Fianna Fáil Emerges as Leading Party in Irish Election

Following the Republic of Ireland’s general election, Fianna Fáil secured the highest number of seats in the Dáil, the lower house of parliament. The party obtained 48 seats. Sinn Féin, which served as the primary opposition in the previous Dáil, gained 39 seats. Fine Gael, a coalition partner with Fianna Fáil since 2020, finished third with 38 seats. While Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael appear to be in the strongest position to establish a new government, Sinn Féin maintains its intention to participate in coalition discussions. The election saw candidates contest 174 seats in the Dáil, with a majority requiring 88 seats. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael collectively hold 86 seats. The first preference percentage shares for the three leading parties were: Fianna Fáil at 21.9%, Fine Gael at 20.8%, and Sinn Féin at 19.0%. The election recorded a voter turnout of 59.7%, marking the lowest turnout in over a hundred years. On Monday, Jack Chambers, Fianna Fáil’s deputy leader, informed RTE’s Morning Ireland that he did not anticipate the formation of a new government prior to Christmas. However, he also stated that he did not foresee negotiations extending for five months, as they did previously. The Green Party, which served as the junior coalition partner to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, experienced a disappointing election outcome, seeing its representation decrease from 12 seats to a single seat. For Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to return to government, several options are available. These include forming an agreement with Labour or the Social Democrats, both of which secured 11 seats, or attempting to reach a deal with Independent Ireland, a right-wing party holding four seats. An additional possibility involves collaborating with a selection of the 16 independent politicians, the two Aontú TDs (MPs), or the sole TD from the 100% Redress Party. Fianna Fáil leader Michéal Martin is considered the leading candidate to become the next taoiseach (Irish prime minister). Given that political discussions are expected to last for weeks, potentially months, no outcome can be excluded at this point. Labour TD Marie Sherlock stated that her party would not enter government solely with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael without the inclusion of other smaller parties. Sherlock informed RTÉ, “There is no circumstance that I can envisage that the Labour Party will be going into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. We can only form a basis for negotiation if we’re with other small parties.” Eoin Ó Broin, Sinn Féin TD for Dublin Mid West, indicated his party’s eagerness to engage in discussions with other “progressive parties.” He stressed that “no deal has been done yet.” Ó Broin commented, “Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael clearly would prefer to go in with each other, despite the cost that it’ll have for the general population but they haven’t formed a government yet.” He added, “It’s incumbent on us to meet with other likeminded parties to see how we can ensure that those really urgent pressing issues for people, housing, healthcare, cost of living, remain at the centre of the agenda.” Chambers, re-elected in the Dublin West constituency, affirmed that his party’s stance regarding Sinn Féin was “very clear.” He further stated, “There is no common ground when it comes to substance in policy.” In an interview with the BBC’s Good Morning Ulster, he remarked: “We’re going to significantly increase our representation here in the capital of Dublin and indeed across the country. And we will have a greater level of representation in the next Dáil than we did in the last one, and that’s having served in government when we had serious economic challenges.” Emer Currie of Fine Gael is among the newly elected TDs. The former Irish senator is the daughter of the late Austin Currie, a Northern Ireland politician and co-founder of the Social Democratic and Labour Party. Currie conveyed to Good Morning Ulster, “He would have been absolutely delighted,” and described her election as a “very special” occasion for her entire family. With her party poised to re-enter government, Currie suggested that the election outcome appeared to signal public satisfaction with the existing state of affairs. She commented, “It’s a statement that they felt that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were working well together.” Concurrently, Cian O’Callaghan, deputy leader of the Social Democrats, mentioned a “possibility of a coalition with left parties in it,” but noted that, based on the current results, a government composed solely of left parties would not be feasible. O’Callaghan has been re-elected in Dublin Bay North. In response to assertions that the left did not unify its message before the election, O’Callaghan stated: “I think every party needs to stand on their own two feet and make the case to the electorate as to why people should vote for them.” He added, “The reason we have different parties is because there is differences and it gives people a different choice as well in the election.” Lisa Keenan, an assistant professor of political science at Trinity College, Dublin, indicated that the Green Party would be “very disappointed” with its election results. She remarked, “They were going into in this election with 12 seats, they’ve lost all but one.” Keenan continued, “They were perceived to be lucky to hold on to that one – that’s the seat of their leader Roderic O’Gorman.” She concluded, “And I think for them it’s a little bit tough to take in a sense that in government they achieved many, many important policy wins.”