Are More SNP MSPs Expected to Face Internal Party Challenges?

All politicians are aware that an upcoming election carries the risk of job loss. However, for members of the Scottish National Party (SNP), this risk can materialize earlier. Incumbent SNP politicians, serving in both the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) and the UK Parliament (Westminster), are subject to internal challenges for re-selection as candidates in every election cycle, even while holding their current positions. This internal dynamic gained prominence last week following the announcement by Stephen Flynn, the party’s Westminster leader, of his intention to seek the Holyrood candidacy for Aberdeen South and North Kincardine in 2026. This constituency is currently represented by fellow SNP member Audrey Nicoll, meaning local party members will now select between Mr. Flynn, Ms. Nicoll, and any other individuals who declare their candidacy. Several senior figures within the SNP anticipate that additional incumbent Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) will encounter comparable challenges. It is crucial to emphasize that this practice is not novel. In every election, incumbent SNP members face challenges from within the party ranks. Furthermore, some current Scottish government ministers commenced their Holyrood careers by successfully challenging an incumbent SNP MSP. Other political parties also utilize comparable internal selection processes. However, there is a question as to whether the upcoming Holyrood selection process might feature an increased number of internal SNP contests. It is worth noting that dozens of SNP Members of Parliament (MPs) lost their Westminster seats in the recent general election in July. Consequently, there is an expectation that some of these former MPs may seek to transition to Holyrood when suitable opportunities arise. A number of these individuals have submitted applications for vetting by party headquarters, which constitutes the initial stage for prospective candidates. Multiple pathways exist for entry into Holyrood. It is anticipated that several SNP figures will retire, and the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system also facilitates the return of MSPs via the regional list. Nevertheless, should suitable vacancies not emerge organically, some aspiring MSPs will be left with a single course of action: to challenge an incumbent. As one MSP stated: “We’ve got more politicians than seats we’re going to win.” Numerous SNP figures view this as a beneficial characteristic of the party, asserting that it is constructive for politicians to validate their re-selection. One MSP described it as a “safety valve” that prevents them from becoming overly complacent in their roles. Another individual reiterated this viewpoint but voiced apprehension regarding the potential for an “old-school Westminster style” of SNP politician to enter Holyrood in the upcoming election. Their concern appeared to stem from the belief that individuals who have served in the House of Commons have been shaped by a political culture perceived as more confrontational than that of Holyrood. However, it should be noted that other individuals have successfully transitioned from Westminster to Holyrood and appear to have adapted effectively. Given the expectation of increased challenges, the question arises whether incumbent MSPs are likely to be unseated. A party insider indicated that there is “frustration” among the SNP membership, as the prospect of independence appears more distant than in prior years, leading the party faithful to desire a change in personnel. This source further suggested that some MPs who recently lost their seats would represent an “upgrade” compared to certain individuals currently serving in Holyrood. Conversely, a former SNP MP interviewed rejected the notion that those who departed Westminster in July have abruptly shifted their focus to Holyrood. They highlighted that many have since assumed new positions outside of elected politics and are appreciating their release from the parliamentary routine. Considering these factors, the question remains as to why Stephen Flynn’s recent announcement has caused such significant internal discord within the party. Supporters of Mr. Flynn propose that other MSPs are upset by the possibility of encountering similar challenges themselves. However, some MSPs contend that the issue primarily concerns his intentions to hold seats in both Westminster and Holyrood concurrently, rather than his choice to challenge a fellow party member. Furthermore, there is a prevailing sentiment within the SNP that any internal contests should be conducted with sensitivity and respect. Not everyone in the party believes that the Aberdonian MP maintained this tone when declaring his intention to run. Commenting on Stephen Flynn’s challenge to Audrey Nicoll last week, SNP MSP George Adam informed BBC Scotland News that SNP politicians were “all meant to be very loyal.” With the anticipation of further challenges, this theory may well be put to the test in the coming weeks and months.