Donald Trump’s Government Control: Potential and Limitations

Donald Trump reiterated the phrase: “Promises made, promises kept” on election night. With Republicans now officially controlling Congress, fulfilling his “promises” becomes significantly more straightforward. In Washington’s political terminology, this scenario is known as “a governing trifecta,” occurring when the president’s party holds control over both legislative chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Donald Trump’s Republican Party currently possesses this level of control. While single-party control was historically frequent, it has grown less common and more fleeting in recent decades. Typically, the party holding power experiences a loss of seats during midterm congressional elections held two years later. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden experienced trifectas during their initial two years in the White House, yet they also observed that such control does not assure a president will always achieve their objectives. During his initial two years, Trump successfully enacted a significant tax bill, which decreased corporate taxes from 35% to 21% and lowered certain individual taxes. However, due to resistance from some within his own party following his unexpected rise in 2016, he encountered difficulties with other goals. His initiative to repeal the Affordable Care Act (known as Obamacare) did not succeed after Senator John McCain, a member of his own party, declined to vote in favor of it. Additionally, he was unable to pass an infrastructure bill, contrary to his promises. During his first two years, with Democrats holding control of both the House and the Senate, Biden managed to pass the American Rescue plan, the Investment and Jobs Act, and the Chips and Science Act. Nevertheless, he also found it necessary to substantially reduce his spending and investment proposals, promoted as the Build Back Better package, following opposition from one of his own senators. A significant obstacle to complete control for any party is the requirement for Senate bills to secure a three-fifths majority, or 60 votes, to overcome the filibuster. This procedural tool allows senators to prolong legislative debate indefinitely, thereby delaying a vote. Consequently, a party holding a simple majority in the Senate must seek bipartisan cooperation to pass legislation. Despite holding a substantial Senate majority this time, Trump will not command the crucial 60 votes needed to thwart opposition efforts to delay legislation. Furthermore, on Wednesday, Senate Republicans chose John Thune as their majority leader, bypassing Florida’s Rick Scott, who was widely favored by the Trump camp. This decision suggests that some lawmakers might be reaffirming their independence (Trump did not officially endorse Scott). Nevertheless, a trifecta, when skillfully managed, does create opportunities for significant legislative undertakings. Trump’s enhanced power could be instrumental in advancing his major commitments, including the largest deportation of migrants in history, extensive tariffs on foreign imports, and the reversal of environmental protections. Implementing these objectives through legislation would render such plans considerably more difficult to overturn in the courts. This contrasts with Donald Trump’s first term, during which he frequently relied on executive orders that were often and successfully challenged. The judicial environment has also shifted to Trump’s advantage. A defining accomplishment of his first term involved appointing three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, thereby solidifying a two-thirds majority that could endure for decades. Additionally, he appointed over four dozen judges to federal appeals courts, thereby shifting several circuits towards a more conservative orientation. The Republican majority in the Senate also offers a significant benefit. Trump will find it easier to secure approval for his nominees for administration positions, a task he faced challenges with in 2017 when considerable internal opposition to him existed within the Republican Party. These circumstances suggest a busy and potentially turbulent period for the next two years. However, as recent history demonstrates, such trifectas are typically not long-lasting. The incoming administration will likely seek to act swiftly.