Cuba’s Tourism Sector Faces Blackout Challenges and Potential Trump Administration Policies

As winter approaches in North America, Canadian “snowbirds”—citizens who annually escape cold temperatures for sunnier climates—are making plans for their yearly trips to Florida or the Caribbean. Traditionally, Cuba has been a highly favored destination for Canadians, drawn to the pristine white sands of beach resorts such as Varadero. These visitors fill the gap left by Americans, who are cautious due to travel restrictions imposed under the ongoing US economic embargo against the Caribbean’s largest island. Data indicates that nearly one million Canadian tourists visited Cuba last year, making Canada the leading country of origin for visitors by a significant margin. Consequently, a recent decision by Sunwing Vacations Group, a Canadian tour operator and one of Cuba’s primary travel partners, to remove 26 hotels from its Cuban offerings, represents a setback for the island’s struggling tourism sector. Sunwing made this choice after Cuba experienced a four-day nationwide blackout at the end of October, attributed to failures within the country’s aging energy infrastructure. This was followed by another national power cut last month, when Hurricane Rafael traversed the island, exacerbating an already severe electricity crisis. A third countrywide blackout then occurred on Wednesday, 4 Dec, following the breakdown of Cuba’s largest power plant. Samantha Taylor, Sunwing’s chief marketing officer, informed the Pax News travel website last month that “Cuba has had some volatility in the last few weeks and that may shake consumer confidence.” She emphasized that the company is not withdrawing from Cuba entirely, stating, “There are incredible places to go in Cuba,” but added, “But we also recognise that if clients are a little uncomfortable, we need to give them options.” Specifically, this involved compiling a list of what they termed “hidden gems”—alternative vacation spots in the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, and Colombia. The implications for Cuba are evident. With tourism now serving as the island’s principal economic motor and, after remittances, the main source of foreign currency earnings, it is a significant concern that a major tour operator is directing its clients toward other countries’ beaches due to issues with crumbling energy infrastructure. Lessner Gómez, director of the Cuban Tourism Board in Toronto, stated that “Our message to Canadians is that tourism is one of the economy’s priorities.” In a statement, he added that “The Ministry of Tourism has been preparing for the winter season to deliver better services, uninterrupted supplies, a better airport experience, and more and new car rentals.” While Cuba’s tourism agency endeavors to alleviate concerns regarding the extent of the electricity blackouts, it is widely acknowledged that these have been exceptionally challenging months for the island. Hurricane Rafael was merely the latest storm to impact Cuba during an intense Atlantic hurricane season, characterized by increasingly powerful and frequent storms becoming the norm. Severe weather is, of course, a challenge across the Caribbean. However, Cuba faces additional complexities. Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House and his selection of Marco Rubio for Secretary of State are poised to further complicate life for Cubans. Jesús Arboleya, a former Cuban diplomat, remarked, “This is probably the Cuban Revolution’s hardest moment.” He continued, “And unfortunately, I see nothing on the horizon whatsoever which allows for an optimistic view of the future of US-Cuba relations.” Mr. Arboleya further noted that “Donald Trump has handed US policy towards Cuba to those sectors of the Cuban American right who have essentially lived off anti-Castro policies since their origins.” He identified Marco Rubio, currently a US Senator for Florida, as the leading voice among them. Rubio is a Cuban American who has long opposed the communist government in Havana. His parents relocated to the US in 1956, three years before Fidel Castro assumed power, but his grandfather fled the island after Castro’s shift to communism. Rafael Hernández, a Cuban political commentator and editor of Temas magazine, echoed these sentiments, stating, “People are horrified by the idea of another Donald Trump presidency. It spells real trouble.” He contended that current US policy toward Cuba is “somewhat schizophrenic.” Hernández explained, “On the one hand, the State Department facilitates support to the private sector, and [pushes for] economic changes in Cuba. But on the other hand, Congress and Senate seem to freeze any advances on those reforms.” The expectation, however, is that a future Secretary of State Rubio would unify US policy on Cuba around a single objective: exerting maximum pressure on the island by intensifying already stringent sanctions. Cubans fear this could entail the suspension of commercial flights to Cuba or even the closure of the US Embassy in Havana, which officially reopened in 2015 following decades of strained diplomatic relations. If implemented, such measures would be deliberately designed to further harm Cuba’s struggling tourism trade, aiming to impact the communist-run nation during a vulnerable period. Tourist numbers to Cuba have nearly halved since reaching a peak of almost five million visitors during the Obama-era détente with Cuba. Between 2015 and 2017, US visitors flocked to the island under more relaxed travel restrictions, eager to experience a country long inaccessible to them. Around the same time, the Cuban government initiated a significant hotel-building program, confident that demand would remain robust over the subsequent decade. However, Cuban tourism then suffered a dual blow from which it has not fully recovered. First, the Trump Administration reversed President Obama’s engagement policies, and subsequently, the Covid-19 pandemic caused the industry to enter a freefall. With many of these hotels now recording significantly lower occupancy rates than initially projected, and facing considerable difficulties in delivering the advertised five-star customer experience amidst blackouts and shortages, some observers question the wisdom of such a heavy initial investment in tourism. Economist Ricardo Torres, at the American University in Washington DC, posed the question: “Why has Cuba invested 38% [of government funds] on average over the past decade in hotels and infrastructure connected to international tourism, but only 8 to 9% on energy infrastructure?” He concluded, “It doesn’t make sense. The hotels run on electricity.” Despite all current challenges, most visitors agree that Cuba offers a unique travel experience. The classic elements—classic cars, cigars, and mojitos—continue to attract many, while others prefer to explore the island, immersing themselves in its history, culture, and music. Nevertheless, as indicated by tour operator Sunwing’s decision to scale back, some tourists are finding it difficult to appreciate Cuba during its energy crisis, particularly if it is poised to be worsened by a potentially hostile administration—and Secretary of State—in Washington.