Democrats’ expectation of strong female voter turnout for Harris was not met

Amidst an election characterized by numerous uncertainties, a strong expectation was that women throughout the US would significantly support Kamala Harris. Consistent polling over several months indicated Harris was virtually tied with Donald Trump, and concurrently, many of these polls highlighted a substantial gender disparity. This formed a key strategy for Harris’s campaign, which aimed for strong female voter turnout to offset potential deficits in other demographics. This anticipated outcome did not materialize. While most women nationwide voted for Harris, her support did not reach the historical levels deemed necessary. Preliminary exit poll data indicates that Harris’s overall lead among women, approximately 10 points, was four points less than Joe Biden’s in 2020. Democrats experienced a 10-point decline in support from Latino women and showed no progress with non-college educated women, who, according to initial figures, again favored Trump by a margin of 63-35. This deficit was not due to a lack of effort. During her 15-week campaign, a significant portion of Harris’s campaign messaging specifically targeted women, notably through her focus on abortion rights. On her campaign appearances, Harris consistently positioned reproductive rights as a central theme of her appeal. She frequently reminded the electorate that Trump had previously boasted about his involvement in the reversal of Roe v Wade, a decision that eliminated the constitutional right to abortion across the nation. At her concluding address in DC last week, Harris stated, “I will fight to restore what Donald Trump and his hand-selected Supreme Court justice took away from the women of America.” Her most impactful advertisements showcased women who had experienced hardship due to state abortion prohibitions, which Harris labeled “Trump abortion bans,” including individuals who reported being refused care for miscarriages. The apparent strategy was to leverage the same strong support for abortion access that contributed to the Democrats’ surprising performance in the 2022 midterms. Abortion rights continue to enjoy widespread popularity; a Gallup poll conducted in May indicated that merely one in 10 Americans believed it should be prohibited. These election outcomes appeared to reinforce this sentiment, as seven of the 10 states with abortion-related measures on the ballot approved abortion rights. However, this broad support did not translate into increased backing for Harris. Evan Roth Smith, a pollster and campaign consultant, commented that abortion was indeed important to women, but not to a sufficient degree. He explained, “Voters – particularly the women – who feel strongest about abortion are already voting for Democrats.” Nevertheless, Democrats struggled to elevate the significance of abortion for women who did not yet perceive it as an an urgent concern. Mr. Smith stated, “The abortion argument did not penetrate at all with non-college educated women, did not move them an inch. And they lost ground with Latinos.” For a significant number of voters, the economy emerged as the pivotal issue. Pre-election surveys and initial exit poll data consistently showed inflation and affordability as primary concerns for the electorate. Among these voters, Trump was the clear preference. Jennifer Varvar, a 51-year-old independent voter from Grand Junction, Colorado, indicated that she had not even contemplated voting for Harris due to the financial difficulties she experienced during the previous four years. She remarked, “For me and my family, we’re in a worse position now than we ever have been financially. It’s a struggle. I have three boys to put food on the table for.” She added that conditions had improved under Trump, which influenced her vote for him. However, even if gender did not segment the electorate as some anticipated, certain analysts suggest it still contributed to Harris’s defeat. While numerous explanations have been proposed for Trump’s decisive victory, some observers highlight a particular factor. Patti Solis Doyle, who managed Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, told Politico, “I do think that the country is still sexist and is not ready for a woman president.” In contrast to Clinton, who openly embraced her gender and the historic nature of her campaign, Harris appeared notably hesitant to adopt a similar approach. A common perception exists that the nation is more prepared for a female president now compared to Clinton’s second presidential bid in 2016. Nevertheless, this remains an unresolved issue. An October Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 15% of respondents would be unwilling to vote for a female president. Donald Trump, who emphasized masculinity throughout this election, may have contributed to leveraging this sentiment. Mr. Smith commented, “He framed being president as being a tough guy in a dangerous world… he framed that as the job description.” He added, “And that’s one of the hardest possible job descriptions for a woman to successfully meet, in the minds of many Americans.”