The cessation of a 13-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has commenced with the implementation of a ceasefire agreement. The United States and France affirmed that this accord is intended to “cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations operating from Lebanon”. Under the terms of the agreement, Hezbollah is allotted a 60-day timeframe to terminate its armed presence in southern Lebanon, concurrently with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the same region within the identical period. This information regarding the ceasefire is derived from the agreement document itself and official communications. On Tuesday night, US President Joe Biden informed journalists that the deal was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities”. The 13-point accord, established between the governments of Israel and Lebanon—excluding Hezbollah—further indicates that both nations are “prepared to take steps to promote conditions for a permanent and comprehensive solution”. The agreement stipulates that the Lebanese government commits to “prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel”. Conversely, Israel pledges to “not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, or other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon”. The foundation of this arrangement, as specified, is the “full implementation, without violation” of UN Security Council resolution 1701, which concluded the previous conflict in 2006. That resolution mandated, among other provisions, that Hezbollah withdraw its combatants and armaments from the territory situated between the Blue Line—the unofficial demarcation between Lebanon and Israel—and the Litani river, approximately 30km (20 miles) to the north. Israel contended that this resolution was never enforced, thereby enabling Hezbollah to establish substantial infrastructure within the zone, while Lebanon asserted that Israel’s transgressions encompassed military overflights of its airspace. Furthermore, the agreement highlights that the resolution reiterated prior Security Council demands for the “disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon”. President Biden stated that “Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt”. The ceasefire accord stipulates that Israeli forces are to relocate south of the Blue Line “in a phased manner” within a 60-day timeframe. Concurrently, troops from the Lebanese army will deploy “in parallel” to these positions. A high-ranking US official indicated that this measure was intended “to prevent any vacuums from being formed”. The agreement, without explicitly naming Hezbollah, mandates that the Lebanese army will “dismantle all infrastructure, and military positions, and confiscate all unauthorised arms” within the designated Southern Litani Area, in addition to preventing the illicit import of weapons into Lebanon and dismantling any unauthorized weapons manufacturing sites. The accord further specifies that “Lebanon’s official military and security forces, infrastructure and weaponry will be the only armed groups, arms, and related material deployed” in the Southern Litani Area. The sole exemption to this provision is the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, Unifil, which comprises approximately 10,000 personnel. The US official clarified that this implies Hezbollah would be required to withdraw its combatants and “all their heavy weaponry” to the northern part of the zone. A geographical representation of the Southern Litani Area illustrates its reach north of the river in certain places, particularly near the village of Yohmor, and its eastward extension to Hasbaya and Chebaa. The agreement outlines the eventual deployment of 10,000 Lebanese army troops to the southern region. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist regarding the forces’ function in upholding the ceasefire and their willingness to engage Hezbollah if necessary, a scenario that could intensify tensions in a nation marked by profound sectarian rifts. The Lebanese army has also communicated its lack of sufficient resources—financial, human, and material—to meet its commitments, though the agreement states that the US and France will collaborate with the international community to offer assistance and enhance its capacities. Numerous Western officials suggest that Hezbollah’s strength has diminished, presenting an opportune moment for the Lebanese government to reassert authority across the entirety of the nation’s territory. The United States and France are set to become part of the established Tripartite Mechanism, which includes Unifil, the Israeli military, and the Lebanese army, originally formed to facilitate resolutions on disputed matters. The ceasefire agreement specifies that the US will preside over the “reformulated and enhanced” mechanism, tasked with “monitor[ing], verify[ing] and assist[ing] in ensuring enforcement” of the commitments made by both parties. Israel and Lebanon are anticipated to report any purported breaches to this mechanism. The senior US official explained, “What this means is that the United States, both through diplomats and military personnel, is going to be receiving any complaints by either side.” The official added, “Information can flow on a real time basis to make sure that any potential violations are deterred.” The official additionally emphasized that “there will be no US combat troops in the area”. The agreement explicitly states that “these commitments do not preclude either Israel or Lebanon from exercising their inherent right of self-defence, consistent with international law”. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared on Tuesday night that Israel would “maintain full freedom of military action” in Lebanon “with the United States’ full understanding”. He affirmed, “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.” President Biden endorsed this stance, informing reporters: “If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defence consistent with international law.” However, Lebanese officials indicated their opposition to any infringements upon Lebanon’s sovereignty.

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