incumbent governments has additionally led to opposition triumphs in Botswana, Mauritius, Senegal, and the self-declared republic of Somaliland. Furthermore, beyond these specific outcomes, nearly every election conducted in the region this year under reasonably democratic circumstances has resulted in the incumbent party losing a considerable number of seats. This pattern has been influenced by a convergence of factors: The trend is anticipated to persist into 2025, potentially creating challenges for leaders like Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera, as his nation is scheduled for elections in September. A particularly notable characteristic of the elections held in 2024 is that numerous governments, which previously seemed to hold firm control, have suffered overwhelming defeats. This includes nations that had no prior history of leadership change. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had governed the nation since its independence in 1966, experienced a decisive defeat in October’s general elections. In addition to losing power, the BDP’s representation in the 69-member parliament plummeted from 38 seats to near elimination. Having secured only four seats, the BDP is currently among the smallest parties in parliament and confronts a significant struggle to maintain political relevance. Mauritius also witnessed an overwhelming defeat for its ruling party in November, where the Alliance Lepep coalition, led by Pravind Jagnauth of the Militant Socialist Movement, garnered only 27% of the vote and saw its parliamentary seats reduced to merely two. Given that its competitor, Alliance du Changement, secured 60 of the 66 available seats, Mauritius has undergone one of the most comprehensive political shifts conceivable. Opposition victories were also recorded in Senegal and the self-declared republic of Somaliland. Senegal’s political reversal proved as remarkable as Botswana’s, though distinct in its nature. Weeks before the election, key opposition figures Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko were imprisoned, as President Macky Sall’s government misused its authority in a frantic attempt to prevent a loss. Following increasing domestic and international pressure that resulted in Faye and Sonko’s release, Faye proceeded to secure the presidency in the initial round of voting, while the government’s candidate obtained only 36% of the vote. Even in instances where governments avoided defeat, their standing and political authority have been significantly undermined. South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) maintained power, but only subsequent to an arduous campaign that resulted in its vote share dropping below 50% in a national election for the first time since the conclusion of white-minority rule in 1994. This necessitated President Cyril Ramaphosa forming a coalition government, relinquishing 12 cabinet positions to other parties, including influential portfolios like home affairs. Namibia’s recent elections presented a comparable narrative. While the governing party retained power, the opposition has disputed the results, alleging significant manipulation of the poll following its disruption by logistical issues and irregularities. Despite these flaws, the government experienced setbacks in the parliamentary election, achieving its lowest-ever performance. It lost 12 of its 63 seats and barely maintained its parliamentary majority. Consequently, a region typically recognized for governments that retain power for extended periods has witnessed 12 months of dynamic, fiercely contested, multiparty politics. The sole exceptions to this pattern have been nations where elections were deemed neither free nor fair, such as Chad and Rwanda, or where governments faced accusations from opposition and rights organizations of employing a mix of rigging and repression to avoid defeat, as observed in Mozambique. Three converging trends have rendered this a particularly challenging year for incumbent governments. In Botswana, Mauritius, and Senegal, increasing public apprehension regarding corruption and the misuse of power diminished governmental credibility. Opposition leaders subsequently capitalized on widespread anger concerning nepotism, economic mismanagement, and leaders’ failure to uphold the rule of law, thereby broadening their support. Particularly in Mauritius and Senegal, the ruling party also compromised its assertion of being a government dedicated to upholding political rights and civil liberties. This constituted a perilous error in nations where the vast majority of citizens are committed to democracy and which have previously experienced opposition triumphs. The belief that governments were mismanaging the economy held particular significance, as many individuals faced financial hardship throughout the year. Elevated food and fuel prices have raised the cost of living for millions of citizens, intensifying their dissatisfaction with the current situation. Beyond contributing to some of this year’s governmental defeats, economic resentment served as the primary catalyst for the youth-led protests in Kenya that destabilized President William Ruto’s government in July and August. This trend is, naturally, not exclusive to Africa but rather a global occurrence. Public dissatisfaction regarding inflation contributed to the defeat of Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party in the UK, as well as the victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the United States. What distinguished the power transitions in Africa this year, however, was the manner in which opposition parties drew lessons from previous experiences. In certain instances, like Mauritius, this involved devising novel methods to safeguard the vote by meticulously monitoring every phase of the electoral process. In other cases, it entailed forming new coalitions to offer the electorate a unified alternative. For example, in Botswana, three opposition parties and several independent candidates united under the Umbrella for Democratic Change to decisively surpass the BDP in mobilization efforts. A comparable array of trends is expected to pose significant challenges for leaders facing elections next year, including Malawi’s President Chakwera, who is also contending with escalating public discontent over the economic situation. Following the NPP’s defeat in Ghana, Africa has experienced five power transfers within 12 months. The prior record stood at four opposition victories, which took place in 2000. The fact that numerous governments are facing electoral setbacks amidst a global trend of democratic erosion, marked by an increase in authoritarianism in certain areas, is especially noteworthy. This indicates that Africa possesses considerably greater democratic resilience than is frequently acknowledged, despite the presence of numerous established authoritarian regimes. Civil society organizations, opposition parties, and citizens have collectively mobilized in significant numbers to demand accountability and penalize governments that have underperformed both economically and democratically. International governments, organizations, and activists seeking novel approaches to safeguard democracy globally should direct increased attention to a region frequently perceived as unfavorable for multiparty politics. This region has, nonetheless, demonstrated more instances of democratic resurgence than other parts of the world. This text is an updated rendition of an article initially released on 5 December 2024. Nic Cheeseman serves as the director for the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation at the University of Birmingham in the UK. Visit BBCAfrica.com for additional news from the African continent. Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa, or on Instagram at bbcafrica. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content of external websites. Information regarding our approach to external linking is available.