COP29: Objectives, Challenges, and the Influence of Trump’s Election on Climate Negotiations

Global leaders convening for the United Nations’ most recent annual climate summit in Azerbaijan aim to reach agreements on measures to control increasing worldwide temperatures. A central topic for discussion involves strategies to provide greater financial assistance to developing nations, enabling them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and manage the escalating consequences of climate change. The choice of Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, as the host city for this gathering has drawn criticism due to the nation’s significant connections to the gas and oil industries. Furthermore, the electoral success of Donald Trump in the US, who is recognized as a climate sceptic, may divert attention, and several prominent leaders are notably absent. COP29 represents the foremost global assembly concerning climate change. Organized under the leadership of the UN, this 29th iteration of the event for 2024 is scheduled from 11-22 November. The conference is taking place in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, a Central Asian nation situated between Russia and Iran. The acronym COP signifies “Conference of the Parties.” The term “Parties” designates the nations that have formally approved the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) treaty. This foundational document was endorsed in 1992 by nearly 200 countries. The COP functions as the primary decision-making entity associated with this accord, with delegates from these nations convening annually to deliberate on optimal strategies for addressing the fundamental drivers of climate change. An estimated 40,000 to 50,000 delegates are anticipated at COP29, comprising representatives from all UN member states and the EU. Diplomats, climate scientists, trade union leaders, and environmental activists are also participating. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stated at the conference his desire for the UK to adopt more “ambitious” climate objectives. Among other participants is UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Nevertheless, the leaders of several major economies—and significant carbon-emitting nations—are conspicuously absent from COP29. US President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping, and France’s Emmanuel Macron are not present. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s Olaf Schulz, and India’s Narendra Modi will similarly not be in attendance. Their non-attendance stems from various factors, yet it carries the potential to diminish the conference’s importance. Attending leaders are also preoccupied with numerous other concerns, such as two costly and challenging conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside worldwide financial difficulties. Oxford University’s Prof Thomas Hale observed, “No world leader is arriving with climate change at the number one spot in their inbox.” Additionally, there is a prevailing sentiment that Azerbaijan lacks the diplomatic or financial influence necessary to achieve a substantial agreement. Many leaders believe that greater progress is probable at COP30, scheduled for November 2025 in Brazil. At COP29, prominent experts, including former UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, declared that the COP process is “no longer fit for purpose.” They further stated: “Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity.” A central concern this year revolves around financing. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, saw world leaders commit to endeavoring to limit the increase in global temperatures to no more than 1.5C. Achieving this requires nations to intensify their initiatives to reduce greenhouse gases. As part of this accord, countries pledged to establish a new financial target for developing nations by 2025. This funding is intended to assist emerging economies in reducing their carbon emissions and adapting to the most severe effects of rising temperatures. Reaching consensus on a new finance target is considered crucial for fostering trust between wealthy and less wealthy nations, given that past performance has been suboptimal. African countries and small island states advocate for total climate finance to exceed $1 trillion annually by 2030. Historically, nations such as China and the Gulf States have been categorized as developing economies, thus exempt from contributing to these funds. The EU and other affluent nations assert that this classification must be revised if the total financial contributions are to be augmented. National governments’ strategies for addressing climate change within their own borders also present a complex challenge. These action plans require updates every five years, with the subsequent deadline in February 2025. While some countries will unveil their strategies at this COP, if these plans are insufficient and appear improbable to prevent global warming from surpassing 1.5C, it could lead to disputes with nations most vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, the status of fossil fuel agreements reached at previous climate discussions remains uncertain. Indications emerged at the G20 talks earlier in 2024 suggesting that certain countries intended to retract commitments to transition away from burning oil, coal, and gas. Significant UN negotiations on nature conservation similarly failed in Colombia in October, following nations’ inability to concur on essential objectives. Azerbaijan intends to substantially increase its gas production, by as much as one-third, over the coming decade. Some commentators express concern that a nation with such an objective is hosting a conference dedicated to moving away from fossil fuels. These fuels are a primary contributor to climate change, as their combustion for energy releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, which warm the planet. The BBC has also reported worries that Azerbaijani officials are leveraging the climate conference to attract greater investment in the nation’s state-owned oil and gas company. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev informed the conference that oil and gas constitute “a gift of god,” and that nations should not face censure for possessing or trading them internationally. Soon after, Mr. Guterres conveyed to the conference that intensifying the reliance on fossil fuels was “absurd.” Significant reservations also exist regarding the decision to host the meeting in a country with a documented poor human rights record, where political dissent is suppressed. The US president-elect is recognized as a climate sceptic who has labeled initiatives to promote green energy a “scam,” and his electoral triumph is viewed by climate experts as a considerable impediment. While he will not personally attend COP29, the delegation representing President Biden will advocate for advancements, yet they acknowledge that any agreements reached will not be binding on the incoming administration. Following Trump’s election, the US is anticipated to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and cease providing financial contributions. Nevertheless, it is also conceivable that Trump’s re-election could foster a renewed sense of solidarity among other leaders, potentially forming a coalition to agree on a significant financial measure for less affluent nations. Experts contend that the climate crisis, along with the global collective response to it, will persist beyond a second Trump term. The climate’s warning signals are at their most urgent. Projections from the European climate service indicate it is now “virtually certain” that 2024, a year marked by severe heatwaves and lethal storms, will be the warmest year globally on record. The effects of warmer oceans were evident with the extremely powerful hurricanes Helene and Milton striking the US during the summer. The catastrophic flooding in Spain in October, which resulted in at least 200 fatalities, was also exacerbated by elevated sea temperatures in the Mediterranean. Prof Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London clarified, “Climate change is a cumulative problem. That means that with every year of delay, there is additional warming that we commit our planet to. Now is the time that we need to take action.” In the immediate future, COP agreements possess the capacity to reshape national economic development, for instance, by promoting the expansion of green energy. This can influence energy sources and consumer costs on utility bills. Such agreements can also obligate countries to allocate substantial funds to support less affluent nations. In the UK, these contributions presently originate from taxpayer-funded aid budgets, though substantial contributions from private financial institutions are anticipated. Over the long term, these discussions endeavor to establish a safer, cleaner global environment for all and avert the most severe consequences of climate change.