General’s Assassination Disrupts Moscow’s Perceived Normality

In Moscow, a constant tension exists between outward appearances and underlying realities. Despite the conflict nearing its third year, daily life often seems routine, from the throngs of commuters on the Metro to the lively bars and clubs filled with young Muscovites. Yet, periodically, an event occurs that serves as a stark reminder: contemporary Russia is far from normal. Such an incident might be a Ukrainian drone penetrating Moscow’s air defenses, or, more dramatically, the targeted killing of a senior Russian general on Tuesday morning as he exited an apartment building. When Lt Gen Igor Kirillov and his assistant Ilya Polikarpov were killed by an explosive device hidden on an electric scooter, the tangible reality of Russia’s war on Ukraine became acutely apparent, at least for those Russians in close proximity to the crime scene. “It’s one thing reading about it in the news, it feels far, but when it happens next door to you, that’s completely different and frightening,” Liza, who lives one building from the blast site, stated. She added, “Until now, [the war] felt as if it was happening a long way off – now someone is dead, here, you can feel the consequences.” Liza also expressed, “My anxiety has gone through the roof. Every sound you hear unnerves you – you wonder whether it’s a drone or something at a construction site.” This perception of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine as a distant event is frequently encountered here. It appears that for a considerable segment of the population, this is a war primarily experienced through television screens or smartphones, making it, in many respects, a virtual conflict. This is quite remarkable, given the substantial number of casualties. However, the assassination of a Russian general in Moscow serves as an undeniable wake-up call, providing proof that this war is very real and geographically close. Will this event prompt a policy shift from the Russian authorities? Probably not. There is little indication of a Kremlin reversal on Ukraine. Moscow is far more likely to intensify the war, as current signs suggest. In response to the news of Kirillov’s killing, the host of a political talk show on Russian state TV blamed Ukraine and asserted that “with this attack President Zelensky has signed his own death sentence.” Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that “investigators must find the killers in Russia,” adding, “We must do everything to destroy their patrons who are in Kyiv.” Russia’s security service has reported that a 29-year-old man from Uzbekistan has now been detained in connection with the killings. President Vladimir Putin has not yet issued a public statement regarding the assassinations of the general and his assistant. However, the Kremlin leader has repeatedly affirmed in the past that, when faced with security threats, Russia “will always respond.” Based on that pledge, retaliatory actions are anticipated. On Thursday, the Kremlin leader is scheduled to hold his annual end-of-year press conference and phone-in. This event is typically a lengthy affair broadcast live by all major television channels. A question arises: will he use this occasion to comment on the dramatic early morning assassination of Kirillov? Will he break his silence on Syria? The Russian president has so far made no public statements regarding the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s key ally in the Middle East. And what message will he convey to Russians about the nation’s future, as the war in Ukraine – which Putin still refers to as his “special military operation” – approaches its three-year mark?