Data-Driven Selection for a British and Irish Lions XV from the Autumn Internationals

Ireland coach Andy Farrell is set to commence his tenure as head coach of the British and Irish Lions on December 1. As the 12-month countdown to a Lions tour progresses, the autumn international matches frequently serve as the moment when supporters and commentators begin to consider potential selections for the Lions XV. Following the recent conclusion of the last complete set of fixtures, an analysis has been conducted, utilizing data, to identify the British and Irish players who distinguished themselves during the Autumn Nations Series. The selection of the series’ top XV is made possible through the distinctive Opta Index, a system that objectively evaluates each player’s performance across the campaign, with these choices substantiated by relevant statistics. Scotland has seven players included in the team, potentially aided by a comparatively less demanding fixture list, while England and Ireland each provide four players. Wales’ challenging autumn campaign resulted in no players making the final selection, though individuals such as Jac Morgan, James Botham, and Dewi Lake were noted as being close to inclusion. Jordan is slated to transfer from Glasgow Warriors to Bristol at the commencement of the upcoming season. The fly-half from Glasgow earned his first cap for Scotland during this year’s Autumn Nations Series, playing in the full-back position, where he adapted effectively. Among players eligible for the Lions who participated for 100 minutes or more, he was the sole individual to achieve over 100 metres gained per game (104). He also placed among the top three for line breaks (2.1), defenders beaten (6.2), and offloads (2.1) per 80 minutes. Four of Graham’s tries during the autumn period were scored in the 57-17 victory against Fiji. Following an extended absence due to injury, Darcy Graham made his comeback to international play, resuming his previous form by scoring a total of five tries, which was more than any other player in the Autumn Nations Series. Furthermore, he recorded the highest average for line breaks (2.1) and the second-highest for defenders beaten (6.8) per game among all British or Irish players this autumn (with a minimum of 100 minutes played). Scotland contributed eight players to the 2021 Lions tour to South Africa, and Jones is expected to aim for inclusion in another substantial group for the tour to Australia. Huw Jones consistently performs well for Scotland, and he demonstrated his peak form again this month, scoring two tries and setting up two more, making him the only player from any nation to achieve multiple tries and multiple try assists. He also facilitated five line breaks, the highest number for any player outside the half-back positions, and he recorded the joint-highest number of line breaks among British or Irish players with six, matching Darcy Graham. Aki was in the starting lineup for the third and crucial Test match against South Africa during the Lions’ previous tour. At 34 years old, Bundee Aki maintains his vital role in the Irish midfield, once again demonstrating his status as a primary attacking option this autumn. Aki achieved an average of 2.1 line breaks per 80 minutes, with only Graham (by a small margin) recording more among players eligible for the Lions. Van der Merwe has accumulated a record 30 tries for Scotland. The Edinburgh winger holds the distinction for the most defenders beaten in a single Six Nations campaign, and it is unsurprising that he led the statistics in this category during the Autumn Nations Series with 22. This autumn, Duhan van der Merwe and Graham vied for the title of Scotland’s all-time leading try scorer in men’s Test rugby history, with Van der Merwe taking the lead after scoring a try against Australia. Smith demonstrated his adaptability this autumn by occasionally playing in a full-back position. Marcus Smith achieved the highest point total of any player in this year’s Autumn Nations Series, with 53 points, successfully converting 22 out of 26 goal kicks, including all nine of his penalty attempts. His kicking precision also extended to open play, where he executed two 50-22 kicks, a feat matched only by France’s Thomas Ramos. Furthermore, only Antoine Dupont, with eight, recorded more line break assists than Smith’s seven this month. Spencer earned his inaugural start for England against New Zealand, following six previous appearances as a replacement for his national team. The number nine position for the Lions remains highly contested, and the Bath scrum-half significantly bolstered his prospects this month. His average of 1.3 line breaks per 80 minutes was the highest among all British or Irish scrum-halves, and his kicking performance was also robust. England colleague Jack van Poortvliet, who executed more kicks than Spencer, was the sole scrum-half from any nation to have more kicks retained, with five compared to Spencer’s four. Pierre Schoeman, who was born in South Africa, made his debut for Scotland in 2021 after qualifying through residency. His consistent presence in the number one jersey indicates that he is often a primary selection for coach Gregor Townsend’s Scotland XV; however, irrespective of his specific position, he stands as one of Scotland’s most crucial players. The 30-year-old has been a starter in 20 of Scotland’s 21 matches against top-tier opponents since the start of the 2022-23 season. He performed exceptionally well again this month, completing 36 tackles without a single miss, with Ireland’s James Ryan being the only British or Irish player to execute a greater number of dominant tackles. George assumed the captaincy for England from his former Saracens teammate, Owen Farrell. Jamie George maintained his consistent performance at the line-out, successfully connecting with an England player on 30 out of his 31 throws. His 97% success rate was the highest among the 16 hookers who attempted 15 or more throws during the Autumn Nations Series. He also demonstrated effectiveness with the ball in hand; only Peato Mauvaka, with 100 metres, surpassed George’s 67 metres gained among front-row players, and George also contributed two tries this autumn. Fagerson participated in the 2021 Lions tour to South Africa but did not appear in any of the three Test matches. Zander Fagerson averaged 32.5 rucks hit per 80 minutes this autumn. Among British and Irish players who featured for 160 minutes or more, only three—Josh van der Flier, Maro Itoje, and Rory Darge—recorded a superior rate than the Scottish prop, who achieved the highest total among all front-row players. In scrum situations, Scotland secured seven penalties on their own put-in while Fagerson was positioned in the front row. Gerhard Steenekamp of South Africa was the sole other prop involved in an equal number of penalty-winning instances, also seven. Itoje, who was recently appointed captain of his club Saracens, is considered a potential candidate to lead the Lions. As one of only three English players to participate in every minute of England’s Autumn Nations Series campaign, Itoje secured five turnovers, surpassing all other players in this month’s Test matches. No other British or Irish player recorded more attacking rucks hit per 80 minutes than Itoje (27.3), and he was also the only English player to average 10 or more defensive rucks hit per 80 minutes (11.8). Beirne was included in World Rugby’s men’s team of the year for 2024 on Sunday. Despite two of his three appearances being in the back row, Tadhg Beirne is positioned in the second row for our team, a role where 80% of his starts for Ireland have occurred. He served as Ireland’s primary line-out target this month, successfully claiming 11 line-outs, including one steal, and also ranked among the top three Irish players for tackles (41), turnovers (3), and rucks (60). Fagerson earned his 50th cap for Scotland during the weekend’s victory against Australia. Matt Fagerson is anticipated to aspire to join a Lions tour next summer, mirroring his brother Zander’s participation in