Assad’s Overthrow: A Setback for Russia’s Global Stature

Russian military support had sustained Bashar al-Assad’s rule for almost ten years. This changed dramatically within the past 24 hours. Damascus has fallen, Syria’s president has been overthrown, and he has, according to reports, traveled to Moscow. Citing a Kremlin source, Russian news outlets and state television indicated that Russia provided asylum to Assad and his family “on humanitarian grounds.” Within a few days, the Kremlin’s involvement in Syria collapsed under highly dramatic conditions, which Moscow was unable to stop. The Russian foreign ministry issued a statement declaring that Moscow was “following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern.” The collapse of the Assad regime represents a setback for Russia’s standing. Russia’s deployment of thousands of troops in 2015 to bolster President Assad aimed, in part, to establish itself as a global power. This initiative marked Vladimir Putin’s initial significant challenge to the West’s influence and supremacy beyond the former Soviet sphere. It had appeared to be a successful endeavor. In 2017, President Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria, announcing that the mission was accomplished. Despite ongoing reports of civilian casualties from Russian airstrikes, the Russian defense ministry confidently brought international media to Syria to observe the Russian military operation. During one such visit, an officer reportedly stated that Russia was in Syria “for the long haul.” However, the engagement extended beyond mere prestige. In exchange for military aid, Syrian authorities granted Russia 49-year leases for the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval base. This provided Russia with a significant strategic presence in the eastern Mediterranean. These bases evolved into crucial centers for moving military contractors to and from Africa. A central concern for Moscow is the fate of these Russian bases going forward. The announcement regarding Assad’s arrival in Moscow additionally noted that Russian officials were communicating with representatives of “the Syrian armed opposition.” The state television anchor reported that opposition leaders had assured the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions within Syrian territory. Russia’s foreign ministry states that the bases in Syria have been placed “on a state of high alert,” but asserts there is “no serious threat to them at the current time.” Bashar al-Assad served as Russia’s most steadfast ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had made substantial investments in his leadership. Russian authorities will find it challenging to portray his overthrow as anything other than a disadvantage for Moscow. Nevertheless, efforts are underway to do so, including seeking scapegoats. On Sunday evening, Russia’s primary weekly state television news program criticized the Syrian army, seemingly attributing blame for its failure to resist the rebels. Anchor Yevgeny Kiselev stated: “Everyone could see that the situation was becoming more and more dramatic for the Syrian authorities. But in Aleppo, for example, positions were given up virtually without a fight. Fortified areas were surrendered one after another and then blown up, despite [government troops] being better equipped and outnumbering the attacking side many times over. It’s a mystery!” The anchor asserted that Russia “had always hoped for reconciliation [between different sides] in Syria.” He then concluded with the point: “Of course we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria. But our priority is Russia’s own security – what is happening in the zone of the Special Military Operation [Russia’s war in Ukraine].” This conveys an unambiguous message to the Russian populace. Despite Russia’s expenditure of resources over nine years to maintain Bashar al-Assad’s authority, the Russian public is now being informed that other concerns take precedence. Copyright 2024 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.