Assad’s Ouster Poised to Reshape Regional Power Dynamics

The downfall of Bashar al-Assad seemed almost inconceivable just a week prior, when insurgents launched their surprising offensive against the government from their stronghold in Idlib, located in Syria’s north-west. This marks a pivotal moment for Syria. Assad assumed leadership in 2000 following the demise of his father, Hafez, who governed the nation for 29 years—and, much like his son, “with an iron fist.” The younger Assad inherited a highly centralized and oppressive political framework where dissent was not tolerated. Initially, hopes emerged that he might adopt a different approach—more transparent, less severe. However, these expectations were short-lived. Assad will forever be associated with the brutal suppression of peaceful demonstrations against his administration in 2011, which ignited a civil conflict. Over half a million individuals lost their lives, and six million others became displaced persons. With assistance from Russia and Iran, he managed to quell the rebellion and maintain power. Russia employed its formidable air capabilities, while Iran dispatched military advisors to Syria, and Hezbollah, the militia it backs in neighboring Lebanon, deployed its experienced combatants. This support was absent on this occasion. His allies, preoccupied with their own matters, essentially abandoned him. Without their aid, his forces were incapable—and, in certain areas, seemingly unwilling—to halt the rebels, spearheaded by the Islamist militant organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). First, they captured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest metropolis, last week with minimal resistance. Subsequently, Hama fell, and days later, the crucial center of Homs. As insurgents also advanced from the eastern and southern fronts, the offensive isolated Damascus. Within a few hours, fighters entered the capital, the epicenter of Assad’s authority. The conclusion of the Assad family’s five-decade reign is expected to reconfigure the regional balance of power. Iran, once more, is witnessing a significant setback to its influence. Syria under Assad served as a crucial link between the Iranians and Hezbollah, vital for the transfer of weaponry and munitions to the group. Hezbollah itself has been considerably weakened after its year-long conflict with Israel, and its prospects remain uncertain. Another Iranian-backed faction, the Houthis in Yemen, have faced repeated aerial bombardments. All these groups, alongside militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, constitute what Tehran refers to as the “Axis of Resistance,” which has now sustained serious damage. This evolving situation will be welcomed in Israel, where Iran is perceived as an existential threat. Many observers believe this offensive could not have occurred without Turkey’s endorsement. Turkey, which provides support to some Syrian rebel factions, has denied assisting HTS. For some time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had urged Assad to engage in discussions to find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that would facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. At least three million of them reside in Turkey, making this a sensitive domestic concern. However, Assad had consistently declined to do so. Numerous individuals are pleased by Assad’s departure. Yet, what comes next? HTS has origins in al-Qaeda and a history of violence. They have spent recent years attempting to redefine themselves as a nationalist movement, and their latest communications convey a diplomatic and conciliatory tone. Nevertheless, many remain unconvinced and are apprehensive about their potential actions after overthrowing the regime. Concurrently, these dramatic shifts could create a perilous power vacuum, potentially leading to disorder and an escalation of violence.