A Manchester Derby Marked by Struggles and Transitions

Manchester City, managed by Pep Guardiola, has secured only one victory in their last 10 games. Similarly, Ruben Amorim, the new head coach for Manchester United, has achieved one Premier League win in his four matches since assuming leadership of the Red Devils. Amorim, known for his direct communication, addressed his inaugural Manchester derby following his team’s 2-1 comeback Europa League triumph against Czech club Viktoria Plzen. He stated plainly, “It should be two great teams fighting for the title,” adding, “But it is not that at the moment. Both teams are struggling.” The current performance levels contribute to the unusual atmosphere surrounding this specific encounter between City and United, representing the blue and red sides of Manchester. Merely five weeks ago, Amorim was preparing his former club, Sporting, to play against City in the Champions League. Sporting’s impressive 4-1 victory, influenced by Amorim, marked the third game in a challenging period for the reigning champions, City, who have since won only once in their last 10 fixtures, during which they have conceded 23 goals. Following Amorim’s appointment last month as the successor to the dismissed Erik ten Hag, United has accumulated four points from four Premier League matches while adapting to an entirely new tactical framework. Their two most recent league fixtures resulted in losses to Arsenal and Nottingham Forest. Since the 1991-92 season, there has been only one instance where neither United nor City concluded the English top flight campaign in the top three positions. Currently, City occupies fourth place, while United is positioned 13th. This upcoming Manchester derby evokes memories of the 1980s, a period when both City and United were typically far from contending for the league title, and the various narratives surrounding Sunday’s match are intriguing. Manchester City has recorded only one win since October 26. According to City manager Pep Guardiola, this significant downturn in performance is attributable to the fixture congestion. Guardiola attributes the numerous injuries that have depleted his squad to the demanding schedule, highlighting the cruciate knee ligament damage sustained by Rodri as the most severe setback. The Ballon d’Or recipient is among a potential six senior City players who may be unavailable for the match against United. Rico Lewis’s suspension implies that Pep might have only three available defenders, potentially necessitating the deployment of Bernardo Silva or Matheus Nunes in a full-back role. Currently, he continues to field the same players, some of whom, including Phil Foden and Erling Haaland, are not performing at their peak. In late October, the day after City defeated Southampton, United experienced an unfortunate loss to West Ham. This result ultimately led to Erik ten Hag’s dismissal the following day. Concurrently, United’s sporting director, Dan Ashworth, was subsequently removed from his position after five months, a consequence of the protracted decision-making process concerning the Dutchman’s departure. Instead of appointing a successor who would align with the established system, such as Graham Potter or Gareth Southgate, United opted for a drastic change, recruiting Amorim from Sporting mid-season. The Portuguese coach is endeavoring to introduce a new tactical setup with minimal training opportunities and has already cautioned that this will be an extended undertaking. Guardiola remains steadfast in his commitment to a team that is exhibiting indications of aging. Kyle Walker, who faced racial abuse following the 2-0 loss to Juventus, and Germany midfielder Ilkay Gundogan are both 34 years old. Kevin de Bruyne, whose contract expires in the summer, is 33. A squad overhaul appears imminent. However, several of City’s recent acquisitions do not inspire confidence. Kalvin Phillips was purchased for £45m in 2022; the former Leeds midfielder was subsequently loaned to West Ham last season and is currently at Ipswich. Nunes has not yet validated the £53m City paid Wolves for him in 2023. City invested £85m in more recent signings, Jeremy Doku and Savinho, neither of whom has replicated the consistent influence of the departed Riyad Mahrez, 33, who now plays in Saudi Arabia. The decision to sell Julian Alvarez in the summer generated considerable discussion, but the Argentine player wished to leave. His £81m transfer to Atletico Madrid was considered a sound financial move. The mistake was not securing a replacement. Furthermore, Cole Palmer’s influence extends across both Manchester clubs: United, for permitting a lifelong supporter to join City, and City, for failing to retain a young talent who is emerging as one of English football’s prominent stars following his transfer to Chelsea. All these issues seem minor when compared to the challenges Amorim has encountered at United. In retrospect, it is understandable that the 39-year-old inquired about postponing his arrival until the season’s conclusion. Considering the club’s condition after Ralf Rangnick’s extended interim period following Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s dismissal in 2021, this request was inevitably denied. Amorim is now tasked with managing a squad assembled based on Ten Hag’s tactical philosophy. Amad Diallo has played extensively as a wing-back and right wing, but operated as a number 10 against Viktoria Plzen. Captain Bruno Fernandes has played as a number 10 and, this week, as a six. Marcus Rashford scored the initial goal of Amorim’s tenure as a centre-forward at Ipswich, but his manager acknowledges this is not his optimal position, a role in which Rasmus Hojlund has since excelled. Diogo Dalot has been deployed as both left and right wing-back. Mason Mount delivered an impressive second-half performance against Plzen after being brought on as a substitute. The identities of the two crucial central midfielders for this weekend’s match remain uncertain. With both clubs having published their 2023-24 financial statements, there is a clear understanding of their potential in the upcoming transfer window. Simply put, given the current Profit and Sustainability regulations, City, being profitable, possesses funds for transfers, whereas United, incurring significant losses, does not. On Friday, Guardiola downplayed discussions of January signings, stating he “just wants the injured players back.” Nevertheless, new acquisitions appear unavoidable. Central midfield is an apparent area for reinforcement, seeking a player capable of filling the void left by Rodri and also partnering with him upon his return. A move for Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes is a possibility, though alternative options exist across Europe if necessary. For United, the circumstances are considerably more complicated. Initially, it is unclear how many players Amorim desires for his squad and whether he has identified any as surplus. Selling a home-grown player such as Marcus Rashford would be advantageous under Profit and Sustainability regulations. Disposing of an underperforming, high-earning player like Antony could assist Amorim in enhancing his squad. However, the feasibility of selling either player without United contributing significantly through a substantially reduced transfer fee, a wage subsidy, or both, remains questionable. Co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe accurately observed last weekend in an interview that the club has become “mediocre.” It is widely believed that City’s current difficulties can be resolved with relative ease. Guardiola commented, “Without the injuries I don’t know the position we would be in but I can imagine,” adding, “I cannot prove it but everybody thinks we would be a better team.” The City manager also maintains that he has no regrets about signing a two-year contract extension last month, despite his team having just suffered four consecutive defeats. He stated: “I would not be able to sleep – even worse than now – if I thought I was leaving when the club is in this situation. Impossible.” He continued: “They might sack me, that could happen. But leaving now, in this position? No chance.” Guardiola further elaborated: “There are many things we have to do; go into the market at the right moment, maybe in winter or maybe the other one, to make the squad bigger, so they compete with each other to make the players better.” He concluded: “Nothing is eternal. You have to be honest. If I am losing and losing and losing, more and more, in the end I say, ‘guys, you have to get someone else to fix this’.” United’s challenges, however, are considerably more intricate. Amorim’s evaluation is, “We have a lot of issues,” and he added, “They [City] are in a better place than us.” United has suffered significant defeats in their last three matches at Etihad Stadium, and most impartial observers anticipate City possessing superior quality. Nevertheless, City also faces concerns. Guardiola’s long-standing associate, Txiki Begiristain, is set to depart in the summer, with Sporting technical director Hugo Viana named as his replacement, which will place him in opposition to Amorim after their previous collaboration. Crucially, the resolution of City’s substantial financial case is approaching, potentially introducing instability into transfer negotiations, even as City consistently asserts its innocence. In the immediate future, a United victory in the derby would see City fall out of the top four. Regardless of the outcome, United will stay in the bottom half of the league. In terms of the title race, this match holds almost no significance compared to past encounters. Yet, considering both clubs’ financial resources, storied histories, and impending uncertainties, these factors contribute to its compelling nature.