Georgia’s Critical Juncture: Protesters Advocate Western Alignment Over Russian Influence

Each evening, Georgians have occupied the wide central thoroughfare leading to parliament, in such substantial crowds that movement is severely restricted, both on the roadway and the adjacent sidewalks. Demonstrators gather on Rustaveli Avenue, displaying flags of the EU (blue and gold) and the George Cross (red and white), asserting that their progressively authoritarian government is abandoning Georgia’s European trajectory in favor of re-entering the influence of its Russian neighbor. The governing party, Georgian Dream, vehemently refutes any connection to the Kremlin; however, its recent conduct has generated significant doubts regarding the nation’s relationship with Western countries. The party has not only overseen a contentious disagreement with the EU, but it has also recently witnessed the US suspend Georgia’s diligently established strategic partnership. For a nation with a population of merely 3.7 million, these represent both perilous and pivotal times. A supporter of Georgian Dream described his country as teetering on the brink of an abyss. Throughout the night, the sounds of whistles and vuvuzelas are intermittently broken by the bursts of fireworks launched by protesters towards the formidable parliament structure and the riot police stationed there with water cannons and tear gas. During the initial four nights, law enforcement personnel delayed their intervention until closer to dawn before forcibly clearing the street. However, on Monday night, they advanced considerably sooner, displacing demonstrators to other areas. Police reported over 100 injuries among their officers, while detained protesters have suffered beatings and severe facial and head trauma, as stated by legal representatives, and numerous television journalists have been assaulted. “The scale of people being hunted down and beaten individually, so they have to be treated in clinics, has never been seen before here,” states Lasha Dzebisashvili, a politics professor at the University of Georgia. Levan Ioseliani, Georgia’s public rights defender, asserts that police have exhibited “brutality” and misused their power without consequence. Conversely, government proponents contend that police have faced unacceptable assaults involving stones and fireworks. This constitutes a constitutional crisis lacking a clear resolution, unless one party yields first. Will the government concede, or will the demonstrations diminish under police pressure? “No negotiations,” declares Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, asserting, without evidence, that the demonstrations receive foreign funding. A couple stated their intention to participate nightly in December until Georgian Dream alters its course and schedules new elections, aiming to nullify a vote from just over a month prior that was tainted by various irregularities, including bribery and plural voting. Each faction accuses the other of lacking legitimate authority. The demonstrators, encouraged by a symbolic pro-Western president and four opposition factions, contend the government is illegitimate; the opposition refuses to enter parliament due to the “falsified elections”. The governing party, Georgian Dream, maintains it secured the election legitimately and asserts that the predominantly ceremonial president, Salome Zourabichvili, lacks legitimacy. It questions why she, whose term is nearing its end, intends to remain in office to preserve stability. Meanwhile, neighboring Russia observes closely, drawing parallels between these events and Ukraine’s “Maidan,” where its unpopular president was removed by pro-EU demonstrators in February 2014, leading to Russian forces and their proxies seizing portions of the nation. “We’re losing our country,” states Nika Gvaramia, an opposition leader from the Coalition for Change alliance, adding that Georgians confront a clear decision between a European Georgia or Russia. While he speaks, the demonstrations are actively ongoing near his party’s headquarters, and his colleagues highlight a CCTV video from their lobby a few days prior, depicting a protester being assaulted by police. “We’re shaking this government. The rallies will go on for as long as needed. We have no other option. It’s a liberation fight. We know who we’re fighting with, and that’s Russia.” The phrase “No to Russia” was spray-painted in large black letters on the parliament building’s facade over the weekend, and similar messages appear on walls throughout Tbilisi with differing levels of directness. This message also conveys diverse interpretations locally. Georgian Dream’s contentious legislation introduced this year, aimed at civil society and LGBT groups, has been labeled both Russian-influenced and anti-democratic. The president has characterized Georgian Dream’s electoral victory as a Russian special operation, and public outrage followed the revelation that Alexander Malkevich, a Russian who established a propaganda network in occupied eastern Ukraine, had received accreditation to report on the election. Nevertheless, none of these points confirm Russian interference, despite the fact that Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire influential figure behind the party, amassed his wealth in banking and steel in Russia, and critics suspect he maintains connections there. A senior Georgian Dream official informed the BBC in October that Georgia had rejected Moscow long ago and that the “Russia card” was being employed by the opposition to undermine her party. “Knowing a little bit of Georgian history… no government would be that stupid to start thinking about that,” stated Maka Bochorishvili. Russia engaged in a conflict with Georgia merely 16 years prior. She has since assumed the role of Georgia’s foreign minister, representing the nation’s new diplomatic presence. The critical juncture for Georgia and its Western ties occurred last Thursday, when the prime minister announced that the government had “decided not to put the issue of opening negotiations with the European Union” on its agenda for the upcoming four years. Within a few hours, Russia’s Vladimir Putin capitalized on these remarks. “I admired their courage and character, which they showed when defending their point of view,” he commented, emphasizing that Russia maintained no direct ties with Tbilisi. Kobakhidze has even adopted rhetoric similar to the Kremlin’s, alleging that the opposition is orchestrating a Ukraine-style “Maidan” revolution. Nevertheless, his assertion was that Georgian police would prevent such an event from occurring. Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus expert at Carnegie Europe, considers it erroneous to perceive any genuine close friendship with Russia. “It’s a business relationship – there’s no diplomatic relationship. Things are going on behind the scenes but they’re more afraid of Russia than wanting to join Russia.” Irrespective of the scope of connections, Moscow is likely to favor Georgian Dream, which has, in a brief timeframe, damaged Georgia’s ties with the EU and US, over a fervently pro-Western opposition. The evening demonstrations currently exhibit no signs of diminishing, even as temperatures approach freezing, and no resolution appears imminent. Georgia has experienced prior protests, but none of this magnitude, according to Lasha Dzebisashvili. Government employees from various sectors have endorsed letters and petitions, and multiple ambassadors have stepped down, including Georgia’s ambassador to the US, representing a significant setback for the governing party. The extensive expanse of Rustaveli Avenue serves as the primary stage for these events before parliament in Tbilisi, yet the protests resonate in other towns and cities as well, such as Batumi and Poti on the Black Sea, Zugdidi in the north-west, and Kutaisi. On Sunday evening, a substantial gathering of demonstrators assembled outside the public broadcaster, calling for the president to receive airtime instead of the typical pro-government programming. This demand was not met, and the protesters progressively advanced towards the capital’s center, disrupting traffic and chanting “Georgia, Georgia”. Nika Gvaramia and his opposition counterparts contend that the evident solution lies in free and fair elections, conducted not by the current election commission but under the supervision of the EU and US: “If Georgian Dream is sure they won the elections, let’s go with new ones.” Such an outcome appears highly improbable, as it would necessitate an unspoken acknowledgment that the initial vote was unjust. Levan Gigineishvili, a Georgian Dream supporter and university lecturer, suggests they merely need to await a new US president: “I think a great way out of this will be [Donald] Trump coming to power and then everything will change.” However, 20 January is still distant, and this small Caucasus nation is unlikely to be a priority on his agenda. Furthermore, Georgia’s business community, for its part, will be dissatisfied with an ongoing deadlock or with the government causing enduring harm to Western relations.