Christmas Dinner Costs Reduced by Lower Turkey and Brussels Sprout Prices

This year, consumers can expect a slightly reduced cost for their Christmas dinner at supermarkets, attributed to decreases in the prices of turkey and Brussels sprouts. According to research conducted for the BBC, Brussels sprouts have seen a 12% price reduction, and a 10lb (4.55kg) frozen turkey is £1.21 cheaper compared to the previous year. However, further investigation revealed an increase in the cost of root vegetables this year, a consequence of wet weather conditions that postponed the planting season. The total expenditure for a family Christmas dinner, including all accompaniments, is projected to be £31.66 in 2024, a decrease from £32.18 last year. This trend indicates a deceleration in the rate of food price increases over the past year, coinciding with an easing of UK inflation. Retail tracking platform Assosia measured the year-on-year price fluctuations for items sold at Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi, and Lidl. Data from this platform indicates that turkey, a central component of the Christmas meal, has experienced a 6% price drop this year. Tom Copas, the managing director of Copas Turkeys in Cookham, Berkshire, stated that turkey prices have started to stabilise following a few “incredibly turbulent” years which had elevated the expenses associated with raising his poultry. Mr. Copas, whose family has been involved in turkey farming since 1957, further commented, “Hence we’re seeing incremental changes in prices year on year, rather than dramatic ones.” Nevertheless, Mr. Copas observed a decline in sales volume and an increased preference for smaller turkeys this year, suggesting that consumers might be exercising greater financial caution. He remarked, “It’s possibly people are trying to keep the overall basket spend down.” A 500g bag of Brussels sprouts is now 12p less expensive than it was last year. John Inglis, senior commercial manager at ESG Drysdale, a prominent UK sprout producer, noted that the preceding two years, marked by hot summers and abrupt cold snaps, had presented challenges for growers. However, he indicated that this year has brought a return “back to normality” following “a couple of tricky seasons,” leading to a resurgence in sprout growth. This price adjustment might not impact all consumers, given that Brussels sprouts are a vegetable known to divide opinion. A YouGov survey conducted earlier this year revealed that a quarter of Britons express a dislike for them, with this particular brassica enjoying greater popularity among older demographics. Root vegetables accounted for the most significant price fluctuations observed in our Christmas shopping basket. Maris Piper potatoes experienced a substantial 26% price surge, with a standard 2kg bag rising from £1.58 to £1.99. Tracy Bush, co-director of Provenance Potatoes in Kent, attributed the recent increase in potato prices largely to adverse weather conditions. She explained, “We’ve had a particularly wet spring so planting was difficult for any root crops, and then the autumn when crops are lifted and harvested, that was also very difficult.” Carrot farmer Rodger Hobson stated that the identical wet weather conditions postponed this year’s carrot planting season. The previous year’s severe weather necessitated carrot imports by supermarkets. This year, their price has increased by 13.4% to 69p per kilo. However, Mr. Hobson indicated he would not be surprised if “when it comes to Christmas week they’ll be down to 20p a kilo.” This practice is due to carrots frequently being designated as “loss leaders” by supermarkets, meaning they are sold below cost to entice shoppers to purchase higher-margin products. Ged Futter, a retail specialist and former buyer for Asda, explained that supermarkets significantly lower their prices in the week leading up to Christmas. He commented, “Every year they do the same thing,” observing that retailers typically compete for customers by offering reduced prices on “potatoes, carrots, parsnips, Brussels spouts.” Mr. Hobson suggested that perishable goods serve as effective loss leaders because consumers are unable to accumulate large quantities when prices are low. He added that if supermarkets were to decrease the price of non-perishable goods such as baked beans, customers might be inclined to purchase a year’s worth of supply in December. While beneficial for consumers, Mr. Futter emphasized that these prices, set below cost, “don’t show the true cost to the farmer” and can contribute to substantial food waste. He asserted, “People think that food is cheap to produce – that’s not true.” Price increases this year extended beyond the main course, with the cost of Christmas desserts also rising. Assosia’s research indicates that Christmas pudding is 11% more costly than in 2023, and mince pies have increased by 5%. Jessica White, owner of Meg Rivers artisan bakery, stated: “Our costs have indeed gone up of ingredients, packaging, wages and like everyone – electricity.” However, she mentioned that her company opted against raising prices this year. She reported that they have already sold out of Christmas puddings and were required to produce additional quantities to satisfy the waiting list, adding, “We make more and more each year and don’t notice a drop in demand.” BBC News also investigated potential variations in Christmas dinner costs based on different retail outlets. Prices were compared across the websites of the UK’s five leading supermarkets: Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, and Aldi. A single-day snapshot, which excluded loyalty card pricing, suggested that Aldi offered the most economical option for a fundamental list of Christmas essentials, priced at approximately £24.30. Asda ranked as the second most affordable at £28.22, with Morrisons and Sainsbury’s following. Tesco was identified as the most expensive at £36.51. In the previous year, our findings indicated Morrisons was the priciest, and Tesco was third. Although efforts were made to identify comparable items across all five supermarkets, minor discrepancies in product sizes or types exist. Consequently, the total cost of a Christmas dinner may differ depending on the chosen supermarket and specific items. Furthermore, prices are expected to fluctuate as Christmas approaches, due to intensifying competition among supermarkets. The BBC’s analysis should not be directly contrasted with the price increase data from retail analysis firm Assosia, as each uses a somewhat different selection of items for comparison. Begin with a budget: Plan in advance and account for less obvious costs, such as tin foil for roasting a turkey. Further information from the BBC Food team is available here. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC bears no responsibility for the content found on external websites. Details regarding our external linking policy can be accessed here.