China Welcomes Myanmar’s Military Chief on Inaugural Post-Coup Visit

Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, is undertaking his initial trip to China since he deposed the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The substantial setbacks his administration has encountered in the civil conflict at the hands of less-equipped insurgents have prompted doubts regarding the duration of his continued leadership. Consequently, the invitation to visit China – a crucial ally, neighbor, and Myanmar’s primary trading partner – holds significant weight, despite not being a formal state visit. This visit is far from a Chinese endorsement of his poor management of the post-coup turmoil in Myanmar, yet it does suggest that Beijing considers him an essential component for resolving the conflict there. Heading a sizable delegation of government officials and business figures, Min Aung Hlaing landed on Tuesday in Kunming, a city located in Yunnan province, which shares an extensive border with Myanmar. He is participating in a smaller conference of nations within the so-called Greater Mekong Sub-region. The besieged leader has remained largely isolated since the coup, having been avoided by regional assemblies typically attended by Burmese officials. His limited foreign travel since 2021 has primarily been to Russia, currently a firm ally. Throughout his stay, he is anticipated to convene with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who is chairing the summit. Nonetheless, this event is otherwise a modest gathering, with participation from leaders of other autocratic regimes in the region, such as Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. China consistently regards the symbolic weight of diplomatic procedures with gravity and will be mindful of the message conveyed by Min Aung Hlaing’s attendance at a meeting organized by China. This holds significance, following a belief that emerged over the last year that China could be intending to distance itself from Min Aung Hlaing, as the internal conflict has grown progressively expensive for Beijing. The coalition of ethnic insurgents, responsible for the most significant losses against the Myanmar armed forces, functions along the Chinese frontier and initiated its campaign twelve months prior with the stated aim of dismantling fraud operations that had victimized thousands of Chinese nationals. It was generally assumed that China, exasperated by the junta’s inaction, had authorized the insurgents to proceed. However, since that time, China has sought to control the rebels to avert a complete downfall of the military government in Nay Pyi Daw. Beijing is understood to be urging Min Aung Hlaing to establish a schedule for elections to terminate military governance. It desires the resumption of cross-border commerce and the safeguarding of extensive Chinese investment projects in Myanmar. Numerous factions opposing the military’s seizure of power in Myanmar have pledged not to engage in discussions with the coup’s architects. They contend that the armed forces should be permanently removed from Burmese political affairs and placed under civilian oversight, with a new federal governance structure implemented. The National Unity Government (NUG), representing the democratically chosen government overthrown by the coup, has expressed disapproval of the implied acknowledgment extended to the junta through China’s invitation to Min Aung Hlaing this week. Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the NUG, stated, “Myanmar’s people want stability, peace and economic growth. It is Min Aung Hlaing and his group who are destroying these things,” adding, “I am concerned that [the visit] will unintentionally incite a misunderstanding of the Chinese government among Myanmar’s public.” Nevertheless, the opposition remains far from overcoming the junta, and China apprehends that its downfall could lead to even greater disorder as various armed factions vie for control. It appears China is prepared to collaborate with the junta, notwithstanding the military government’s history of cruelty and inefficiency. Currently, diplomacy spearheaded by China constitutes the sole viable path, given the minimal Western impact. India, Myanmar’s other substantial neighbor, has predominantly focused on localized frontier matters. Furthermore, the initiatives by Asean, the Association of South East Asian Nations, to which Myanmar belongs – fundamentally a five-point agreement reached with Min Aung Hlaing merely three months post-coup – have yielded no progress. Only China possesses the dedication and leverage to undertake a credible effort to resolve Myanmar’s internal conflict.