China’s Potential Increased Role in Climate Action Amidst Possible US Retreat

A WhatsApp message arrived from the chief negotiator of a highly influential nation participating in the COP climate summit. He inquired if a brief discussion was possible. While his team worked diligently on computers, consuming takeout pizza, he voiced his frustration regarding the obstructive conduct of numerous other delegations at the conference. This sentiment was not uncommon. Others had echoed similar complaints throughout the week, labeling it the worst COP ever, noting that negotiation documents, which should condense as deadlines near, were instead expanding, and suggesting that the COP, in its current format, might be failing. A significant concern overshadowing these proceedings was the prospect of US president-elect Donald Trump withdrawing the United States from the COP framework upon assuming office for a second term. He has previously characterized climate action as a “scam” and, during his victory celebration in West Palm Beach earlier this month, pledged to elevate US oil production beyond its existing record levels, stating, “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world”. However, one positive aspect emerged: China. The chief negotiator informed me, “It’s the only bright spot in all of this is.” He observed that China’s negotiating approach was notably different from prior years and, as he put it, “China could be stepping forward.” Further indication of this potential shift surfaced at the conference’s outset when China publicly released details of its climate funding. Traditionally, China has provided minimal information concerning its climate policies