Defence Minister Warns British Army Could Be “Expended” in Major Conflict Within Six Months

A defence minister has cautioned that the regular British army might be eliminated in as few as six months should it engage in a conflict comparable in scale to the war in Ukraine. Alistair Carns stated that a casualty rate akin to that experienced during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would result in the army being “expended” within a timeframe of six to 12 months. He emphasized that this highlights the necessity of maintaining reserves to effectively participate in a “war of scale.” According to official figures, the army comprised 109,245 personnel as of 1 October, a total that included 25,814 volunteer reservists. Carns, who is both a former Royal Marines colonel and a reservist, noted that Russia is incurring daily losses of approximately 1,500 soldiers, encompassing both killed and wounded personnel. He further elaborated, “In a war of scale – not a limited intervention, but one similar to Ukraine – our army for example on the current casualty rates would be expended, as part of a broader multinational coalition, in six months to a year.” During an address concerning reserves at the Royal United Services Institute defence think tank in London, Carns, who serves as the minister for veterans and people, stated: “That doesn’t mean to say we need a bigger army, but it does mean we must be able to generate depth and mass rapidly in the event of a crisis.” He continued, emphasizing: “The reserves are critical, absolutely central, to that process. “Without them we cannot generate mass, we cannot meet the plethora of defence tasks and challenges that we require, and we cannot seamlessly integrate the very best experts into the heart of our armed forces.” In a separate address at the same think tank, the head of the armed forces remarked that it was crucial to acknowledge only a “remote” possibility exists of Russia initiating a “significant direct attack or invasion” against the UK or any other Nato member. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin further asserted that Russia “knows the response would be overwhelming, whether conventional or nuclear.” However, he also noted that this situation underscores the necessity for nuclear deterrence to be “kept strong and strengthened,” cautioning that the world is now entering a “third nuclear age” after the Cold War and the subsequent era of disarmament. This emerging age, he explained, would be characterized by the “almost total absence of the security architectures that went before,” alongside an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons. He additionally stated that China’s growing nuclear weapons stockpile implies the United States might confront a “two-peer challenge” from both Beijing and Moscow, given that both nations maintain substantial arsenals. Army reservists dedicate their spare time to service, receiving payment for training conducted outside their primary occupations. Carns described the nature of conflicts like the one in Ukraine as “attritional in nature.” He further indicated that the UK ought to “catch up with Nato allies” by prioritizing its reserves more significantly. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence affirmed that the UK’s armed forces are “amongst the best in the world and offer a 24/7 defence of the UK, operating alongside our allies and partners to prepare for any event.” They continued by stating: “The Strategic Defence Review will look at the threats we face and the capabilities we need so that our Armed Forces are better ready to fight, more integrated and more innovative.” The spokesperson also added: “Our Reserves are an an essential and extremely valued element of the Armed Forces and the contributions they make to our resilience and our ability to call on additional personnel when required are vital.” Previously, the prime minister’s official spokesman mentioned that the Budget had “invested billions of pounds into defence.” Last month, Lieutenant General Sir Rob Magowan, Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff, informed MPs on the Defence Select Committee: “If the British Army was asked to fight tonight, it would fight tonight.“I don’t think anybody in this room should be under any illusion that if the Russians invaded eastern Europe tonight, then we would meet them in that fight.” Earlier on Wednesday, Foreign Secretary David Lammy called upon Nato’s European members to increase their defence spending in anticipation of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. The US president-elect has previously criticized European nations for depending on American taxpayers to fund their security. During a gathering of Nato’s foreign ministers in Brussels, Lammy declared that “the time to act is now,” even though the UK government has not yet detailed its strategies for elevating its defence expenditure to 2.5% of national output. He drew attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its participation in global conflicts, such as those in the Middle East. He added: “In the United Kingdom, we are at 2.3%, heading to 2.5% as soon as we can get there, and we urge all allies across the Nato family to get serious about defence spending.” Lammy concluded: “All of our populations require us to understand the tremendous security challenges that we are facing at this time.” Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.