François Bayrou Appointed Amidst French Government Crisis: Challenges Ahead

President Macron has appointed François Bayrou, a fellow centrist and highly experienced politician, to address France’s governmental crisis. While Bayrou is widely respected across the political spectrum, it remains unclear how he will navigate the challenges that led to the downfall of his predecessor, Michel Barnier. Although the president appoints the prime minister as per constitutional requirements, the prime minister’s ability to govern relies on parliamentary support. Given that the National Assembly has been deadlocked by a three-bloc impasse since July, with no prospect of resolution before July 2025, predicting any significant success for Bayrou would be premature. Following Barnier’s removal a week prior, due to a vote of no confidence backed by both the left and populist right, President Macron engaged in consultations with various leaders. His aim was to establish a new informal coalition to govern France. As Barnier belonged to the traditional right, Macron initially sought support from the traditional left, specifically attempting to separate the Socialist Party (PS) from its alliance with the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI). Nevertheless, the Socialist Party’s condition for cooperation involved the implementation of left-wing policies, which Macron was not prepared to endorse. Consequently, he had to narrow his search for a prime minister to individuals within his close associates. Bayrou has maintained a close alliance with President Macron since before Macron’s initial significant electoral victory in 2017. Bayrou’s choice to withdraw his candidacy that year and endorse Macron was a crucial factor in Macron’s campaign momentum. Bayrou, aged 73, has been a prominent political figure for over 40 years. He has led the Modem party, which currently holds 36 deputies, since its establishment in 2007. Prior to this, he headed other centrist political groups. His political career began within the Christian Democrat tradition of post-war politics. This tradition generally offered support to, but maintained a degree of separation from, the larger Gaullist faction of the French right, which Jacques Chirac led starting in the late 1970s. Bayrou, who taught classical languages in his twenties, held the position of education minister from 1993 to 1997. This marked his most recent substantial governmental experience. In 2017, he briefly served as Macron’s justice minister but resigned following accusations in a party funding scandal. Although he was ultimately acquitted of the charges, numerous colleagues were convicted. Prosecutors have since appealed his acquittal, indicating the possibility of him returning to court. Bayrou, an observant Catholic and father of six, has his political stronghold in Pau, a Pyrenean city where he has served as mayor since 2014. He is fluent in the local Bearnese language and advocates strongly for decentralisation. Bayrou has contested the presidency three times, representing the centrist platform. His closest bid for victory was in 2007, where he placed third with almost 19% of the vote. He subsequently drew the ire of the eventual winner, Nicolas Sarkozy, by endorsing the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal. In a scenario where a minority government’s survival depends on fostering cooperation across the political left and right, Bayrou possesses the benefit of having reasonably good relationships with both factions. His support for Ségolène Royal and later François Hollande in 2012 has cultivated a degree of trust among Socialists. Conversely, his stance on national debt, particularly the imperative to reduce it, garners him favor with the right. Notably, his relationship with Marine Le Pen of the populist right is also characterized by respect. Previously, he assisted her in gathering the necessary sponsorships to run for the presidency, asserting that denying the leader of the most popular party the right to stand would be an affront to democracy. Analogous reasoning prompted his support for Le Pen when the prosecutor in her party funding trial—a case resembling his own—recently sought to have her declared ineligible for public office. This could potentially allow Bayrou to avoid an automatic vote of no confidence from the populist right. However, Le Pen’s National Rally has also issued a warning, stating that if the new prime minister is perceived as “Barnier with another face,” they will not hesitate to seek his removal. Alain Duhamel, a seasoned French political commentator, describes Bayrou as an independent and highly experienced individual. Duhamel suggests that despite his alliance with Macron, Bayrou will not shy away from exercising his authority at Hotel Matignon, his official residence. Duhamel stated, “He will not be easily disciplined,” adding, “And he will tilt policy more towards the left.” France’s governmental crisis, considered the most severe in the Fifth Republic, has resulted in a significant redistribution of power, moving it from the Elysée to the prime minister and parliament. Constitutional expert Christophe Boutin remarked, “The last time we had a situation like this was the (post-war) Fourth Republic when presidents had very little power.” Boutin further commented, “Today again, power rests with the groups in parliament who may or may not come together on certain shared policies.” Bayrou’s immediate priority involves forming a new government, a process that could extend over several days. The makeup of this government will reveal his success in establishing connections with Socialists on one hand and Barnier’s conservatives on the other. However, he will swiftly need to prepare a new 2025 budget to supersede the one discarded by the Barnier administration. He will also immediately confront potential resistance from both the left and the far-right. President Macron has endorsed the concept, proposed by some parliamentarians, of a non-aggression pact. This pact would involve the government committing not to enact laws without a vote, and Members of Parliament pledging not to initiate a motion of censure. Macron also stated his intention not to dissolve the Assembly again before his term concludes in 2027. Nevertheless, critics contend that such an agreement would foster inaction, making consensus improbable on critical matters like reducing the nation’s escalating debt. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not accountable for the content found on external sites. Details on their external linking policy are available.